jan 18 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819gold.png Short Term Update:

 

Gold continued again to move sideways in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session we have moved down to 1283.20.

   

Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Within that first impulsive sequence, we have taken a very bullish approach with our count as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. We are now working on the assumption that only wave ?iii? ended at the 1300.40 high and that we are now correcting in wave ?iv?. If that is the case our retracement levels for wave ?iv? are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1279.20;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1266.10

 

On the Intraday Chart it now looks like wave ?iv? has become more complex than just a simple bullish triangle, as we should now expect gold to move back to at least the 1278.20 level, before all of wave ?iv? ends. Wave ?iv? does include a small bearish triangle within in its internal corrective pattern. Once wave ?iv? ends we expect another push higher in wave ?v? to complete all of !iii!. Our next projected target for the end of wave ?v? and !iii! is:

 

!iii! = 2.168!i! = 1358.40.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver continued to drift lower in yesterday’s day session and we are currently trading at the 15.46 level.

 

Like gold we have adopted our very bullish count that is suggesting that wave ^iii^ of .i. is still underway. Our next projected target for its completion is :

 

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 16.94.

 

After this current consolidation within wave ^iii^ ends our next challenge will be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level, which expect will be breached.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session. We are still waiting for the confirmation of the completion of wave *a* of (b) at the 53.31 high, although it is looking like we should see one more push after the current high of 53.31 to complete all of wave *a*.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (a) is now complete at the 42.21 low and that our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for all of wave (b) is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

In the short term we have now shown a possible 3 wave pattern within wave (b), and if this pattern is what crude is doing, then all of wave *a* of (b), could now be complete at the 53.31 high. Upon completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* setback that will then be followed by another rally in wave *c* to complete all of wave (b).

 

We are expecting that wave *b* should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *a* rally. Of course wave (b) could become much more complex than we are currently suggesting also. Since we are rallying in a wave (b), we should expect this rally to be choppy and full of an overlapping wave structure.

 

Suncor: Suncor has confirmed that all of wave (i) is complete at the 25.81 low and that we continue to rally in wave (ii). As a minimum the wave (ii) rally will have at least one 3 wave pattern, and is crude has now completed wave *a* of (b), then we should except that Suncor has completed its first leg higher within wave (ii), at the 31.34 high. We should expect that the wave (ii) rally retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop!                                    

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 2.775{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. 

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We have shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart our first suggested count for the internal wave structure of wave (ii). It looks like wave $iii$ of *a* ended at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. We should now be rallying in a small wave $iv$ corrective rally that has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.710;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.807.

 

We have already reached our 23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another drop with wave $v$ of *a*, that will complete all of wave *a*, as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat now.

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher again in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a high of 2645.06. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 12 points.

 

Big pic: We are continue to drop  in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

Within wave (iii), we are now subdividing with wave .i. ending at 2346.58 and we continue to move higher in an extend wave .ii. corrective rally, which should end soon. We have exceeded out 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level and may now be heading to our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2703.11.

 

We need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. now and the start of a very sharp drop in wave .iii. of (iii). We will provide our initial projection for its completion, once we believe that all of wave .ii. is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with an updated call as a stop.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX traded sideways to slightly higher in yesterday’s day session as we reached a high of 95.92. In the overnight session we moved sideways to currently be trading at the 95.69 level.  

 

We still believe that wave (iii) lower is now underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

Expect lower prices ahead, after this current corrective rally ends, which we expect to happen very soon.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 3.295.

 

We are looking at dropping NG and replacing this market with another in the next week or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1819jgdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX has again extremely quiet in yesterday’s trading session.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^c^ is complete at the 20.42 low and if that is the case then we should expect this market to now rally in wave ^d^ back towards our upper red trendline that marks the wave *iv* triangle boundaries, as graphically shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. A drop below the 20.42 low now would just mean that wave ^c^ is still developing…with our wave ^d^ rally coming next.

 

Only a break of the wave ^a^ low of 19.80 would eliminate this current wave *iv* triangle pattern.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!