JAN 3 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321gold.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Gold moved sideways this past week, although we closed higher at 1895.10.

                                                                          

We continue to work on the assumption that wave *iii* is subdividing with all of wave ^i^ of *iii* ending at 2077.90.

 

We are now dropping in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

We now have a three (3) rally in place from 1767.20 to the 1912.00 high on the Daily Gold Chart which if it stands is suggesting that gold is heading lower back to the 1767.20 low.

 

For the time being will stay will our preferred count that suggests to us that wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

In this count if looks like all of our second wave (b) is complete at the 1912.00 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in our second wave (c) of ^ii^, which has minimum target of 1767.20, and likely lower than that.

 

A sharp break and close above our red downtrend lone would suggest that all of wave ^ii^ is likely complete at the 1767.20 low and that we are about to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^.  

 

Our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.  

 

We plan to add to our long gold at 1735.00.       

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and will add at 1735.00!   

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways past week although we also closed higher, at 26.41. 

                                                                  ,

We continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

Our preferred count is suggesting that our (ii) correction is still underway, with our bearish wave -b- triangle formation now expanding and extending.

 

Within our wave -b- bearish triangle, it looks like wave *c* could be complete at the 27.64 high and if that is the case then we are now falling in wave *d*.

 

After our wave -b- bearish triangle ends we expect one more drop wave -c- which should reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ii before this correction ends.

 

After wave ii ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave iii, and we will provide or initial projected endpoint for wave iii when we believe all of wave ii is complete.

 

The alternate is that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 21.81 low and in this case we have started to rally higher in wave (iii).

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved generally sideways this past week closing at 0.917{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave (v) is extending lower, with wave *i* ending at 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} and all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

We are now falling in wave *iii*, which will see negative rates for this market.

 

Within our wave *iii* drop it looks like wave ^i^ ended at 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. It has taken a while but we did finally reach our minimum target of 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} this week, and we are now waiting for confirmation at all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a sharp drop in rates in wave ^iii^, which should see rates go below zero.  

 

Active Positions: Flat!

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude moved sideways this past week, closing at 48.52.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

A run to the 50.00/55.00 level still seems likely within wave -i-, before we get another larger correction in wave -ii- of (iii).

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321su.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 17.51, although we closed lower at 16.78.

 

It looks like wave i ended at 21.73 and all of a very deep wave ii correction ended at 10.67. If that is the case then we are now rallying sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Suncor had a key weekly reversal lower a few weeks ago, which could be suggesting that all of wave (i) of iii is complete at the 19.16 high, and if that is the case then we should expect a wave (ii) correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally.

This might also be suggesting that the rally in crude may soon be ending, with the completion of wave -i- of (iii), and the start of its wave -ii- correction.  

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                                

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3760.20, closing at 3756.07.  

 

We continued to rally higher now in wave -iii-, which has a projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44.

 

In general we have reached our wave -iii- projected endpoint and need to be guard for the end of wave -iii-, perhaps at the 3760.20 high, and the start of a wave -iv- drop.

 

We cannot rule the possible that wave -iii- is going to extend higher, and in that case our next projected endpoint is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 3987.91.

 

Wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. We will provide those levels when we believe that all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 89.47, closing at 89.89.

 

We are still working on wave -iii-, and now look to be heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

It seems like a drop to at least the 88.00 level appears likely before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, although that rally may still be weeks away.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 875.36, closing on its high of 875.36, for a second straight week!

 

 

The CDNX has now reaching our -iii- = 6.25-i- target of 870.15, which is kind of last target for wave -iii-.

 

It looks like wave (v) is not complete at the 875.36 high either.

 

Our next wave $iii$ of (v) target was 866.36, so for our current analysis to remain valid we need wave $iii$ to end soon after which we should expect a wave $iv$ drop to be followed by a wave $v$ rally to then complete all of wave -iii- around the current 875/880 high.                           

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally. 

 

A very bullish count that we are now considering is that all of wave .i. ended at the 758.11 high and all of wave .ii. at the 665.41 low. If this count is correct then the CDNX is not rallying sharply in wave .iii.

 

Wave .iii. has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long-term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan321gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways this past week, closing at 36.02.

 

As you can see in our Weekly GDX we now believe 3 is subdividing with all of wave *i* of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and that we are correcting in wave *ii* of 3, which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The current low for this correction is 33.25, which is still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, but if the wave ^ii^ correction is gold is complete at the 1767.20 low then so is the correction in the GDX at the 33.25 low.

 

For now we will stay with our current count at is suggesting another drop in toe GDX to at least its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} correction level before all of wave *ii* ends. After wave *ii* ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave *iii* of 3, which has already started if all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low.

 

Our confidence level in our analysis is low and we are starting to lean to the idea that the GDX is going to drop lower and test the 31.44 breakout before all of wave *ii* ends.

 

Our updated projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 29.75.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and will add to the GDX at 29.75!

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew