jan 19 morning post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING POST!

 

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold continued to correct in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1197.00. Since making that overnight low ta 1197.00, gold has rallied to e high of 1205.00, at the time that this Post was being written. We still expect further upside within our current wave *i*, although we cannot now rule the possibility at all of wave *i* ended at the 1218.80 high and we are now starting a larger wave *ii* correction.  

 

Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1218.80 high, but we need to be on guard for end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends. As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  A run to resistance at the 1244.00 level seems a likely place for wave *i* to end.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i.:

*i* = 1218.80, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

 

When wave *i* ends we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* rally.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00.

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching 17.36. After that silver moved lower and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 16.85, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

In yesterday’s Morning Post we indicated that a run to the 17.29 high seemed likely and that might also represent the end of wave ^i^.

 

A break and close above the 17.29 high, would likely see silver rally sharply higher in an extending wave ^i^ rally.

 

Silver is still rallying in wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, but we need to be on guard for the possibility that all of wave ^i^ ended at the 17.36 high, and that wave ^ii^ has now begun.

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

^i^ = 17.36, if complete;

^ii^ drop is next after wave ^i^ ends. Wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 50.93. In the overnight session crude was higher reaching a high of 51.81, at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. Our wave $c$ diagonal triangle idea has now been eliminated so we are now thinking that wave $b$ could be taking on the form of a triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.  

 

We have updated our count below to consider this option for wave $b$. A rally now above the 55.24 high would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ is still underway as a bearish triangle formation;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^;

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80.

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was basically unchanged in yesterday’s trading session. In the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 3 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops.

 

Subscriber Question: Hi,

Thanks for posting your wave counts on gold-eagle.com where I found you.  I'm learning Elliott Wave, so please pardon this question.

You are expecting a diagonal 5th, with -iv- to come once -iii- ends. As -iv- needs to overlap -i- at 2120 and given the channeling, it suggests the diagonal 5th will be an expanding one. Would that be correct, as I read there is some difference in opinion among Elliotticians about whether an expanding diagonal (ending or leading) pattern actually exists?

Or is it possible that -i- is 1810/2186, -ii- to 2083, -iii- to 2282 (i.e. 2083/2282 is a zigzag rather than a :5) and the coming -iv- overlap at 2186? 

Best regards.

 

Answer: Yes it could be possible that wave (v) diagonal triangle could expand. We have said many times in these Postings…. triangles and diagonal triangles are difficult to analyse in real time as the like to expand as you suggest. Yes, I agree with your second possible count. In this count the S&P will be in this rising diagonal triangle for most of 2017.                        

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a high of 101.50, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The current rally in the USDX has put in question our current short term count.

 

We suspect that the USDX is now heading back to at least the 101.73 high.

 

The issue is that on the Intraday Chart we have a 3 wave pattern in place from 102.96 to 100.24. This could be indicating that wave *ii* is not complete at the 102.96 high and this wave has become a complex irregular correction.

 

This complex wave *ii* could match or wave *ii* correction in gold and our wave ^ii^ correction in silver. For our current analysis to remain valid we would need the USDX to stay below the 101.73 high.

 

Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96, if complete

*iii* drop is underway, if wave *ii* is complete at the 102.96 high.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

We have moved our stops back to the 103.80 level.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was higher in yesterday’s day session, reaching a high of 3.513. In the overnight session NG was lower reaching a low of 3.268, at the time that this Post was being written. We still expect higher prices this week.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

The wave -ii- correction in NG looks to be complete at the 3.099 low, so we should now be starting a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.099, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- is now underway.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=5.090.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 3.090.

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s day session. If wave *i* in gold is complete at the 1218.80 high then wave (i) in the GDX is complete at the 23.56 high and wave (ii) is about to begin. If wave (ii0 is underway then we expect that it will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!