jan 2 morning post!

Gold: 

Note: The Captain will be in Minneapolis, Minnesota from January 07th to the 9th. No posts during this time, although the Captain will be watching the markets and provide any Intraday Posts for breaking markets, as required!

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219gold.png

Short Term Update:

 

In the overnight session as we have moved higher to cross the 1290.00 level and reached high of 1290.80!!

 

   

Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Within that first impulsive sequence we believe that we are still working on a subdividing wave $iii$. Within wave $iii$, we believe we are still rallying in an incomplete wave !iii!, which has an initial target of:

 

!iii!=1.618!i!=1296.40.

 

Within wave !iii!, we should now be moving higher in incomplete wave ?v? that has an initial target of 1296.40. There is an outside chance that wave ?iii? could be extending and in that case we should be heading to our second projection for wave ?iii? of 1300.30.

 

Our second projection for an extended wave ?iii? is:

 

?iii? = 2.618?i? = 1300.30.

 

We are getting close to our initial target of 1296.40, and if our current analysis is correct then wave !iii! will be ending soon. After wave !iii! ends we should expect a wave !iv! correction that retraces between 23.6 to 28.3{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave !iii! rally.

 

We appear to have broken above resistance at the 1281.00 level, which should give us a shot at the 1300.00 level. The USDX looks to be breaking down now in the initial phases of its wave (iii) drop, which should send gold and silver sharply higher also.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219si.png

Short Term Update:

 

 Silver has rallied to reach a high of 15.58, as we are currently trading at the 15.48 level!

 

We continued to work on the assumption that all of wave ii ended at the 13.86 low and that we are now starting to work higher in the initial stages of wave .iii. We should now be heading to our next resistance level at the 15.64 level.

 

We should still see higher prices in the days ahead.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 26.09.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude continued to trade sideways since rallying to the 46.99 level, over the Christmas holidays. That trend continued in the overnight session also as we are currently trading at the 44.77 level. We are expecting a drop back to at least the 44.38 low, before we start to move higher again.

 

All of wave a is complete at the 76.70 high and we are now falling in wave b that is heading back or even below the 26.05 low. If the current 3 wave pattern is an abc, then we are now falling in a wave x, which will not likely fall back to the 26.05 low. This count will be our alternate.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (a) is now complete at the 42.21 low and that our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for wave (b) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

It is too early to determine which type of corrective pattern wave (b) is going develop into, but as a minimum it will need to be at least one 3 wave pattern.

 

Suncor: We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave (i) is complete at the 25.81 low. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave (ii) rally that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop!                                  

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield were lower in Monday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 2.650{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.       

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We have shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart our first suggested count for the internal wave structure of wave (ii). It looks like wave $iii$ of *a* could now be complete at the 2.650{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low. If wave *iii* is now complete, then we should expect a small corrective rally in wave *iv* to be the next big event in this market. We note that other options are also still possible for the internal makeup of wave (ii).

 

Trading Recommendation: Short now risking to 3.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 3.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in Monday’s trading session, but in the overnight session the SP500 Futures are sharply lower by 41 points.

 

We are continue to drop in sharply in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

Within wave (iii), all of wave .iii. is complete at the 2348.58 low and we are now rallying in wave .iv. as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. From the wave .iii. low of 2348.58 we now have a clear impulsive rally to the current high of 2520.27.

 

Within wave .iv., it now looks like we now have a five wave impulsive sequence within wave *a* to the current high of 2520.27. Wave *a* is likely complete at the 2520.27 high and in that case we have started to fall in wave *b*. Wave *b* is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *a* rally, as shown on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. After wave *b* ends we should see one more rally in wave *c*, back to the wave *a* high to complete all of wave .iv..

 

Our last retracement level for all of wave .iv. as:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}= 2516.01.

 

Since our wave .iv. retracement has reached the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level, we need to be our guard for another very bearish alternate count that is suggesting that wave .iii. is now subdividing. In this case wave *i* of .iii. ended at the 2346.58 low and we are now rallying in our wave *ii* correction. Also wave *ii* should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* drop. After wave *ii* ends we should expect a huge drop in the SP500 in wave *iii*.

 

There is an outside chance that all of wave .iv. is complete at the 2520.27 high and if that is the case then we are now heading sharply lower again in wave .v.

 

This market has several options now that will all end badly for the bulls.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short! With an updated call as a stop!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower Monday’s day session and that trend continued early in the overnight session as we did reach a low of 95.38. The USDX had since recovered to be currently trading at the 96.25 level.

 

Wave (iii) lower appears to now be underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

This breakdown in the USDX will send gold and silver sharply higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 98.55.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 98.55!

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219ng.png

Short Term Update:

 

NG was sharply lower in Monday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 2.922.

 

The big drop in NG has eliminated our current short term count, and at the moment we do not have anything new to offer, although we could we working on a wave b bearish triangle. More details coming.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan219gdxd.png

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2gdx60.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in Monday’s trading session, as we reached a high of 21.13.. We see even higher prices ahead!

 

We are now rallying in a subdividing wave -iii-, and within that wave, we should be rallying sharply in wave ^iii^. We expect higher prices ahead as our next target will be to break and cleanly close above the wave ^i^ high of 21.47.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have updated all of the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!

 

Note: The Captain will be in Minneapolis, Minnesota from January 07th to the 9th. No posts during this time, although the Captain will be watching the markets and provide any Intraday Posts for breaking markets, as required.