jan 24 weekend special usd update!

Special US Dollar Weekend Update     




Please click here now for the wave ii Ewave analysis:



For the last several weeks, the USDX had been rallying almost vertically.

A month or so ago we posted our long term and short term charts on the USDX. The long term chart started at the 164.72 high made back in 1985. In general, we believe that from that high we have been dropping in multi-year ABC pattern. Wave A ended at 80.78, in 1991 and wave B ended at 121.21 in 2001. Wave B retraced about 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the wave A drop. Within wave C, we completed wave i at 71.46 in 2008 and have been rallying in a corrective fashion in wave ii, since that time.

We have spent some time on updating our detailed wave ii analysis and nothing has really changed within that original analysis except for the second wave (c). As the attached chart indicates, wave ii consists of two (a), (b), (c ) patterns. The first (a), (b), (c) pattern ran from 71.46 to 88.71. This was then followed by a wave (x) that consisted of two -a-, -b-, -c- patterns and ended at 72.70. The second (a), (b) (c) pattern looks like:

(a) = 84.10. Wave (a) consist of two -a-, -b-,-c- patterns;;

(b) triangle = 78.93.

(c) is now.

We had originally thought that wave (v) was going to end at the 89/90 level, which is about where wave .i. ended. What has really happened is that instead of wave -iii- being the longest leg, wave -v- is. Within our extended wave -v-, we have the following:

.i. = 89.57;

.ii. = 87.83;

.iii. = 95.78, if complete. Note the .iii.=1.618.i. projection target of 95.98!

.iv.  correction is next to be followed by a wave .v. rally to at least the wave .iii. high. This will end the second wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

What we want to draw you attention to is the projected end of the second wave (c). Using two different calculations we have a projected end at 97.38. This is a very powerful tool and we will be watching this level for a huge shorting opportunity.

 Although we are not fundamentalists, we are not sure what is going to get the USDX to collapse.... Debt issues, loss of confidence in the government, etc...


In the long term we can also project an end to wave C. If wave C=A=37.27. Guess where gold and our gold stock trades will be at when the USDX is at 37!



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