jan 21 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments: Due to the US Holiday yesterday this Post only updates some charts and it is…. Edited and sent on plane!

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2120gold-1.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved up to 1568.60, but have since fallen back to be trading at the 1554.00 level.            

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and within wave *v* all of wave $i$ ended at the spike high of 1613.30, and we are now falling in wave $ii$.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave $ii$ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

The current low of 1536.70 is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1529.80, so we probably should expect a little more weakness before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

Silver and the GDX have all dropped within their retracement levels for their respective corrections, however, so there is a chance that wave $ii$ in gold could be complete at 1536.70.

 

Once wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in higher in wave $iii$.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2120si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in yesterday’s day session. In the overnight session we have moved sharply lower to 17.78.     

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and have now completed wave $i$ of ^iii^ at the 18.89 high. We are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.73;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.46.

 

The good news: We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ at the 17.69 low, and the start of another very sharp rally in wave $iii$ of ^iii^!

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we are sure that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop!

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2120oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 57.72.

 

We are now falling in wave *d* of our wave (b) bearish triangle. Wave *d* will be corrective looking which will include at least one 3 wave pattern and should move down to our lower red trendline that marks the boundaries of our bearish wave (b) triangle.

 

We are due for a rally in this market as we have dropped by about $8 in the last 2 weeks. Based on the current position of this trendline wave *d* should reach the 52.00/53.00 level before it ends. Wave *d* cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

We plan to take profits on all of our short positions at the 52.00/53.00 level.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is likely complete at the 34.56 high. If that is the case we should now be starting to fall sharply in wave (iii) very soon. A break and close below the 33.44 level should see the drop in this market start to accelerate lower.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with calls as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short crude with a call as a stop. Short Suncor risking to $36.00.                                

  

 

 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2120cdnx.png  

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 587.84.

 

Good News: On the Intraday Chart the drop from 591.23 to the current low of 571.42 looks corrective, which is suggesting higher prices lie, as this correction now looks to be complete!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts. We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2120gdxd.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was marginally lower in Friday’s trading session as we reached a low of 28.30.

 

It is starting to look like all of wave -ii- is complete at the 27.68 low and that we shave started to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-. Our initial projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-= 34.28.

 

The only issue with this count is whether gold has completed its correction at the 1536.70 low!!  

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew