JAN 22 MORNING POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE DAILY CHARTS UPDATE

 

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan22gold1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

This market is digesting the current US Government shutdown, and just how long it will last.

 

The current pattern on the Intraday Chart is corrective looking. 

 

For the time being we are assuming that wave ^i^ is still underway, but we note that have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed impulsive sequence, which could be all of wave ^i^, at the current high of 1345.00. If wave ^i^ continues higher a possible run to 1362.40 or even the 1378.00 highs are still possible, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.   

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^, we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection of the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=1495.20.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders that have taken profits can now wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends to re-enter long. We plan to stay long and add at the end of wave ^ii^.   

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops, and will add at the end of wave ^ii^!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

We are assuming that wave ^i^ is also extending in silver, but we have now satisfied to minimum requirements for a completed impulsive sequence that started at 15.64 low to the current high of 17.45. Wave ^i^ could still extent to the 18.29 level, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, before it ends.   

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^ we expect to see a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. =  22.03.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders who took profits can wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends before entering long again. We plan to hold and add at the end of wave ^ii^.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

 https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved lower in Friday’s day session and again in the overnight session, as we might be getting our first signs that all of wave $v$ and *b* are complete at the 64.89 high.

 

We have reached our upper red trendline as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, so if our current analysis is correct, we suspect all of wave $v$ and ^c^ and *b* is nearing completion. If crude has now topped out, we should expect a big down move day this week.

 

The rally from the wave *a* of .ii. low of 39.19 is not impulsive looking, so we are still expecting that we are correcting in a complex wave .ii. pattern. If this observation is correct then crude will be heading back to the 39.19 low again, once this current corrective pattern ends.

 

Suncor: We moved higher within a complex wave .b. rally and have reached a high of 38.39. We continue to watch for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the current high, and that wave .c. lower is now underway. If wave *b* in crude is complete at the 64.77 high then wave .b. is Suncor is complete at the 38.39 high and we should now be starting wave .c. lower.

 

Trading Recommendation: Aggressive traders should be short crude now with a 65.00 call as stop.  

 

Active Positions: We are now short, and have added to our short positions with calls as a stops. We will go long Suncor at 26.00!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218sp.png
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P made another all-time new high in Friday’s day session reaching 2810.33. So far this market is ignoring the current US Government shutdown, as they believe it will be over in a couple of days. Traders might be surprised as that may not turn out to be the case.

 

This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher. If our current analysis is correct, we should expect to see a very large drop in the S&P… 100 plus points in the near future.      

 

This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short and use calls as stops.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218usd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX traded sideways in Friday’s day session and again in the overnight session as traders await the outcome of the US Government shutdown discussions. We continue to trade near the current lows.

 

We have reached our first projected target for the end of wave $iii$, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of our expected wave $iv$ rally, as shown on the daily USDX Chart. If wave $iii$ is complete at the 89.96 low then we should expect wave $iv$ to rally between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ drop.

 

Wave $iii$ could also continue lower to our second projected endpoint for wave $iii$ which is 87.30. We will provide our retracement levels for wave $iv$ when we are sure that all of wave $iii$ is complete.

 

We suspect that if wave $iii$ is complete in the USDX at the 89.96 low, then wave ^i^ in gold and silver may also be complete at their current respective highs. In this case our wave ^ii^ corrections in gold and silver will likely match the wave $iv$ corrective rally in the USDX.

 

Our first projections for the end of wave $iii$ are:

 

$iii$ = 1.618$i$ = 89.94;

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 87.30.

 

Active Positions: Flat

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG traded higher in Friday’s day session and again in the overnight session. We should be working on wave *iii* of -c- of (b), as shown on the Daily NG Chart.  Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 3.61.

 

We are now watching a rather bearish option that is suggesting that NG is going to rally to at least the 3.43 high, and then turn lower in a continuation of wave -b-. This is suggesting that NG will head back to the 2.57 level after at least reaching the 3.43 level. Since we are expecting that Crude is going to head sharply lower, it seems that NG will likely do the same, so we have decided to take profits on our long positions at 3.47, and may consider shorting around that level also. This option may become our preferred count very soon.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long, with a stop at 2.74, but taking profits at 3.47.

 

Active Positions: Long now, with a stop at 2.74, and taking profits at 3.47.

 

GDX:  

 

GDX Daily Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2218gdx1.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

We may have completed wave -i- at the 24.49 high. We need to be on guard for the start of wave -ii-, as shown on the Daily GDX Chart. Wave -i- still does have the potential to rally to the 25.50/26.00 level.  

 

When wave -i- does end we should expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the end entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave -i- is complete. 

 

Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 32.81.

 

We expect the wave iii will consist of a clear 5 wave impulsive pattern, of which we are now working on wave (i) of that pattern.   

 

Based on that we should expect the following from our current gold stocks/indices:

 

Kinross: Uncertain here. Nested bullish waves might be in play here. 

Barrick: Major low at 13.28, and we should now be heading sharply higher. 

Newmont: Higher with nested bullish waves in play here. 

SSR: Wave 2 still looks to be underway. Wave 1 ended at 19.53, back in July, 2016.  

HUI: Higher now. See Monthly Chart  

XAU: Higher now. See Monthly Chart.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!