Jan 12 End of Day Captain Ewave Update


Gold was up in the day session, hitting a  high of 1236.00, at the time that this post is being written. As we suggested in today's Morning Post we are expecting gold to rally above the 1239 high in the next 24 to 48 hours, and we almost made it there today. We expect higher prices this week, and the rate of change will depend on when the USDX finally tops out, which we believe will be very soon.

We will be adding 2 long positons at 1239.10, and at that time will be also raising our stops to the 1167 level.

We remain long all previous positions, with stops at 1141.70.



In today's day session crude was significantly lower, reaching a low of 45.85, at the time that this post was written. This market is heavily oversold and has now completed the minimum requirements for a completed five wave impulsive drop from the wave -iv- of (v) of iii high of 56.59. At the moment, however, we do not see any indication of an end to wave .v. of -v- of (v) of iii. We suspect that wave iii will end this week, with a bang!.


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The rally in the S&P quickly died out as the day session opened, and we dropped for most of the day. It appears that wave .iii. of -i- of (iii) ended at 2022.58 and that the current rally from that low is an incomplete wave .iv. triangle. Within this triangle it looks like waves *a*, *b*, and *c* are complete. Upon completion of this triangle the S&P will head lower in wave .v. Since wave .iii. was relatively short compared to wave .i.(ie: less than 1.618 times as long), we would expect that wave .v. will be a very large drop. Upon completion of wave .iv. we will provide some projections for the end of wave .v.

We remain short with stops as previously indicated.



The USDXtraded sideways, during today's day session. We still have no indication that last week's high of 92.53 is the end of wave ii of C. Until that happens we will just wait on the sidelines.




As we suggested in today's Morning Post, NG broke to new lows below 2.81, hitting a low of 2.783, in today's day session, as this post is being written. We still not sure what is happening within wave -v- of (c ) of ii as we thought we had a five wave drop when we hit the 2.81 low. We will look for additional opportunities in the market moving forward. It looks like the trading over the last week, on the intraday charts was a triangle, which suggests to us that the selling is about over. It is likely that NG and crude will  likely bottom together. Like crude the bottom in NG will be obvious as it will be marked by a high volume big price rally up day.



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We have made significant changes to the current rally, and we have cleaned up some of the detailed EWave labelling from many weeks ago.


St comments: Captain Ewave is not perfect, but he is here to stay!


In this Morning's Post, we provided long term charts of both the HUI and XAU, and indicated that in both charts, a multi-year down trend line was expected to be broken. Well, as expected the HUI and XAU did not disappoint us, as we did break through both those down trend line. The final test will be whether we close above those down trend lines on a weekly basis to remove any doubt that our hug wave C rally is now underway.

In the shorter term, we have relabeled the GDX chart, and also shown some projections for the end of wave .iii. at 21.97.


We have modified the count below to match the graphical count shown on our 60 min GDX chart:

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;


-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76


.i. = 18.71;


*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:


*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:


^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ = 20.69:

^iv^ = 19.82:

^v^ = 20.67, to complete all of wave *iii*;


^a^ = 19.82;

^b^ = 20.52;

^c^ =  19.61, to complete all of wave *iv*.

*v* is now and we have a projection for the end of wave *v* at 21.97, as shown on the chart.

Keep in mind that in a bull market these waves can subdivide further.   We remain long all GDX positions.