jan 25 end of day post!





Short Term Update:


Gold reached a high of 1108.90, in today’s day session, at the time that this Post was being written.


This high is still below of wave ^d^ high of 1109.90, and we still cannot rule out the possibility that wave ^e^ is still not complete at the 1092.60 low.


If wave ^e^ is over at the 1092.60 low, then we should expect a sharp thrust higher in wave *c* will be the next big event in this market.


This thrust will likely happen in the overnight session, or in the next 24 hours,  if wave ^e^ is complete at the 1092.60 low.


Retracement targets for end of wave .b. are shown below, but our minimum target is the 1113.10 high.


If wave ^e^ is not complete and we fall back below the 1092.60 low, then we cannot drop below the wave ^c^ low of 1071.10, for our current triangle formation to remain valid.


Our current wave *b* triangle formation looks like:


^a^ = 1046.80;

^b^ = 1113.10;

^c^ = 1071.10;

^d^ = 1109.90;

^e^ = 1092.60, if complete to complete all of our wave *b* triangle.


Retracements for the end of wave .b. are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Once we are sure wave *b* is complete we can also provide projections for the end of wave *c*.


Our current count for wave .b. is:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* triangle (details above) = 1092.60, if complete;

*c* thrust higher is next with projections shown above, for end of all of wave .b.


Longer Term Update:


Wave .b. has now become more complex and we expecting further gains to complete all of wave .b. Upon completion of wave .b., we expect a drop back to the 1045.40 low, in wave .c., to complete a major low in gold in either wave 4 or wave ii of 3.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


Crude was lower today reaching 30.22, in today’s day session, at the time that this Post was being written. In spite of today’s drop today’s Morning Post comments remain valid, and are repeated below:


“On the Intraday Chart, from the 27.37 low to the current high of 32.74 we appear to have a 3 wave rally in place. If our 3 wave rally turns into an impulsive 5 wave structure then we can assume that the 27.37 low is going to last for a while. Longer term we still have the Suncor Chart count that if correct is suggesting that crude is going to drop below the 27.37 again in the not to distance future.


Long Term Update:


We now think that crude is still going lower, before wave b of B, ends with a below $20 as being likely.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops. Going to long Suncor at 13.05!




See the attached Daily S&P Chart.





Short Term Update:


The S&P was lower in today’s session reaching 1886.81. It is possible that wave .i.  is now complete at the 1908.85 high. If that is the case then we should now be dropping in a wave .ii. setback. Retracement levels for wave .ii. are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1860.57;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1849.18.


A break below 1812.29, would eliminate our wave (iv) pattern and suggest that the S&P has topped out and is heading substantially lower. We will go long this market at 1850.00, risking to 1812.00.


Long Term Update:


Wave (iv) took a different path then our triangle option, and it now looks like we are heading sharply higher in wave (v), to at least the all time high of 2134.72. 


Active Trading Positions: Going long at 1850.00, risking to 1812.00!




Short Term Update:


The USDX did not accomplish anything in today’s day session either, so our current comments remain valid. So, we repeat what we said in our last End of Week Post below:


“This market continues to churn, but what is clear on the Intraday Chart is that the rally from 92.21 low is corrective. Our wave .iv. triangle was eliminated this week as our thrust to 99.89, was reversed, but the market had not really moved lower. We are now thinking that our wave .iv. triangle could be extending and in that case we would have the following count:


*a* = 97.21;

*b* = 99.89, if complete;

*c* drop is next;

*d* and *e to go.


A move above 99.89, would indicate that wave *b* is still underway. If wave *c* has begun then we cannot drop below the 97.21 wave *a*, for this current triangle count to remain valid.


We are short this market but will raise our stop to 100.59, juts in case wave *b* is not complete the 99.89 high.


Long Term Trading Update:


It now looks like our wave .iv. triangle is extending and will likely churn for another couple of weeks.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. triangle is still underway.

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


The other much more bearish count is shown on the attached Weekly USDX(Alternate) Chart. In this our second (a), (b), (c) pattern from the wave i low of 71.33, ended at 100.72 and we are now falling in another 3 wave pattern. Within this 3 wave pattern we are working on wave -c-, with projections of 88.35 and 80.79.


All of our alternate counts will become valid if we drop below the 96.64 high.


Active Trading Positions: We short, risking to 100.59!




Short Term Update:


There is bit of volatility in this market but we are now seeing what looking like a valid count for all of wave .b. of -b- as follows: (wave .a. ended at 2.045)


*a* = 2.170;

*b* triangle:

^a^ = 2.069;

^b^ = 2.189;

^c^ = 2.082;

^d^ = 2.171, if complete. Wave ^d^ cannot rally above the wave ^b^ high for this triangle formation to remain valid.

^e^ drop is now to complete all of the wave *b*triangle.


Upon completion of wave *b*, we should expect a sharp thrust higher in wave *c*, to complete all of wave .b. When wave *b* ends, we will be able to provide some projections for its end.


Our retracement levels for wave .b. are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.271;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.324


Upon completion of wave .b. we expect one more drop in wave .c. to at least the wave .a. low of 2.045 to complete all of wave -b-.


Retracement levels for the end of wave -b- are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.089;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.993


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- = 2.494;


.a. = 2.045, if complete;

.b. rally is underway;

.c. drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2.045, to complete all of wave -b-;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Long 5 at 2.05, risking to 1.69, but will take profits at 2.29!


HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:


See the attached Daily CRJ Chart.




Short Term Update:


As we indicated in today’s Morning Post, the GDX was higher, reaching 13.40, but we still do NOT see an impulsive wave structure on the Intraday Chart from the 12.40 low!


 This suggests, unfortunately, that we are going to revisit the 12.40 again, likely when gold starts its wave .c. lower.  


As you can see on the attached Daily CRJ Chart, we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave ^v^ and wave *iii*, at today’s high of 1.00!!! It could still be possible that wave ^iv^ is not complete at the 0.835 low, and that it could still become a triangle. If wave *iii* of -v- is now complete we should expect a drop in wave *iv* to be followed by one more rally above 1.00 to complete all of wave 1.


The attached Daily CRJ Chart shows the suggested path. Kinross was actually lower today, as we are still expecting a drop to the 1.07 level. ABX reached a new high for wave –iv- of 9.34, but we suspect that it should turn down shortly in wave –v-, which should see it reach the 5.89 low again. We will update the 120 Min ABX Chart and include it in tomorrow’s Morning Post.


Long Term Update:


Expect lower prices in the XAU and HUI, before wave B ends. We not only continue to hold all of our gold stocks and may just start to add more, as this sector is about to turn sharply higher!!


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!


Note: The Captain will be in the USA between 01/31 and 02/03. Posting should remain unaffected, except on the morning of 02/03, where there will be NO Morning Post.