jan 23 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319gold.png

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was a bit higher in yesterdays’ day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1285.90!

   

Within wave .iii. we continue to work on our first impulsive sequence, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart. We are now working on the assumption that only wave ?iii? ended at the 1300.40 high and it could now be possible that all of our wave ?iv? correction is now complete at the 1276.00 low. Our retracement levels for wave ?iv? are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1279.20;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1266.10

 

Once wave ?iv? ends we expect a sharp rally higher in wave ?v? of !iii!.

 

Our next projected target for the end of wave ?v? and !iii! is:

 

!iii! = 2.168!i! = 1358.40.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was also higher in yesterday’s day session and like gold that trend continued in the overnight session. We have reached 15.44.

 

Like gold we have adopted our very bullish count that is suggesting that wave ^iii^ of .i. is still underway. Our next projected target for its completion is :

 

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 16.94.

 

After this current consolidation within wave ^iii^ ends, which looks likely at the 15.20 low, our next challenge will be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level, which expect will be breached.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude reached a high of 54.51 in yesterday’s day session before then turning lower. That trend lower continued early in the overnight session as we reached a low of 52.63, although we have since recovered some of those losses to currently be trading at the 53.46 level.

 

We are now waiting for the confirmation of the completion of wave *a* of (b) at the 54.51 high, and we did have a key daily reversal down on the Daily Crude Chart.

 

Our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for all of wave (b) is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

In the short term we have now shown a possible 3 wave pattern within wave (b), and if this pattern is what crude is doing, then all of wave *a* of (b), could now be complete at the 54.51high. Upon completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* setback that will then be followed by another rally in wave *c* to complete all of wave (b). We are expecting that wave *b* should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *a* rally.

 

Of course wave (b) could become much more complex than we are currently suggesting also. Since we are rallying in a wave (b), we should expect this rally to be choppy and full of an overlapping wave structure.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave (ii). As a minimum the wave (ii) rally will have at least one 3 wave pattern, and if crude has now completed wave *a* of (b), then we should except that Suncor has completed its first leg higher within wave (ii), at the 32.20 high. We should expect that the wave (ii) rally retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.                                    

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached   of 2.727{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we rallied to reach a high of 2.775{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave $iv$ is complete at the 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We should now be rallying in a small wave $iv$ corrective rally, which could be complete at the 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. Our retracement levels for all of wave $iv$ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.710;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.807.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we really need to be guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another drop with wave $v$ of *a*, that will complete all of wave *a*, as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat now.

 

Active Positions: Flat now.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a low of 2617.27. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 13 points.

 

We are continue to drop in sharply in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

Within wave (iii), we are now subdividing with wave .i. ending at 2346.58 and we continue to move higher in an extended wave .ii. corrective rally, which should end soon. We have exceeded out 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level and may now be heading to our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2703.11.

 

We need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. now and the start of a very sharp drop in wave .iii. of (iii). We will provide our initial projection for its completion, once we believe that all of wave .ii. is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with an updated call as a stop.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was traded sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 95.93 level.  

 

We still believe that wave (iii) lower is now underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

Within wave (iii), we are now working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we likely completed all of wave $i$ at the 94.64 low. We are now rallying in wave $ii$ which is about to enter our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 96.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 96.54

 

Upon completion of wave $ii$, we expect sharp drop in wave $iii$ to happen very soon.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319ng.png

Short Term Update:

 

NG was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 3.030. In the overnight session we rallied to reach a high of 3.165.

 

Our current count needs to be updated. More details coming.

 

We are looking at dropping NG and replacing this market with another in the next week or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2319gdx.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX reached a marginal new low of 20.22 before moving higher in yesterday’s trading session.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^c^ is complete at the 20.22 low and if that is the case then we should expect this market to now rally in wave ^d^ back towards our upper red trendline that marks the wave *iv* triangle boundaries, as graphically shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

A drop below the 20.42 low now would just mean that wave ^c^ is still developing…with our wave ^d^ rally coming next!

 

Only a break of the wave ^a^ low of 19.80 would eliminate this current wave *iv* triangle pattern.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.