JAN 29 MORNING POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE DAILY CHARTS UPDATE

 

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918gold.png  

Short Term Update:

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 1365.40 to the current low of 1339.80 looks like a corrective pattern, which could be suggesting that gold still wants to go higher within wave ^i^, or it could be part of a complex wave ^ii^ drop also. We also need to watch to see if wave $iii$ in the USDX is complete at the current low of 88.25.

 

It could now be possible that all of wave ^i^ is complete at the 1365.40 high, and in that case we should now expect gold to drop in our expected wave ^ii^ correction. However, we still are unable to confirm the end of wave ^i^, so this rally could still extend further and challenge the 1378.00 high, as shown on the Daily Gold Chart, before wave ^i^ ends. 

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^, we should expect a wave ^ii^ correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection of the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=1495.20.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders that have taken profits can now wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends to re-enter long. We plan to stay long and add at the end of wave ^ii^.   

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops, and will add at the end of wave ^ii^!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver continues to trade similar to gold since the recent high….

 

Like gold it could now be possible that all of wave ^i^ is complete at the 17.71 high, but on the Intraday Chart the drop from 17.71 to 17.13 is a 3 wave pattern, which could be suggesting that silver is still going to rally in an extending wave ^i^. If wave ^i^ continues to extend, and a run to the 18.29 level, or even the 18.55/18.66 level, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, is likely before it ends.    

 

Upon completion of wave ^i^ we expect to see a wave ^ii^ correction, that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave ^i^ is complete.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. =  22.03.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders who took profits can wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends before entering long again. We plan to hold and add at the end of wave ^ii^.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude continues to trade near its current high of 66.66.

 

Our current thinking remains unchanged, although our analysis is getting a little stretched, and we need to see crude turn down now for this analysis to remain valid.  

 

We have reached our upper red trendline as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. So if our current analysis is correct, we suspect all of wave $v$ and ^c^ and *b* is nearing completion, with this final push higher.

 

The rally from the wave *a* of .ii. low of 39.19 is not impulsive looking, so we are still expecting that we are correcting in a complex wave .ii. pattern. If this observation is correct then crude will be heading back to the 39.19 low again, once this current corrective pattern ends.

 

Suncor: We moved higher within a complex wave .b. rally and have reached a high of 38.39. We continue to watch for confirmation that all of wave .b. is complete at the current high, and that wave .c. lower is now underway. If wave *b* in crude is complete at the 64.77 high then wave .b. is Suncor is complete at the 38.39 high and we should now be starting wave .c. lower.

 

Trading Recommendation: Aggressive traders should be short crude now with a 65.00 call as stop.  

 

Active Positions: We are now short, with calls as a stops. We will go long Suncor at 26.00!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918sp.png  
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P is now rising at a rate of 30 to 50 points a week, which is unstainable and is going to end very badly. With Daily Sentiment also most at 97{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, a top is very near.

 

This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher. If our current analysis is correct, we should expect to see a very large drop in the S&P… 100 plus points in the near future.      

 

This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short and use calls as stops.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

It could now be possible that all of wave $iii$ is complete at the 88.25 low, although we are still a bit short of our second projected end point. The rally from 88.25 to the current high looks likes like a 3 wave pattern, which is suggesting that the USDX could still be going lower, before wave $iii$ ends. 

 

Once wave $iii$ ends we should expect wave $iv$ to rally between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ drop. We will provide our retracement levels for wave $iv$ when we are sure that all of wave $iii$ is complete.

 

We suspect that the end of wave $iii$ will match the end of wave ^i^ in both gold and silver also.

 

Our next projection for the end of wave $iii$ are:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 87.30.

 

Active Positions: Flat

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG traded sideways in Friday’s day session and again in the overnight session. We now need to consider our very bearish count that we have been talking about.

 

The rally from 2.57 to 3.63 is now a clear 3 wave pattern which is bearish and is suggesting that NG is now heading back to at least the 2.57 low, but possibility much lower than that…. maybe even to the 1.61 level, in a complex flat correction within a large wave (iv) pattern. We will provide an updated count in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: No trade recommendation for today.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX:  

 

GDX Daily Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan2918gdx.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

It could be possible that all of wave -i- is now complete at the 24.86 high. However, wave -i- could still extend and have the potential to rally to the 25.50/26.00 level, before all of wave -i- ends.  

 

When wave -i- does end we should expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the end entire wave -i- rally.

 

We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that wave -i- is complete. 

 

Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 32.81.

 

We expect the wave iii will consist of a clear 5 wave impulsive pattern, of which we are now working on wave (i) of that pattern.   

 

Based on that we should expect the following from our current gold stocks/indices:

 

Kinross: Uncertain here. Nested bullish waves might be in play here. 

Barrick: Major low at 13.28, and we should now be heading sharply higher. 

Newmont: Higher with nested bullish waves in play here. 

SSR: Wave 2 still looks to be underway. Wave 1 ended at 19.53, back in July, 2016.  

HUI: Higher now. See Monthly Chart  

XAU: Higher now. See Monthly Chart.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!