JAN 27 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

ST: Add Monthly NG Chart and GDX Weekly Chart.

 

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2719gold.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold reached a low of 1275.30 this week, but on Friday we moved sharply higher to close above the 1300.00 level. We also had a key weekly reversal higher this week which is bullish!

 

We continue to rally in a larger subdividing wave !iii! of $iii$. Within wave !iii!, we believe that we only completed wave ?iii? of !iii! at the 1300.40 high.

 

We believe that all of wave ?iv? of !iii!, ended this week at the 1275.30 low and that we have now started to move sharply higher in wave ?v? of !iii!.

 

The recent corrective rally in the USDX looks to have ended at the 96.38, and if that is the case the we should now be moving sharply lower in wave $iii$ that will result in gold accelerating higher. Expect higher gold prices next week.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20, but we have higher projections also.

 

Longer term, our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2619si.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Silver reached a low of 15.20 this past week, but on Friday we moved sharply higher for the week we reached a high of 15.71.

    

The recent correction is silver is likely complete at the 15.20 low and we should therefore be heading higher now in our continuing wave ^iii^ rally.

 

Our projected target for the end of wave ^iii^ is 16.94.

 

 

The next big challenge will be to break and close above our red weekly downtrend line that connects 21.23 and 17.35, that is shown on the Weekly Silver Chart.

 

 

We expect higher prices next week!

 

Our updated first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 26.09.

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield was higher this past week as we reached a high of 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

All of wave (i) is complete at the 3.248{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and that we continue to fall in a multi-month wave (ii) correction. Our current internal wave structure wave (ii) is suggesting that we are falling in a 3 wave pattern of which we have now completed all of wave $iii$ of *a* at the 2.554{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and we are continuing to rally in wave $iv$.

 

The current wave $iv$ rally is within our 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion and then the start of wave $iv$ lower to complete all of wave *a* of (ii).

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave (ii) are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.489{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

In the lower term we are working on a larger wave iii rally that has an initial projection of 4.11{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, although it should take many months to get there.

 

The 10 Year Bond Yield reached a historic low of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} on July 06, 2017, and we have now started to rally higher. We expect over the next number of years, that US 10 Year Bond Yields will rally back to at least the 15.84{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level that was reached in September of 1981.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude:

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Weekly Crude Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2619oil.png

 

Crude was higher this past week as we reached a high of 54.51.                                                                                          

 

We now show a double 3 wave corrective pattern from the all-time high of 147.27 to the 26.05 low and have labeled this drop as wave A.

 

We are now rallying in a complex wave B that will include a number of 3 wave patterns. We have multiple options for wave B as we have explained here previously and have adopted Option 1 below, as our preferred:

 

Option 1:

a:

(a) = 51.67;

(b) triangle = 45.58;

(c) =  76.90, if complete, to complete just wave a of our first abc pattern, within wave B;

 

In this option, since wave a is a 3 wave pattern then the wave b drop is going either be a flat or irregular type correction that will see crude fall back the vicinity of 26.05 or even below it before it ends. Wave b could also become a triangle.

 

Wave (a) ended at the 42.36 low, and we are now rallying in a corrective wave (b) rally a shown on the Weekly Crude Chart. If we assume that wave (b) will be a just a simple 3 wave pattern, it may now be possible that all of  wave -a- of (b), may be complete at the 54.51 high. Upon completion of wave -a- we expect a wave -b- drop that should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally. This is shown graphically on our Daily Crude Chart.

 

Suncor:

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2619su.png

 

Suncor was marginally higher this past week reaching a high of 32.27.

 

Our current count for Suncor is suggesting that we are now heading back to the wave a low of 13.10. We have completed wave b of B at the 42.27 high, and are now falling in wave c of B. This count is suggesting that crude will likely he heading back to the 26.05 low also, which is our preferred count in wave b also.

 

Wave c will likely be impulsive which means it will have a 5 wave structure on its way down. Wave (i) ended at the 25.81 low, and we are now rallying in wave (ii). Wave (ii) is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop, with those retracement levels being shown on the Suncor Weekly Chart.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put at 57.00 as a stop!                                    

 

SP500

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2719sp.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The SP500 was marginally lower this past week.   

 

Our count within wave (iii), is suggesting that only wave -i- ended at 2346.58 and that we are now rallying in wave -ii- are shown on the Weekly SP500 Chart. We should be getting close to completing all of wave -ii-. Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp drop in wave -iii- of (iii) as shown on the Weekly SP500 Chart.

 

Our first and second projections for the end of wave (iii) are :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 1919.69.

 

Active Positions: Very Short!

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan27usd.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 96.37, although on Friday we moved sharply lower, to reach a low of 95.40.

 

We are now be falling in the early stages of wave (iii), as shown on the Weekly USDX chart. We are now falling in wave -i- of ^i^, and within wave ^i^ we have completed wave $i$ at 94.64 and likely all of wave $ii$ this week at the 96.37 high.

 

We should then expect the USDX to move sharply lower in wave $iii$.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75!

 

NG:  

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2719ng.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

NG was lower this past week as we reached a low of 2.90, although by the end of week we have recovered to around the 3.15 level.

 

It is looking like NG just completed another 3 wave rally from 1.61 to the current high of 4.93, and that we are now starting to work on another 3 wave drop that will end at least at the 1.61 low to complete all of wave B. We have shown our initial thoughts on this count in our Monthly NG Chart. We will need to review the internal working of this updated count in our Daily NG Chart in the days ahead.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX: 

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2719gdx.png

 

Longer Term Update:

 

The GDX reached a low of 20.22 this past week, but on Friday we moved sharply higher to reach high of 21.27.

 

Looking at the Weekly GDX Chart you can see that we are working on a multi-year wave C rally which is consistent with all of the other counts that we have in the HUI, XAU and most gold stocks.

 

All of the gold indices and gold stock should have now completed their respective wave 2 corrections.

 

Our current trading strategy is to buy and hold gold stocks and associated indices to capture all of the upcoming wave 3 rally. Wave 3 should last a year or two and be very sharply higher in price.

 

In the case of the GDX this target is 48.60!

 

Our Daily and 60 Min GDX Charts contoured to show a very large wave *iv* bullish triangle, which is now expanding and extending. We completed wave ^c^ of that triangle his week at the 20.22 low and are now rallying in wave ^d^, a shown on our 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

We may see the completion of wave ^d^ and ^e^ next week, which will then complete all of wave *iv* triangle.

 

After that we should expect a very large thrust higher in wave *v* that should reach our wave -iii- target of at least 23.49.                   

 

A major low in all gold stocks and related indices has occurred, and Subscribers are encouraged to position themselves accordingly.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!