jan 26 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a low of 1185.00, at the time that this Post was being written.   

 

We are can now conclude that all of wave *i* ended at the 1218.90 high and that we are now falling in our expected wave *ii* correction.  

We have been watching and waiting for this correction for a week or so. Our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels for the end of wave *ii* are shown on the Daily Gold Chart and are as follows;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1171.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1160.40.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

.i.:

*i* = 1218.90;

*ii* correction is now underway and we expect further weakness.

*iii* rally after wave *ii* ends. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave *ii* when we are sure that wave *ii* is complete.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low., and we are now rallying in the early stages of wave -iii-.We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session reaching a low of 16.68 at the time that this Post was being written.

 

We can now conclude that all of wave ^i^ of .i. of -iii-, is complete at the 17.36 high and that we are now falling in our expected wave ^ii^ correction, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. Our retracements levels for all of wave ^ii^ are;

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.52;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.32.

 

Our current count for all of wave -iii- is:

 

^i^ = 17.36;

^ii^ drop is now underway, and we believe it is still not complete.

^iii^ rally after wave ^ii^ ends. We will provide our projections for the end of wave ^iii^ when we are sure that wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91;

-iii-=2.618-i-=35.47.

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude continued to move sideways in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.  

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.

 

We have now completed the minimum requirements for our wave $b$ bearish triangle, at the 53.67 high. Nothing says that this bearish triangle cannot expand and extend in the next couple of days, but it does not need to.

 

We note that on the Intraday Chart, crude appears to be working on a triangle, which could indicate that our wave $b$ triangle is extending.

 

If our bearish wave $b$ triangle is complete at the 53.67 high then we should now expect crude to fall in wave $c$, to complete all of wave ^ii^. A rally now above the 55.24 high would eliminate this bearish wave $b$ triangle.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ triangle = 53.67, if complete;

$c$ drop to come after wave $b$ ends, to complete all of wave ^ii^, with a minimum target of 49.95.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was higher in yesterday’s day session reaching another all-time new high at 2299.55, and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are unchanged, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The S&P is now reached and exceeded our projected target, and we are now looking for a significant drop in wave -iv- to begin very soon.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017!

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX reached a new low at 99.77 in yesterday’s day session, but in the overnight session e rallied to a high of 100.51, at the time that this Post was being written. WE still expect further downside in this market.

 

If our current analysis is correct, we should see the USDX fall sharply this week in wave ^iii^ of *iii*.  A drop to 99.25 seems likely now.

 

Our current count for wave (c) and the start of iii is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii:

.i.:

*i* = 101.30;

*ii* = 102.96;

*iii*:

^i^ = 100.70;

^ii^ = 101.71;

^iii^ is now underway. Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is: ^iii^=1.618^i^=97.04.

 

Projections for wave *iii* are:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=98.88;

*iii*=2.618*i*=96.36.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high. We are now falling in wave iii.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.80!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a high of 3.486, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

It is now looking like wave *b* did not end at the 3.513 high and that we are either going back to that level in a 3 wave rally that started at the 3.099 low, or that wave *b* is becoming a bearish triangle. The next few days of trading should provide us our answer.

 

Our updated count for all of wave c is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.901;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.099

*b* = 3.513, if complete;

*c* is still underway with a minimum target of 3.099, to complete all of wave -ii-, if wave *b* ended at the 3.513 high.

-iii- to start after wave -ii- ends.

 

We will update our first wave -iii- projection after wave -ii- ends.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long, risking to 2.54, and will add at 3.07!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s day session and it now looks like all of wave (i) ended at the 24.25 high.

We should now be falling wave (ii), as shown on the Daily GDX Chart. Our retracement levels for the of wave (ii) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.42;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.72.

 

Upon completion of wave (ii) we expect a very sharp rally in wave (iii). We will provide our projections foe the end of wave (iii) when we are sure that wave (ii) is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions. 

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!