jan 20 morning post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE MORNING POST!

 

Gold:  

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold continued to correct in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 1195.00. In the overnight session gold was higher 1208.80, at the time that this Post was being written. We still expect further UPSIDE within our current wave *i*, although we cannot now rule the possibility at all of wave *i* ended at the 1218.80 high and we are now starting a larger wave *ii* correction. 

 

Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1218.80 high, but we need to be on guard for end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends. As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  A run to resistance at the 1244.00 level seems a likely place for wave *i* to end.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i.:

*i* = 1218.80, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

 

When wave *i* ends we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* rally.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 16.75. In the overnight session silver was higher reaching a high of17.08, at the time that this Post was being written. A break and close above the 17.29 high, would likely see silver rally sharply higher in an extending wave ^i^ rally.

 

Silver is still rallying in wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, but we need to be on guard for the possibility that all of wave ^i^ ended at the 17.36 high, and that wave ^ii^ has now begun.

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart as it will take the same form as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

^i^ = 17.36, if complete;

^ii^ drop is next after wave ^i^ ends. Wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was generally quiet in yesterday’s day session, but in the overnight session we have rallied to a high of mostly due to contract rollover, at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. Our wave $c$ diagonal triangle idea has now been eliminated so we are now thinking that wave $b$ could be taking on the form of a triangle as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.  We have update our count below to consider this option for wave $b$. A rally now above the 55.24 high would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ is still underway as a bearish triangle formation;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^;

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was lower in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 5 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end of for all of wave -iii- which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii- and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX reached a high of 101.71 in yesterday’s day session before moving lower to reach 100.83. In the overnight session the USDX had rallied again to reach a high of 101.48, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

We rallied back to the 101.73 high in yesterday’s day session and then pulled back. It could now be possible that wave *iii* is starting to subdivide and we have added those subdivisions into our count below. However, we cannot rule the possibility that  wave *ii* is not complete at the 102.96 high and this wave has become a complex irregular correction. This complex wave *ii* could match or wave *ii* correction in gold and our wave ^ii^ correction in silver. A rally and close above the 101.73 high would indicate that wave *ii* is still underway.

 

Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70

^ii^ = 101.71, if complete;

^iii^ is next after wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

We have moved our stops back to the 103.80 level.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was marginally lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 3.284, and then it rallied to a high of 3.403. In the overnight session we have lower again reaching 3.263, at the time that this Post was being written. We are watching a potential change in our count that would indicate that all of wave –i- ended at the 3.90 high and not at the 3.78 as we have currently shown on our Daily Ng Chart. If this count is correct then NG is still correcting in wave -ii-, and that a drop back to the 3.10 low would appear likely. We will see on NG trades in the next day or so.

 

We have lowered our stop back to the 2.54.

 

The wave -ii- correction in NG looks to be complete at the 3.099 low, so we should now be starting a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.099, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.

-iii- is now underway.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=5.090.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was basically unchanged in yesterday’s trading session. If wave *i* in gold is complete at the 1218.80 high then wave (i) in the GDX is complete at the 23.56 high and wave (ii) is about to begin.

If wave (ii) is underway then we expect that it will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!