jan 28 morning update

Gold:

 

Please click here now:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan28goldewam1.png

 

Gold was dropped from yesterday’s day session high of 1298.50 to the overnight session low of 1285.90, in a corrective fashion. We expect gold to move higher after this small correction is completed. Once we break above the wave ^iii^ high gold should accelerate higher.

In yesterday’s End of Day Post we provided an projections for the end of wave ^v^ and .iii. and have repeated them here:

“Projections for the end of wave ^v^:

^v^ =0.618(^i^) = 1321.00;

^v^ = ^i^ = 1350.50;

^v^ = 1.618(^i^) = 1398.20

Projections for the end of wave .iii.:

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 1374.90;

.iii. = 4.236.i. = 1477.60.

So we have range of projections from 1321.00 to 1477.60 with no apparent cluster of endpoints, like you will see in the HUI/GDX analysis below. For the time being we will watch to see how wave ^v^ subdivides, to see if we can refine our projections further. For the time being we are focusing on the 1375.00 level as the end of wave ^v^ and .iii.”

No change to current 7 long positions, risking to 1225.00.

Crude:

 

Based on the overnight trading in crude we have made some revisions to our wave (b) of iv correction as follows (changes highlighted);

(a):

-a- = 46.77;

-b- = 45.03

-c- = 51.20, to complete all of wave (a).

(b):

-a-= 45.96:

-b- = 49.07:

-c- diagonal triangle:

.i. = 46.40;

.ii. = 49.05;

.iii. = 44.35;

.iv. = 46.54;

.v.  is now to drop to at least the 44.35 low, to complete all of wave .v. and (b).

As note in yesterday’s End of Day Post. We did not our analysis since it was based on used failed waves.

Upon completion of wave (b) we will see a sharp rally in wave (c) to at least the wave (a) high of 52.10, but likely higher. We will provide our projections for wave (c) when wave (b) end.

Recommendation. Buy 2 positions at 44.20 plus buy 2 44 puts.

We are long 4 positions, with 44 puts.

 

S&P:

 Please click here now:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/2015jan28sp1.png  

Not much change to yesterday’s End of Day comments, so we have repeated that Post below: We have made a few changes to some typo’s and have highlighted them.

St comments: the Captain is pouring over a massive amount of ewave numbers constantly. Typos will happen, and he’s meticulously on the alert for them. If YOU think you see a typo… let us know. Thanks!

“The S&P continued sharply lower during the day session as it appears that wave (iii) has now begun. We are working on the assumption that wave (ii) ended as failure at 2057.62, as noted

on the attached chart. In the short term we likely finished wave .i. of -i- of (iii) at 2019.91 and are now rallying in wave .ii. Within wave .ii., wave ^a^ ended at 2043.13. We should now drop in wave ^b^ (might have ended at 2028.81) and then rally again in wave ^c^ to at least the wave ^a^ high of 2043.13, to complete all of wave .ii. Our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone for wave .ii. is 2038.77 and 2043.21 respectively.

Will add 2 additional short positions at 2044.00, risking to 2064.00.

Since waves (i) and (ii) are now complete we can provide projections for the end of wave (iii) as follows:

(iii) = (i) = 1957.00;

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 1894.00. Preferred Target;

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 1792.90.

As the S&P falls we will see how wave (iii) subdivides and refine our preferred target as we work lower. We have lowered our stops to 2063.

We are short 4 S&P at the market, risking to 2063.”

USDX:

 

The USDX traded sideways in the overnight session and it looks like we are falling in an impulsive fashion from the wave .iii. high of 95.85. This drop is likely wave *a* of .iv. and currently looks like:

^i^ = 94.98;

^ii^ = 95.31;

^iii^ = 93.95;

^iv^ is now;

^v^ drop is next, to complete all of wave *a* of .iv.

After the completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* rally.

Remember our projections for the end of wave .iv. are:

23.6 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 93.96;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 92.79.

 

NG:

 

Nothing new to report here. We are still reviewing our current analysis and will provide and update when it is complete.

HUI/GDX:

 

We provided a series of projections for the end of waves -v- and  (iii) in yesterday’s End of Day Post and we will be focusing on the 30.00 area, based on that work. We have repeated that analysis below:

“-v- = wave –iii- high = 23.22

-v- = 0.618(-iii- - end of wave (ii)) = 21.13 + 0.618(23.22-17.76) = 24.50;

-v- = 1.618(-iii- - end of wave (ii)) = 21.13 + 1.618(23.22-17.76) = 29.96.

Projections for the end of wave (iii):

(iii) = 4.236(i) = 25.97;

(iii) = 6.25(i) = 29.89.

 

So we have range of projections from 23.22 to 29.96, and we draw your attention to the highlighted numbers of 29.89/29.96. For the time being we will watch to see how wave -v- subdivides, but we must respect the possibility that the GDX is heading to the 30.00 area for the top of wave -v- and (iii). Wave -v- will consist of an impulsive wave sequence.

In the short term we should be expecting the end of wave .i. of -v- to end shortly….probably around 23.22.

We will move our stops to 21.12 after we trade above the wave -iii- high of 23.22.

 

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 19.87!