jan 26 end of day update

Gold:

During today’s day session gold re-visited the overnight low of 1276.90. We really have nothing more to add, based on today’s day session trading that we did not say in today’s Morning Post. Should we rally above 1300.00, from here, will likely can declare that wave ^iv^ ended at 1276.90. From the ^iii^ high of 1305.10, one possible count for the wave ^iv^ correction is:

*a* = 1279.70;

*b* = 1307.30;

*c* diagonal triangle:

+i+ = 1284.50;

+ii+ = 1296.40;

+iii+ = 1276.90;

+iv+ = 1288.20;

+v+ = 1276.90, if complete to end all of wave ^iv^.

Since the triangle option has been eliminated, there is still a chance that wave ^iii^ did not end at 1305.10. Should gold continue to drop and retrace more than 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the wave ^iii^ rally, then we would be thinking that wave ^iii^ is extending with wave *i* of ^iii^  ending at 1305.10, and that the current sell-off would be wave *ii* of ^iii^. This would be a very bullish outcome for gold.

No change to current 7 long positions, risking to 1225.00.

 St comments: The Captain is on a roll. You know my views on the sentiment in the gold community that was ultra-negative over the week-end and this morning, and opened the door to a blast through $1305, into your personal upside surprise and party time zone!

Crude:

 

Crude appears to be rallying in our expected wave .iv. of -c- diagonal triangle, which we have repeated below:

“(a):

-a- = 46.77;

-b- = 45.03

-c- = 51.20, to complete all of wave (a).

(b):

-a-= 45.96:

-b-:

.a. = 46.19;

.b. triangle = 47.13;

.c. = 49.07, a 12 tick failure.

-c- diagonal triangle:

.i. = 45.88;

.ii. = 47.75;

.iii. =  44.35;

.iv. = 46.36, if complete;

.v. drop is now to at least the 44.35 low, to complete all of wave (b).

Upon completion of wave (b) we will expect a sharp wave (c) rally to at least the wave (a) high of 51.20, but likely higher”

Should crude continue to rally now above 45.75, we likely will conclude that all of wave (b) ended at 44.35.

We have bought 44.00 puts to protect our 4 long positions.

We are long 4 positions, with 44 puts.

 

S&P:

Please click here now:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan26spewpm.png

 

The S&P traded below our lower up trend line, in today’s session. In order for this diagonal triangle to have the right look, we believe that it has become a rare expanding diagonal triangle, with wave .iv. ending at today’s low of 2040.97. Legs of diagonal triangle consist of single or multiple 3 wave patterns, so we are expecting that the wave .v. rally will be full of overlapping waves on the intraday chart.

Our minimum target for the end of wave .v. and all of wave (ii) is the wave .iii. high of 2062.14.

Should this current rally fail to reach the minimum target of 2062.14, we would likely proclaim wave .v. to be a failure, which we do not do very often.

We are short 4 S&P at the market, risking to 2094.

USDX:

 

It looks like wave .iii. ended at the overnight high of 95.85, just 13 ticks below our projected high of 95.98. Wave .iv. appears to be underway. Although it is a little too early to determine what corrective pattern wave .iv. will follow we can project its expected retracement level as follows:

23.6 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 93.96;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 92.79.

Our trading strategy is to let wave .iv. and .v. play out and then look to aggressively short at our 97.38 level.

 

NG:

 

Nothing new to report here. We are still reviewing our current analysis and will provide and update when it is complete.

HUI/GDX:

 

Please click here now: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan26gdxpmew.png

 

As we suggested in today’s Morning Post, the HUI/GDX did drop. Serious EWavers need to look at the attached 60 Min GDX Chart. The likely end of wave .c. and wave -iv- is 21.13. Note the projections that we talked about after wave -iii- ended and then after wave .b. ended:

.c. = 1.618.a. = 21.14…1 tick from the actual low;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement of wave -iii- = 21.08….6 ticks from the actual low.

Does not get better than that!

St comments: Does not get better than that, at least, not until tomorrow!

Now, back to the Captain:

We will wait until tomorrow to provide projections for the end of wave -v-, after we have confirmed that wave -iv- is now complete at today’s low of 21.13. As a minimum wave -v- will reach the wave    -iii- high of 23.22, but we expect it to go much higher than that. We can rule the possibility that wave -iv- could become more complex and consist of several .a., .b., .c. formations. No way of knowing in real time, however.

If wave ^iv^ is gold is over, then we expect that wave -iv- in the HUI/GDX is likely over also.

 

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 19.87.