jan 22 end of week post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE END OF WEEK POST! 

 

Gold:

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was generally higher this week, although we did spend most of the week in a corrective pattern.

 

In Friday’s day session, gold was higher reaching 1214.70.

 

We still expect further upside within our current wave *i*, although we cannot now rule the possibility that all of wave *i* ended at the 1218.80 high, and we are now starting a larger wave *ii* correction. 

 

Currently on the Intraday Chart, the rallies in gold look impulsive, and the setbacks corrective, which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far, the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1218.80 high, but we need to be on guard for the end of wave *i* soon, unless it extends.

 

As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart, we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like, as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  A run to resistance at the 1244.00 level seems a likely place for wave *i* to end.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

.i.:

*i* = 1218.80, if complete;

*ii* correction is next, after wave *i* ends.

 

When wave *i* ends, we should expect wave *ii* to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *i* rally.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low, and we are now rallying in the early stages of wave -iii-. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart, showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

 Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher this week.

 

In Friday’s day session, silver was higher reaching 17.18.

 

A break and close above the 17.29 high, would likely see silver rally sharply higher in an extending wave ^i^ rally.

 

Silver is still rallying in wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, but we need to be on guard for the possibility that all of wave ^i^ ended at the 17.36 high.

 

Wave ^ii^ has now begun:

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

Like gold, wave -iii- in silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart, as it will take the same form, as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

^i^ = 17.36, if complete;

^ii^ drop is next after wave ^i^ ends. Wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980, and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993.

 

We are now working on wave V, and within wave V, we have the following count:

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note: Wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was higher this past week.

 

On Friday, crude was higher reaching 53.67.  

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart, we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.

 

We have now completed the minimum requirements for our wave $b$ bearish triangle, at the 53.67 high. Nothing says that this bearish triangle cannot expand and extend in the next couple of days, but it does not need to.

 

If our bearish wave $b$ triangle is complete at the 53.67 high, then we should now expect crude to fall in wave $c$, to complete all of wave ^ii^. A rally now above the 55.24 high, would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our updated count for all of wave .iii. is now:

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 53.67, if complete;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^, with a minimum target of 49.95;

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83.

 

Suncor

 

Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case, then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated our Weekly Crude Chart.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was generally flat this week, and in Friday’s session, the S&P was almost unchanged. Now that trump is in charge, this market should start to decide how it wants to move in the days ahead.

 

The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end for all of wave -iii-, which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for the end of the -iii-, and the start of significant drop in wave -iv-.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this week, and on Friday, we reached a low of 100.68.

 

If our current analysis is correct, we should see the USDX fall sharply next week in wave ^iii^ of *iii*.

 

Our other option, is the possibility that wave *ii* is not complete at the 102.96 high, and this wave has become a complex irregular correction. This complex wave *ii* could match our wave *ii* correction in gold, and our wave ^ii^ correction in silver.

 

A rally and close above the 101.73 high would indicate that wave *ii* is still underway, although on Friday, we pulled back from that level, which is a very good sign for the bears.

 

Our current count for wave (c), and the start of wave iii is:

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c), and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 101.71, if complete;

^iii^ is next after wave ^ii^ ends.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern, and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80!

 

NG:

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was lower this week, and on Friday, we reached the low for the week at 3.196.

 

In yesterday’s Morning Post, we said this: “We are watching a potential change in our count that would indicate that all of wave -i- ended at the 3.90 high and not at the 3.78 as we have currently shown on our Daily NG Chart. If this count is correct then NG is still correcting in wave -ii-, and that a drop back to the 3.10 low would appear likely.”

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have now changed our count to reflect the above statement. Wave -i- ends at 3.90, and we are now still correcting in wave -ii-.

 

Our updated count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.901;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.099;

*b* = 3.513;

*c* is still underway with a minimum target of 3.099, to complete all of wave -ii-;

-iii- to start, after wave -ii- ends.

 

We will update our first wave -iii- projection after wave –ii- ends.

 

We will add to our long NG positions at 3.07.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct, then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54, and will add at 3.07!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher this week. In Friday’s day session, the GDX was higher.

 

If wave *i* in gold is complete at the 1218.80 high, then wave (i) in the GDX is complete at the 23.56 high, and wave (ii) is about to begin. If wave (ii) is underway, then we expect that it will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. We will start labelling the internal wave structure of wave 3 after our first impulsive sequence ends.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our first and second projection for the end of wave 3 is:

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98.

 

As with gold and silver, this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79, and that wave 2 ended at the 18.68 low.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!