jan 21 evening post!



Note: This Post was written about 2 hours prior to the NY close, so some of the extreme data points may become dated.






Short Term Update:


Gold continued to drop in today’s day session, reaching a low of 1092.60, at the time that this Post was being written. This drop is likely part of our ongoing wave ^e^ of wave *b* triangle. Wave ^e^ cannot drop below the wave ^c^ low of 1071.10, for this triangle formation to remain valid.


That current triangle formation looks like:


Our current wave *b* triangle formation looks like:


^a^ = 1046.80;

^b^ = 1113.10;

^c^ = 1071.10;

^d^ = 1109.90, if complete

^e^ = 1092.60, if complete to complete all of our wave *b* triangle.


Retracements for the end of wave .b. are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Once we are sure wave *b* is complete we can also provide projections for the end of wave *c*.


Our current count for wave .b. is:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* triangle (details above) = 1096.50, if complete;

*c* thrust higher is next with projections shown above, for end of all of wave .b.


Longer Term Update:


Wave .b. has now become more complex and we expecting further gains to complete all of wave .b. Upon completion of wave .b., we expect a drop back to the 1045.40 low, in wave .c., to complete a major low in gold in either wave 4 or wave ii of 3.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


Crude was sharply higher in today’s day session, reaching 30.23, at the time that this Post was being written. We are waiting for evidence of an impulsive wave sequence to occur from the 27.87 low.


We do NOT see that impulsive sequence at the moment, as it might still be developing.  At the moment we only have a 3 wave rally in place from 27.57 to the current high.


We will give market another 24 hours to see if a lasting low in crude is in place now. We remain skeptical at the moment, and based on what we see happening on the Suncor chart (not attached).


Long Term Update:


If our current analysis is correct, a major low in wave b of B is at hand and crude is starting a new run back to the $150 area.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops. Going to go long Suncor at 13.05!




Short Term Update:


The S&P was sharply higher today, in what it a least a relief rally of the current drop. We will likely have a revised count for the S&P ready for this week’s End of Week Post.


Long Term Update:


Unknown at the moment.


Active Trading Positions: Flat!




Short Term Update:


The USDX broke above the 99.73 high and appeared to be thrusting higher in wave .v.. We reached a high today of 99.89. In our first Intraday Post we raised our stop to the end of our wave .iv. triangle which is 98.68.


We became a little concerned that the USDX could not break and close above the 99.73 high, and has now dropped back into the trend lines that were our wave .iv. triangle.


This might indicate that our wave .iv. triangle is extending again, where only wave *b* might only complete at the 99.89 high. A drop back and close within  the original triangle zone, would likely suggest that wave .iv. is extending.


Our count for all of the .iv. triangle is:


*a* = 97.72;

*b* = 99.73;

*c* = 98.14;

*d*= 99.40;

*e* = 98.68, to complete all of wave .iv. triangle.


We should now started our wave .v thrust rally to at least reach the 100.71 high.


The bearish case has likely been eliminated, but… we are watching.


Long Term Trading Update:


We are now working on a wave .iv. triangle formation. Once this formation is complete, which might have happened at the 98.68 low, we should expect a final thrust in wave .v., to reach at least the 100.71 high.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. = 98.68, if complete (detailed count above).

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


The other much more bearish count is shown on the attached Weekly USDX(Alternate) Chart. In this our second (a), (b), (c) pattern from the wave i low of 71.33, ended at 100.72 and we are now falling in another 3 wave pattern. Within this 3 wave pattern we are working on wave -c-, with projections of 88.35 and 80.79.


All of our alternate counts will become valid if we drop below the 96.64 high.


Active Trading Positions: Per our 2nd intraday alert, we are short 5 positions now, risking to 99.90!




Short Term Update:


NG continues to be choppy, with lots of large price moves. In today’s day session, NG had a high of 2.189, which is still below our retracement levels, as follows:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.271;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.324


Upon completion of wave .b. we expect one more drop in wave .c. to at least the wave .a. low of 2.045 to complete all of wave -b-.


Retracement levels for the end of wave -b- are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.089;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.993


We know that because we are in wave .b., we should expect lots of overlapping waves on the Intraday Chart. It is possible that this correction, in wave .b. might include a currently developing triangle formation.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- = 2.494;


.a. = 2.045, if complete;

.b. rally is underway;

.c. drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2.045, to complete all of wave -b-;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Long 5 at 2.05, risking to 1.69!


HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:


Short Term Update:


The GDX was quiet today, and we are still above our new low of 12.40. We are still expecting lower prices after wave .b. in gold ends. No change to our current comments are Kinross, ABX and CRJ.


Long Term Update:


We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave B and are now looking for evidence of a bottom.


The major breakouts in ABX and Kinross have failed which could suggest much lower prices ahead. Kinross is likely now heading to the 1.07 low and ABX back to 5.89. CRJ is likely completing wave ^iv^ and should be heading higher in wave ^v^, or wave ^iv^ could become a triangle.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!