JAN 2 MORNING POST!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220gold.png Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in Tuesday’s day session, and in the overnight session we have ripped higher!!

 

We are at 1527.90!!!             

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and we will provide some projections for its completion in the next couple of days. Wave *v* should consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence of which we are now rallying in wave $i$ of that sequence.

 

We have broken above the 1519.00 resistance level, and should be heading to the 1543.00 level, and the small correction we looked for hasn’t even happened yet. This is a strong market!

 

One projection for the end of wave *v* is the wave .iii. high which is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved lower in Tuesday’s day session, as we reached a low of 17.83. In the overnight session we moved higher to have reached a high of 18.06.   

                                                                                                          We should expect a small correction in silver pretty soon.               

 

We have started to rally in wave ^iii^. Wave ^iii^ should consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence of which a we are working on wave $i$ of ^iii^.

 

In the short term we should reach resistance at the 18.35 level and then after we breach that level a run to 18.81 should be expected!

 

 

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220oil.png  

Short Term Update:

 

Crude have had some volatile trading over the last day or so, and in Tuesday’s day session we were lower reaching a low of 60.62, but recovered most of those losses by the close. In the overnight session we have moved lower again reaching a low of 60.91.

 

On the Daily Crude Chart we have now reached the top trendline of our bearish triangle…. a reversal and the completion of all of our wave (b) triangle needs to be getting very close.

 

Our wave (b) of b bearish triangle needs to be complete or nearing completion at the 62.34 high.

 

For our current triangle formation to remain valid wave *e* cannot trade above the wave *c* high of 63.38, otherwise this triangle formation is likely expanding and extending.

 

Confirmation of the end of wave *e* and (b) will likely be announced with a big down day in crude, which may be happening right now.

 

Once wave *e* and all of wave (b) are now complete, crude should start heading back to at least the 42.21 low in wave (c).   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is still underway and it has become a clear 3 wave pattern with wave -a- of (ii) ending at 34.87, and wave -b- of (ii) at 27.56. We continue to rally in wave -c- of (ii) which has minimum target of the wave -a- high of 34.87, before all of wave (ii) ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with a 60.00 call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short with a 60 call as a stop!                                

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in Tuesday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 1.903{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. At the moment we are not sure which pattern wave (iv) is following, but a run back to the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high looks likely, as a minimum.  

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220spd.png

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in Tuesday’s trading session as we reached a high of 3231.72. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 19 points.

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct. We appear to be finishing our last subdivisions within wave $v$, so we should see a little more upside, before this wave ends. This rally is also getting very extended.

 

The SP500 has continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower in Tuesday’s day session as we reached a low of 96.02. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 96.43.

 

We are waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

The start of our wave (iii) drop in the USDX will likely see the rally in gold and silver start to accelerate higher again.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX was sharply higher in Tuesday’s trading session, and we reached a high of 577.78.  This market is hot!!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts. We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan220gdx.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher early in Tuesday’s trading session as we reached a high of 29.76, but we fell back at the close.

 

With gold blasting higher this morning, this could be a big day for GDX! 

 

We have started to rally in wave (v) as shown on the Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts.

 

A run to the 30.95 high appears likely!

 

Wave (v) is expected to consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence of which we are currently working on wave $i$.

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

These have been updated as of December 30th:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew