jan 23 end of day update



Gold did drop off during today’s day session as both st and I predicted, and based on that drop, my liking for the triangle formation has increased. Our updated count for the triangle formation is:

*a* = 1279.70;

*b* = 1306.60.;

*c* = 1284.50;

*d* rally is now and cannot rally above the wave *b* high of 1306.60;

*e* drop to come, to complete all of wave ^iv^.

We are still watching the flat type correction, but believe that option is now unlikely to be the correct one.

Unless this wave ^iv^ become more complex we are expecting this triangle to end early next week and gold to be much higher by this time next week.

No change to current 7 long positions, risking to 1225.00.



Although we believe that we are still in a wave (b) correction, we are not sure what that correction looks like. There are so many options we are not sure where to start, so we will hold our options until Monday morning after we take a closer look this weekend.

We are long 4 positions, risking to 44.20.




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ST Comments: Hi ho, hi ho, it’s over Niagara Falls, all the Dow price chasers, are about to go????

We are ahead of schedule and have attached our updated 10 Min S&P Chart that shows the detailed EWave count within our -a-, -b-, -c- correction, that started at the wave (i0 low of 1992.44. Let us take a bit of time talking about the details around wave (ii), as it is clear that we have a five wave impulsive drop from the wave b high of 2093.55 to 1992.44.

Let’s look at wave -a-. Wave -a- consists of a double .a., .b., .c. pattern. This analysis is the same as we had in our previous count except that we have adjusted the level of the corrective waves from -a-, -b-, -c- to .a., b., .c. Because wave -a- does not consist on an impulsive five wave sequence, wave b-must either be a flat or an irregular type correction. In this case it is a flat. In the case wave -b- consist of three .a., .b., .c. patterns, that end at 1988.12. Now for wave -c-. With all of the overlapping waves, wave -c- can only be a diagonal triangle that will consist of five waves. Because this is diagonal triangle each leg must consist of at least one ^a^, ^b^, ^c^ pattern. In this case wave .iii., consisted of two .a., .b., .c. patterns.

So within wave -c-, it is likely that we have completed all of wave .iv. at today’s low of 2050.54 and are now looking for one more ^a^, ^b^, ^c^ pattern rally  in wave .v. to complete all of wave -c- and (ii). Our minimum target for the end of wave .v. is the wave .iii. high of 2062.14.

We shorted the S&P at the opening and will add 2 more short positions at 2063.00, risking all to the 2094.

We are short 4 S&P at the market, risking to 2094.



We might be seeing the first signs of a top in the USDX, as the drop from 95.48 to 94.48, looks impulsive. It needs more study by the Captain.




NG rallied in today’s day session and the 2.80 area continues to hold. We will need to review our longer term chart on this market, and will advise on our findings over the weekend.



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The HUI/GDX was lower today as we expected. We had a couple of intraday posts relative to this market, pointing out some projection points for the end of wave -iv-.

It appears that wave -iv- is correcting in an .a., .b., .c. pattern. We are now falling in wave .c. and as the chart shows we are now within our 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone. We have exceeded our .c. =.a. target of 21.83 but are above our .c.=1.618.a. target of 21.14. We are not sure whether wave .c. is complete at today’s low of 21.62.

Since wave ^iv^ in gold appears to be a triangle we will need to be on guard for the possibility that wave -iv- in the GDX will become more complex than just a simple .a., .b., .c. pattern.


We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at $19.87.