JAN 21 END OF WEEK POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE

 

 Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2118gold.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold traded sideways last week, but it will be interesting to see how it reacts to the US Government shutdown during this week’s trading, as it looks like this shutdown could be rather lengthy.

 

We are now rallying in an extended wave ^i^ of -iii-, with the possibility that we could continue higher to the 1363.00 resistance level or perhaps the 1377.00 resistance level before all of wave ^ii^ ends, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart.

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^ we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Gold should rally sharply in 2018.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70. 

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2118si.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Like gold, silver traded sideways this past week, but it is looking like this rally should continue next week.

 

We are now rallying in wave ^i^ of .iii, as shown on the Weekly Silver Chart, with a possible run to 18.29 level being likely, before all of wave ^i^ ends. Upon its completion we expect a wave ^ii^ correction that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Silver should move sharply higher in 2018.

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops.

 

Crude:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2118oil.png

 

Crude made a marginal new high this past week reaching 64.89. No change to our current thinking as we should now be working on the final subdivisions of wave $v$ of ^c^ of *b*. Upon completion of wave *b* we expect crude to move sharply lower for most of 2018, in wave *c*.

 

The most important takeaway from the current Weekly Crude chart is that: “The rally from the wave *a* low of 39.19 is NOT impulsive, so we do not think that crude is going to rally in a new bull market, until we revisit the 39.19 low one more time.”

 

In the very long term, we are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low.

 

If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Suncor:

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2118su.png

 

Suncor was higher with crude since our last Weekly Posy, as we are waiting for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the 38.39 high. Once wave .b. ends we expect one more drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with calls as the stops, and plan to go long in Suncor at 26.00.

 

S&P: 

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The S&P made another new all-time high on Friday of this week. It will now be interesting to see how it reacts to this possible protracted US Government shutdown.

 

There appears to no stopping the rallying in the S&P as we continue to rally impulsively in a very extended wave *v* of -v-. As we and likely many others have been saying for quite some time this market is very overvalued and overstretched by almost every technical indicator. The top will be marked by a very violent move to the downside.

 

Active Positions: Very Short, with calls at various levels, as stops.

 

USDX:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The USDX traded sideways this week, although we did reach our projected first target for the end of wave $iii$ at 89.96. We are not sure that all of wave $iii$ is complete at the current low, and with the US Government shutdown now underway we could see the USDX slump further in an extended wave $iii$. Our next projected target for the end of wave $iii$ is 87.30. If this occurs gold and silver will continue higher in their respective wave ^i^ rallies.

 

Upon completion of wave $iii$ we expect a wave $iv$ corrective rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ drop.  

 

We expect that the USDX should trade lower in 2018, supporting higher gold and silver prices.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

NG:  

 

Longer Term Update:

 

NG traded sideways this past week, although the daily ranges were very large.

 

Since our wave -a- high of 3.90 was made NG continues to work on a wave -b- corrective pattern that is still unfolding. We ultimately see it trading back to the 3.90 level to complete a long wave (iv) correction, but it appears that that journey will be length and complex. We continue to work on wave *iii* of -c-. 

 

We are also watching a possible bearish option also, that we have described in our Daily Morning Posts. More updates on this this coming week, to see if it remains valid. 

 

Since completing wave A at 15.74 in 2005, NG is dropping in a double 3 wave pattern as shown on the Monthly NG Chart. We are now in wave (v) of our second wave c, within that double 3 wave pattern. Our minimum target for the end of the second wave c is 1.61.

 

Upon completion of all of wave B, we expect a very sharp multi-year rally in wave C that should see NG exceed the 15.74 high, that was made in 2005. Heading back to 1.61.

 

Active Positions: Long risking to 2.74.

 

GDX: 

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan1218hui.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week. We now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -i- is complete at the 24.49 high, or will wave -i- extend.

 

If gold extends within its wave ^i^ we should expect the GDX to extend within its wave -i- rally also. A run to resistance at the 25.50/26.00 level appears likely before all of wave -i- ends. Upon its completion we should expect a wave -ii- correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. 

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low.

 

Longer term, our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops.