CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING UPDATE
We do not have a good handle on what is doing at the moment, but a as minimum we are going to revisit our assumed low of 1170.80.
ST COMMENTS: DONE THIS MORNING.
We cannot rule the possibly that gold is going to head all the back to the 1130 lows and then head significantly lower.
Crude has taken out Wednesday's low of 52.45, in the overnight session. Our target of 50.03 is likely going to be reached before we can declared that wave iii is complete.We were stopped out of our long spec trade.
The S&P rallied in the overnight session to 2067.14. We are not sure whether wave .iii. ended at 2051.45 and therefore this rally would be all or part of wave .iv. or whether the S&P is subdividing further in a continuation of wave .iii.
For the time being we will assume that wave .iii. ended at 2051.45, and that the current rally is likely part of wave .iv. Therefore our updated count form the 2093.55 high is as follows:
.i. = 2079.53;
.ii. = 2085.58;
.iii. = 2051.45;
.iv. rally is now.
We are short 2 positions risking 10 ticks above the all-time high, of 2093.55.
See today's updated GDX 60 Min Chart, that we updated this morning.
It looks like wave *ii* of .iii. did not end on 12/31/14, but probably today. Our current thinking for the HUI/GDX from our wave ii low of 17.08 is as follows:
-i- = 18.91;
-ii- = 17.16;
.i. = 18.48;
.ii. = 18.76
*i* = 18.71;
^a^ = 18.05:
^c^ will be today's with wave ^c^ falling to at least the wave ^a^ low of 18.05, to complete all of wave *ii*.
This market still remains bullish as the rallies are impulsive and the setbacks are corrective looking in terms of wave structure. We are concerned however, with the inability of gold to rally.
The USDX continues higher with no top in sight, as on the intraday charts all rallies are impulsive looking and all setbacks are corrective.
NG hit a new low of 2.83 in early in the overnight session has since rebounded. We were stopped out of long positions, but have re-entered with 4 long positions, risking to 2.82, as the rally from 2.84 to 2.93. Our current thinking has not changed this the low at 2.83 should be the bottom of wave ii of C.
NG has also broken the down tend line connecting waves .ii. and .iv. of -v-, which is a bullish sign.