jan 17 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments: The Captain’s mother became gravely ill yesterday.  Posting may be interrupted at times over the next week as the Captain deals with this tragedy… thanks… Team Ewave.

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ewdec419gold.png  

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a high of 1548.20. In the overnight session we have moved higher to have reached a high of 1560.90.            

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and within wave *v* all of wave $i$ ended at the spike high of 1613.30. If that is the case we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave $iv$ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

The current low of 1536.70 is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1529.80, so we probably should expect a little more weakness before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

Silver and the GDX have all dropped within their retracement levels for their respective corrections, however, so there is an outside chance that wave $ii$ in gold could be complete at the 1536.70 low.

 

Gold, silver and the GDX counts now all line up.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 17.93. In the overnight session we have moved higher to have reached high of 18.18.    

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and have now completed wave $i$ of ^iii^ at the 18.89 high.

 

We are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.73;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.46.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ at the 17.69 low, and the start of another very sharp rally in wave $iii$ of ^iii^. We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we are sure that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 58.94.

 

Wave $c$ of *c* is complete at the 65.65 high and we are now falling in wave *d*. Wave *d* will be a corrective looking which will include at least one 3 wave pattern and should move down to our lower red trendline that marks the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle.

 

We are due for a rally in this market as we have dropped by about $8 in the last 2 weeks!!

 

 Based on the current position of this trendline wave *d* should reach the 52.00/53.00 level before it ends. Wave *d* cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We plan to take profits on all of our short positions at the 52.00/53.00 level.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is likely complete at the 34.51 high. If that is the case we should now be starting to fall sharply in wave (iii) very soon.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor risking to $36.00.                                

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.830{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. On the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we have shown a possible internal wave count for wave (iv) which includes a bullish triangle that likely ended at the 1.766{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, within our wave *b* bullish triangle. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave *c* which has minimum target of at least the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high to complete all of wave (iv).

 

For our current wave *b* triangle to remain valid we cannot drop below the 1.693{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. Otherwise this triangle is likely expanding and extending.  

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching another all-time new high at 3317.05. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 8 points!

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in an extending wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct.

 

The SP500 continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 97.26. We are still waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower.

 

Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 583.25. On the Intraday Chart the drop from 591.23 to the current low of 571.42 looks corrective, which is suggesting higher prices lie ahead, as this correction now looks to be complete!!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts. We should now be heading back to the wave -a- 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720gdx2.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan1720gdx1.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of 28.36.

 

It is starting to look like all of wave -ii- is complete at the 27.68 low and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Our initial projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-= 34.28!!!

 

The only issue with this count is whether gold has completed its correction at the 1536.70 low.   

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

These have been updated as of December 30th:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew