jan 26 end of day post!

CAPTAIN EWAVE END OF DAY POST!

 

Gold:

 

See the attached Daily Gold Chart.

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016jan26goldewpm.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

In today’s Morning Post we talked about the end of wave *b* and the start of our wave *c* thrust. In the overnight session, the wave *c* thrust had reached our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave .b. at 1118.60 and also our *c*= 0.618*a* projection of 1119.10, as the overnight high was 1118.00.

 

If wave *c* and all of wave .b. are now complete at/near the 1118.00 high, then the next big event would be a drop in wave .c. to at least the wave .a. low of 1045.60.

 

We also advised that our next projection for wave .b. was the 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level which is 1135.80 and also the *c* = *a* projection of 1135.40. WE could reach those levels before wave *c* and all of wave .b. end.

 

In today’s day session we continued to move higher reaching 1123.20, at the time that this Post was being written. This level is still close enough to our initial projections for the end of wave *c* and all of wave.b., but if we continue to move much higher than our 1135.00 area will become more likely for the end of wave *c* and all of wave .b..

 

With wave *b* being complete at the 1092.60 low, we can provide projections for the end of wave *c*, as follows:

 

*c* = 0.618*a* = 1119.10;

*c* = *a* = 1135.40;

*c* = 1.618*a* = 1061.90. We doubt this will happen as this type of rally would break the upper red trend line on the attached Daily Gold Chart, which would eliminate the current diagonal triangle formation.

 

On the Intraday Chart, we have NO indication that wave*c* is complete at the current high of 1123.20, but we need to be on guard for its end.

 

Retracements for the end of wave .b. are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.

 

Our current count for wave .b. is:

 

*a* = 1088.30;

*b* triangle = 1092.60;

*c* = 1123.20, if complete, although we have higher projections shown above, for end of all of wave .b.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Watch for the completion of wave .b. and the start of wave .c. lower, which has minimum target of the wave .a. low which is 1045.60.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!

 

Crude:

 

Short Term Update:

 

In today’s Morning Post we indicated that crude could go in either direction, and based on today’s day session trading it looks like we are heading above the 32.74 high, in the hours and days ahead.

 

In today’s day session we reached a high of 32.41, at the time that this Post was being written. The big question on our minds that whether a major low has been achieved in crude at the 27.37 low, or whether this rally is just another correction in a further future drop to new lows.

 

As we have said a couple of times, our EWave analysis of the Suncor Weekly Chart(Not attached) is suggesting that crude ultimately going lower.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We now think that crude is still going lower, before wave b of B, ends with a drop below $20 as being likely.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops. Going to go long Suncor at 13.05!

 

S&P: 

 

See the attached Daily S&P Chart.

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016jan26sp1pm.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was sharply higher today, gaining back everything it lost in yesterday session. We are working on the assumption that we are now rallying in wave (v), to al time new highs. Within that rally, we think we completed wave .i. at 1908.85, and the current setback is wave .ii. Our retracement levels for wave .ii. are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1860.57;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1849.18.

 

Yesterday’s low was 1875.97, which is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1860.57. Based on that we still believe that we are in a wave .ii. correction, and we should drop again to at least the 1860 level to complete all of wave .ii.

 

A significant rally above the wave .i. high of 1908.85 would suggest that all of wave .ii. ended at 1875.97, and that we have started wave .iii. higher. Likewise a break below 1812.29, would eliminate our wave (iv) pattern and suggest that the S&P has topped out and is heading substantially lower.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (iv) took a different path then our triangle option, and it now looks like we are heading sharply higher in wave (v), to at least the all time high of 2134.72.

 

Active Trading Positions: Going long at 1850.00, risking to 1812.00!

 

USDX:

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX dropped to a low of 99.08 in today’s day session, but we are still pretty range bound in this market. A drop below 98.80 would start to get us excited. We repeat our last comments below:

 

“This market continues to churn, but what is clear on the Intraday Chart is that the rally from 92.21 low is corrective. Our wave .iv. triangle was eliminated this week as our thrust to 99.89, was reversed, but the market had not really moved lower. We are now thinking that our wave .iv. triangle could be extending and in that case we would have the following count:

 

*a* = 97.21;

*b* = 99.89, if complete;

*c* drop is next;

*d* and *e to go.

 

A move above 99.89, would indicate that wave *b* is still underway. If wave *c* has begun then we cannot drop below the 97.21 wave *a*, for this current triangle count to remain valid.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It now looks like our wave .iv. triangle is extending and will likely churn for another couple of weeks.

 

Our current count for all of wave -v- is:

 

.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. triangle is still underway.

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.

 

The other much more bearish count is shown on the attached Weekly USDX(Alternate) Chart. In this our second (a), (b), (c) pattern from the wave i low of 71.33, ended at 100.72 and we are now falling in another 3 wave pattern. Within this 3 wave pattern we are working on wave -c-, with projections of 88.35 and 80.79.

 

All of our alternate counts will become valid if we drop below the 96.64 high.

 

Active Trading Positions: We short, risking to 100.59!

 

NG:

 

Short Term Update:

 

Unlike gold, it appears that wave *c* of .b. ended at the overnight high of 2.214. This is because this market has dropped back into the wave *b* triangle zone, as we reached a low today of 2.115, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

Our current count for all of wave .b. is:

 

*a* = 2.170;

*b* triangle:

^a^ = 2.069;

^b^ = 2.189;

^c^ = 2.082;

^d^ = 2.171;

^e^ = 2.129;

*c* = 2.214, to complete at least a single *a*, *b*, *c* pattern within wave .b. or possibility all of wave .b. Our *c* = 0.618*a* = 2.206 projection was reached for all of wave *c* also.

 

The one concern we have with declaring that all of wave .b. is complete at the 2.214 high is that we are still below our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 2.271. Our retracement levels for wave .b. are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.271;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.324

 

So it could be possible that all of wave .b. is now complete at the 2.214 high, and that we are now heading lower in wave .c. to at least our wave .a. low of 2.045 to complete all of wave -b-.

 

The other option is that wave .b. is becoming more complex and that we will  see a wave *x* pattern to be followed by  another *a*, *b*, *c* pattern, that will ultimately end within our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone for all of wave .b.

 

Let’s see how this market trades in the overnight session, to see which option it is going to follow.

 

Retracement levels for the end of wave -b- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.089;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.993

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):

 

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.

 

For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :

 

-a- = 2.494;

-b-:

.a. = 2.045, if complete;

.b.= 2.214, if complete;

.c. drop to at least the wave .a. low of 2.045, to complete all of wave -b-;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 5 at 2.05, risking to 1.69, but will take profits at 2.29!

 

HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:

 

Short Term Update:

The GDX had an impressive rally, reaching 14.00 in today’s session! We still are waiting to see that impulsive rally out of the 12.42 low, and until we do, we are still expecting a drop back to new lows, before wave B ends.

 

Our selected gold stocks were rather quiet today considering how much gold rallied. CRJ did not make a new high above $1.00, although it lead GDX by days in the move higher.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Expect lower prices in the XAU and HUI, before wave B ends. We continue to hold all of our gold stocks and may just start to add more, as this sector is about to turn sharply higher.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!

 

Note: The Captain will be in the USA between 01/31 and 02/03. Posting should remain unaffected, except on the morning of 02/03, where there will be NO Morning Post.