jan 2 morning post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING POST!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

During last week’s holiday shorten session gold was higher, reaching 1164.30, and then on Friday of last week we had a selloff. In the overnight session that sell-off continued as we reached a low of 1146.50, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The rally in gold last week suggested to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 high and that we have started our wave -iii- rally. On the Intraday Chart The drop from 1164.30 to the current low of 1146.50 looks like a completed 3 wave correction of the rally from 1124.50 to 1164.30. If this observation is correct then at minimum gold is heading back to at least the 1164.30 high.

 

Now that full trading is resembled we will give this market another day or so to confirm our current thinking.

 

Once we are sure that all of wave –ii- is complete at the 1124.50 low we will provide projections for the end of wave -iii-.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.50 low. If that is true then 2017 will see gold rally sharply in wave -iii-. We will keep our add long trade in place for another day or so, but we doubt it will get filled.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00, and plan to add more at 1120.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher with gold last week and also had the late week selloff that continued in the overnight session, Last week silver reached a high of 16.32 and low in the overnight session of 15.89, at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

Silver has now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- as show on the Daily Silver Chart. In order to confirm that the 15.68 low is the end of wave -ii- will want to see silver break and close after the down trend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29.

 

Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our projections for the end of wave -iii- when we are sure that wave -ii- is complete. It is not necessary for silver to make one more new low.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 14.50!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

In general crude was higher last week and in the overnight session that trend continued as we reached a high of 55.24, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is still underway in an irregular type corrective pattern. Upon completion of wave $b$ we still expect to see a drop in wave $c$ to complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

We are now working on the idea that all of wave ^i^ within a larger wave *iii* of .iii. ended at 54.51 and that we are now correcting in wave ^ii^. Retracement levels for then of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24, if complete;

$c$ drop is now back to at least the 49.95 low, but more likely to our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add more at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was generally weaker last week, but in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 16 points at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

The S&P may now be showing signs of the end of wave -iii-, but we still are ready to confirm that all of wave -iii- is compete at the 2277.53 high.

 

We will need to give this market another day before we confirm that wave -iv- lower has begun. Projection points do not always work out so we need to warn that we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iii- rally at the current high. Wave -iv- could then start at any time. When wave -iv- begins it could take a number of weeks to unfold.

 

We could still see one more rally above 2277.53 before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was generally lower last week, but in the overnight session we rallied sharply to a high of 103.51, at the time that this Post was being written.    

 

On the Intraday Chart it now looks like wave *iv* ended at 102.06, and we are now rallying in wave *v*. Our minimum target for wave *v* is 103.63.   

 

We believe that we are now getting very close to a major top in the USDX as our multi-year triple 3 wave ii will be ending.

 

Our current count for all of our third wave (c) is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v* rally is now underway, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii., once wave *iv* ends.

 

We are now short this market and will add at 103.75, and risk all to 105.00!

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

As you can see on the previously attached Weekly USDX Chart it looks like our multi-year wave ii correction has become a triple 3 wave pattern. We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and are looking for a major top in the next number of weeks or a month or so.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and will add to shorts at 103.75, risking all to 105.00!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was higher last week finally reaching 3.901, but in the overnight session NG was down sharply reaching 3.249, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

We believe that wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 3.78 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which as minimum will be a 3 wave drop.

 

Wave  *a* is now complete at the 3.243 low and we are now rallying in wave *b* of -ii-, which could be compete at the 3.901 high. Wave *b* is looking like an irregular type correction. We should now falling in wave *c*, which has a minimum target of the wave *a* low of 3.243.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c* drop after wave *b* ends to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

There is an outside chance that all of wave -ii- could be complete at the 3.243 low, in which case this market is getting ready to move sharply higher in wave -iii-.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher and with gold last week and on the Daily GDX Chart it looks like we broke above an important downtrend line also.

We are now thinking that all of wave 2 is complete at the 18.68 low and that a sharp wave 3 rally has now begun. We will need gold to confirm hat its wave -ii- is complete at the 11124.50 low also, for our wave 3 plan to be correct. We will provide projections for the end of wave 3 once we are sure that gold has completed wave -ii-.

 

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

 

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, if complete to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Wave 3 rally is now begun.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 may now be complete at the 18.68 low also.  

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!