jan 28 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in yesterday’s day session after the corona virus blast higher overnight.  In the overnight session we have moved a lower, to 1570.60.            

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and within wave *v* all of wave $i$ ended at the spike high of 1613.30, and we are now falling in wave $ii$. Our retracement levels for all of wave $ii$ remain at:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

The current low of 1536.40 is still a bit short of our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 1529.80, so we probably should expect a little more weakness before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

Wave $ii$ in gold may be forming a 3 wave pattern with wave ^a^ ending at 1536.40, which we have now shown on our Daily Gold Chart as our alternate count.

 

In this count we could rallying in wave ^b^, which maybe now already be complete at the 1588.40 high!

 

After wave ^b^ ends we should expect one more drop in wave ^c^, below the 1536.40 low, to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

Silver and the GDX have all dropped within their retracement levels for their respective corrections, however, so there is an outside chance that wave $ii$ in gold could be complete at the 1536.40 low.

 

Once wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in higher in wave $iii$.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached 17.73.     

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and have now completed wave $i$ of ^iii^ at the 18.89 high. We are now falling in wave $ii$, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.73;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 17.46.

 

We have now entered our retracement zone, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave $ii$ at the 17.59 low, although we have shown an alternate count on the Daily Silver Chart that is suggesting that wave $ii$ is still underway.

 

In this count we should expect to revisit the 17.59 low one more time before all of wave $ii$ ends.

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we are sure that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820oil.png  

 

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 53.38 level.  Booked big profits on the short trade!

 

We are now falling in wave *d* of our wave (b) bearish triangle, though we are now waiting for confirmation that it is complete at the 52.13 low. Wave *d* can still far further, but it cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Once wave *d* ends we expect another rally in wave *e* to complete the wave (b) bearish triangle.

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is complete at the 34.56 high. If that is the case we are now starting to fall sharply in wave (iii).   

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Short Suncor risking to $35.00!                               

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 1.605{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session as we have moved higher to 1.624{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now updated our wave (iv) count to indicate that it is likely becoming a pure bearish triangle, with wave *a* ending at 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We are now falling in wave *b*, which could be complete a the 1.605{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

If that is the case then we should start to rally again in wave *c*, as shown graphically on our Daily US 10 year Bond Yield Chart. Wave *c* cannot rally above the wave *a* high of 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Once wave (iv) ends we should fall in wave (v) that has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a low of 3234.50.

 

In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are higher by about 20 points.  

 

On the Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we are not sure of the current wave count within wave (iii). We will update that count when we are sure.

 

Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 97.92.

 

We are still waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX moved lower in yesterday’s trading session, as we reached a low of 573.12.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 591.23 to the current low of 571.42 still looks corrective, which is suggesting higher prices lie ahead, after this correction ends.

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts.

 

We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan2820gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a high of 29.66, but the action was disappointing after that.

 

Regardless, it looks like all of wave -ii- is complete at the 27.68 low and that we have started to rally sharply higher in wave -iii-!

 

Our initial projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-= 34.28.

 

The only issue with this count is whether gold has completed its correction at the 1536.70 low, and we have now shown an alternate count on the 60 Min GDX Chart that is suggesting that the GDX is heading back to the 27.68 low one more time to complete all of wave -ii- or $ii$.   

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42!

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

 

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew