Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919gold.png


Longer Term Update:


Gold was lower this past week, as we reached a low of 1280.60.


We continue to rally in a larger subdividing wave !iii! of $iii$. Within wave !iii!...


We believe that we only completed wave ?iii? of !iii! at the 1300.40 high and we now continue to correct in wave ?iv? of !iii!.


Once wave ?iv? ends, we expect gold to rally higher again in wave ?v? to complete all of wave !iii!, as shown on the “Daily Gold Chart”.


On the intraday chart we still appear to be working on an expanding ?iv? triangle pattern.


This triangle pattern will only be eliminated if we now trade below the 1278.10 low.


Even if this triangle pattern is eliminated the trading patterns on the intraday chart still suggest that the drop from the wave ?iii? high of 1300.40 is corrective, which supports higher prices ahead!


We are still expecting that USDX will move lower, which will help gold move higher.


Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:


.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20, but we have higher projections also.


Longer term, our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:





Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!




Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919si.png


Longer Term Update:


Silver was lower this past week as we reached a low of 15.35.


Like gold we have now taken a much more bullish stance, and now believe that wave ^iii^ is still underway and heading to our next projected target of 16.94.


The next big challenge will be to break and close above our red weekly downtrend line that connects 21.23 and 17.35, that is shown on our weekly chart.


On the intraday chart, the trading patterns since the 15.93 high was made are corrective, which supports higher prices ahead.


Our updated first projection for the end of wave iii is:


iii = 1.618i = 26.09.   


In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;


1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 Rally has now begun.


Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!


US 10 Year Bond Yield:


Longer Term Update:


The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week as we reached a high of 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.


All of wave (i) is complete at the 3.248{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and that we continue to fall in a multi-month wave (ii) correction. Our current internal wave structure wave (ii) is suggesting that we are falling in a 3-wave pattern of which we have now completed all of wave $iii$ of *a* at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are continuing to rally in wave $iv$.


The current wave $iv$ rally is within our 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion and then the start of wave $iv$ lower to complete all of wave *a* of (ii).


Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.489{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.


In the lower term we are working on a larger wave iii rally that has an initial projection of 4.11{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, although it should take many months to get there.


The 10 Year Bond Yield reached a historic low of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} on July 06, 2017, and we have now started to rally higher. We expect over the next number of years, that US 10 Year Bond Yields will rally back to at least the 15.84{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level that was reached in September of 1981.


Active Positions: Flat!




Longer Term Update:


Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919oil.png


Crude was higher again this past week and we reached a high of 54.14!                                                                                         


We now show a double 3 wave corrective pattern from the all-time high of 147.27 to the 26.05 low and have labeled this drop as wave A.


We are now rallying in a complex wave B that will include a number of 3 wave patterns.


We have multiple options for wave B as we have explained here previously and have adopted Option 1 below, as our preferred:


Option 1:


(a) = 51.67;

(b) triangle = 45.58;

(c) =  76.90, if complete, to complete just wave a of our first abc pattern, within wave B;


In this option, since wave a is a 3-wave pattern then the wave b drop is going either be a flat or irregular type correction that will see crude fall back the vicinity of 26.05 or even below it before it ends. Wave b could also become a triangle.


Wave (a) ended at the 42.36 low, and we are now rallying in a corrective wave (b) rally a shown on the Weekly Crude Chart. If we assume that wave (b) will be a just a simple 3 wave pattern, then we are getting close to completing wave -a- of (b).


The 54.14 high might be the end of wave   -a-. Upon completion of wave -a- we expect a wave -b- drop that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally. This is shown graphically on our Daily Crude Chart.




Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919su.png


Suncor was higher this past week, reaching a high of 32.20.


Our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10. We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B. This count is suggesting that crude will likely he heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.


Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down. Wave (i) ended at the 25.81 low, and we are now rallying in wave (ii). Wave (ii) is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop, with those retracement levels being shown on the Suncor Weekly Chart.


Active Positions: Long crude with put at 57.00 as a stop!                                   




Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919sp.png


Longer Term Update:


The SP500 was again sharply higher this past week, reaching a high of 2675.47.   


Our count within wave (iii), is suggesting that only wave -i- ended at 2346.58 and that we are now rallying in wave -ii- are shown on the weekly SP500 chart.


We should be getting close to completing all of wave -ii-.


Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp drop in wave -iii- of (iii) as shown on the chart.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave (iii) are :


(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 1919.69.


Active Positions: Very Short, with put options as stops!




Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan1919usd.png


Longer Term Update:


The USDX was higher this past week an we reached 96.05.


We now appear to be falling in the early stages of wave (iii), as shown on the weekly USDX chart. We seem to still be missing the 97.72 high data.


We will provide our first internal wave count and projections for the end of wave (iii) when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.


Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75!





Longer Term Update:


NG was sharply higher this past week as we reached a high of 3.72, although we closed at 3.42 


It is looking like NG just completed another 3 wave rally from 1.61 to the current high of 4.93, and that we are now starting to work on another 3 wave drop that will end at least at the 1.61 low to complete all of wave B. We have shown our initial thoughts on this count in our Monthly NG Chart.


We are considering substituting something in real estate for the natgas ewave counts.


Active Positions: Flat!





Longer Term Update:


The GDX was lower this past week and we reached 20.24.


Looking at the weekly GDX chart you can see that we are working on a multi-year wave C rally which is consistent with all of the other counts that we have in the HUI, XAU and most gold stocks.


All of the gold indices and gold stock should have now completed their respective wave 2 corrections.


Our current trading strategy is to buy and hold gold stocks and associated indices to capture all of the upcoming wave 3 rally. Wave 3 should last a year or two and be very sharply higher in price. In the case of the GDX this target is 48.60.


Our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts show a very large wave *iv* bullish triangle, which is now expanding and extending.


We probably have another week or so of development for this triangle formation before it ends and we see our expected very large thrust higher in wave *v*.


That should reach our wave -iii- target of at least 23.49.                   


A major low in all gold stocks and related indices has occurred, and Subscribers are encouraged to position themselves accordingly.


Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!