jan 29 morning post!

Gold: 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919gold.png

Short Term Update:

 

Gold traded mostly sideways in yesterday’s day session, but in the overnight session we are trying to break above resistance at the 1300.00/1304.00 level as we have reached a high of 1310.50!!

 

We noted yesterday that gold needs to break cleanly above the 1304.00 level, on our way to the 1360.00 level!

   

Wave ?iv? is now complete at the at the 1275.70 low. We should therefore now be rallying in the initial stages of wave ?v? of !iii!, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

Our next projected target for the end of wave ?v? and !iii! is:

 

!iii! = 2.168!i! = 1358.40.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1447.20.

 

We do have higher projections. Of course, wave .iii. will subdivide into a 5 wave impulsive sequence in its journey higher.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver successfully tested the 15.64 support level in yesterday’s day session and then moved higher. That trend higher continued in the overnight session and we have reached a high of 15.93.

 

Like gold we have adopted our very bullish count that is suggesting that wave ^iii^ of .i. is still underway. Our next projected target for its completion is :

 

^iii^ = 4.25^i^ = 16.94.

 

Our current consolidation ended at the 15.20 low and we are now rallying again in a subdividing wave ^iii^.

 

Our next challenge will be resistance at the 16.05/16.10 level, which we believe will be breached!

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919oil.png

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 51.34. In the overnight session  have recovered some of yesterday’s day session losses to currently trading at the 52.52 level.

 

We continue to wait for the confirmation that all of wave *a* of (b) is complete at the 54.51 high, and that we have started to move lower in wave *b* of (b).

 

Our expected wave (b) rally is now underway. Our retracement level for all of wave (b) is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 59.41;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 63.52.

 

In the short term we have now shown a possible 3 wave pattern within wave (b), and if this pattern is what crude is doing, then all of wave *a* of (b), could now be complete at the 54.51 high. Upon completion of wave *a* we expect a wave *b* setback that will then be followed by another rally in wave *c* to complete all of wave (b).

 

We are expecting that wave *b* should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave *a* rally. Of course wave (b) could become much more complex than we are currently suggesting also. Since we are rallying in a wave (b), we should expect this rally to be choppy and full of an overlapping wave structure.

 

Suncor: We continue to rally in wave (ii). As a minimum the wave (ii) rally will have at least one 3 wave pattern, as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart. If crude has now completed wave *a* of (b), then we should except that Suncor has completed its first leg higher within wave (ii), at the 32.27 high. We should expect that the wave (ii) rally retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 34.04;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.98.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long with put at 57.00 as a stop!                                   

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919bond.png

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield traded sideways in yesterday’s day session, and that trend continue din the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 2.742{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.  We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave $iv$ is complete at the 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high, and that our wave $v$ drop is underway.

 

We continue fall in wave (ii). We expect wave (ii) to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.641{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.498{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

We should now be rallying in a small wave $iv$ corrective rally, which could be complete at the 2.799{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level. Our retracement levels for all of wave $iv$ are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.710;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.807.

 

We have now reached our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we really need to be guard for the completion of wave $iv$ and the start of another drop with wave $v$ of *a*, that will complete all of wave *a*, as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat now.

 

Active Positions: Flat now.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was lower in yesterday’s trading session although we did recover from the worst of those lows by the time the session ended. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 3 points.

 

We are continue to drop in sharply in wave (iii), which has an initial projection for its completion of

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 2256.01.

 

Within wave (iii), we are now subdividing with wave .i. ending at 2346.58 and we continue to move higher in an extended wave .ii. corrective rally, which should end soon. The end of wave .ii. may have occurred at the 2675.47 high. Our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level is:

 

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2703.11.

 

We need to be guard for the completion of wave .ii. now and the start of a very sharp drop in wave .iii. of (iii). A drop now below the 2600.00 level would likely confirm that all of wave .ii. is complete at the 2675.47 high. We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave .iii., once we believe that all of wave .ii. is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short with a call option as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with an updated call as a stop!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally lower in yesterday’s day session, and that trend continued in  the overnight session as we have reached low of 95.31.  

 

We still believe that wave (iii) lower is now underway, with our first projection for its completion being:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 72.37

 

Within wave (iii), we are now working on wave ^i^ and within wave ^i^ we likely completed all of wave $i$ at the 94.64 low. We have now entered our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone which is:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 96.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 96.54

 

It is now looking like all of wave $ii$ is complete at the 96.37 high and if that is the case then we should expect to USDX to move sharply lower in wave $iii$. We will provide our first projections for the end of wave $iii$ in the next day or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 97.75.

 

NatGas: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919ng.png

Short Term Update:

 

In spite of the very cold weather in the eastern USA, NG moved sideways in yesterday’s day session and that trend continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 2.811 level.

 

We are looking at dropping NG and replacing this market with another in the next week or so.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat!

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ewjan2919gdxd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, as we reached a high of 21.48.

 

We are only 6 ticks away form eliminating our current wave *iv* triangle formation. If that does happen we actually will provide an even more bullish count for the GDX, then we are currently showing, so in a way we are hoping that our current triangle count does get eliminated. If it does not, then the GDX must turn lower now in wave ^e^ to complete the current triangle formation. Upon completion of our wave *iv* triangle w should then expect a sharp thrust higher in the wave *v* to complete all of wave -iii- as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart.

 

We suspect that the GDX will open higher and eliminate our bullish triangle formation.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 23.49.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95.

 

We have the following counts, for the following:

 

Kinross: Has now completed its minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 2.38 low. Wave  (iii) rally is now underway.

 

Barrick:  We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii) at the 9.53 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

HUI: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low. Wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

XAU: We have completed the minimum requirements for a completed wave 2 at the 60.59 low. Wave 3 rally is now underway.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!