jan 16 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619gold1.png

Short Term Update:

 

Gold continued to move sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading around the 1289.20 level.

   

Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Within that first impulsive sequence, we have taken a very bullish approach with our count as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.   So far, we’ve been validated and the price pullback is almost non-existent after a huge rally!

 

We are now working on the assumption that only wave ?iii? ended at the 1300.40 high and that we are now correcting in wave ?iv?. If that is the case our retracement levels for wave ?iv? are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1279.20;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1266.10

 

On the Intraday Chart it is looking like wave ?iv? is becoming a bullish triangle. A break above 1300.40 now would confirm that the wave ?iv? bullish triangle is complete. This triangle could also extend and expand for another day or so. Once wave ?iv? ends we expect another push higher in wave ?v? to complete all of !iii!. Our next projected target for the end of wave ?v? and !iii! is:

 

!iii! = 2.168!i! = 1358.40.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was marginally lower yesterday’s day session and we are trading around 15.53.

 

Like gold we have adopted our very bullish count that is suggesting that wave ^iii^ of .i. is still underway. Our next projected target for its completion is :

 

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 16.94.

 

After this current consolidation within wave ^iii^ ends our next challenge will be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level, which expect will be breached.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session we have reached a high of 52.52!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (a) is now complete at the 42.21 low and that our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for all of wave (b) is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

In the short term we have now shown a possible 3 wave pattern within wave (b), and if this pattern is what crude is doing, then all of wave *a* of (b), could now be complete at the 53.31 high. Upon completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* setback that will then be followed by another rally in wave *c* to complete all of wave (b).

 

We are expecting that wave *b* should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *a* rally. Of course wave (b) could become much more complex than we are currently suggesting also.

 

Since we are rallying in a wave (b), we should expect this rally to be choppy and full of an overlapping wave structure.

 

Suncor: Suncor has confirmed that all of wave (i) is complete at the 25.81 low and that we continue to rally in wave (ii).

 

As a minimum the wave (ii) rally will have at least one 3 wave pattern, and is crude has now completed wave *a* of (b), then we should except that Suncor has completed its first leg higher within wave (ii), at the 31.34 high. We should expect that the wave (ii) rally retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.743{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.     

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We have shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart our first suggested count for the internal wave structure of wave (ii). It looks like wave $iii$ of *a* ended at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

If wave *iii* is now complete, then we should now be rallying in a small wave $iv$ corrective rally that has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.710;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.807.

 

We have already reached our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level. So we need to be guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another drop with wave $v$ of *a*, that will complete all of wave *a*.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat now.

 

Active Positions: Flat now.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619spd120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a high of 2613.08. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 7 points.

 

Bigger pic: We are continuing to drop  in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

Within wave (iii), we are now subdividing with wave .i. ending at 2346.58 and all or most of wave .ii. at the 2613.08 high. Our retracement level for all of wave .ii. are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2573.38;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2626.90.

 

We have now entered our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. now and the start of a very sharp drop in wave .iii. of (iii). We also have another projection for end of wave .ii. at:

 

*c* = *a* = 2617.65.  

 

Once wave .ii. ends we expect a very sharp drop in wave .iii. and we will provide our initial projection for its completion, once we believe that all of wave .ii. is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with an updated call as a stop!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session as we reached a high of 95.89. In the overnight session we moved lower to reach a low of 95.48.  

 

We still believe that wave (iii) lower is now underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

Expect lower prices ahead, after this current corrective rally ends, which we expect to happen very soon.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75!

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619ng.png

Short Term Update:

 

NG was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 3.385, although we have since recovered some of those losses to currently be trading at the 3.551 level.

 

Our current count needs to be updated. More details coming.

 

We are looking at dropping NG and replacing this market with another in the next week or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1619gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX has lower in yesterday’s trading session, and we reached 20.42.

 

In yesterday’s Morning Post we said this: ”We have now completed the minimum requirements for our possible wave *iv* bullish triangle formation, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart…. Although it might now be possible that this triangle formation is going to extend and extend for a few more days. This will be confirmed if we now trade below the current wave ^c^ low of 20.69. This will change nothing expect to delay our expect wave *v* thrust higher.”

 

That is what happened and we have updated our wave *iv* bullish triangle accordingly on the 60 in GDX Chart.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^c^ is complete at the 20.42 low and if it is then we should expect this market to now rally in wave ^d^ back towards our upper red trendline that marks the wave *iv* triangle boundaries.  

 

Only a break of the wave ^a^ low of 19.80 would eliminate this current wave *iv* triangle pattern.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!