jan 30 end of day update

Captain Ewave Evening Update


As expected, gold was up sharply today! Captain Ewave is on his game! We can declare that wave *ii* of ^iii^ ended at 1252.60, pretty much at the 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of the wave *i* rally. At the time that this post was written, gold had hit a high of 1285.20. So if wave *i* of ^iii^ ended at 1307.00, and wave *ii* at 1252.60, then projections for the end of wave *iii* are as follows:

*iii* = *i* = 1334.50;

*iii* =1.618*i* = 1385.40… preferred by the Captain.

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 1467.80.

No change to current 7 long positions, risking to 1225.00.


Crude was sharper higher in the day session, as we suggested, yesterday and again in today’s Morning Post, hitting a high of 48.30 at the time that this Post is being written. The key for us was the breakout above the down trend line that we talked about, which occurred in the overnight session.

Wave (c) of iv will likely have an impulsive wave structure, although it is a bit too early to say how it is unfolding. Our minimum target for wave (c) is the wave (a) high of 51.20, but we are leaning to the 54.92 level.

In review, our targets are:

(c) = 51.20, the wave (a) high;

(c) = 1.618(a) = 54.92…preferred by the Captain.

(c) = 2.618(a) = 61.92.

We are also thinking that wave iv in crude will likely become more complex and consist of a number of (a), (b), (c) patterns(in complex patterns we can have up to 3 such patterns, separated by (x) waves), that could go on for a number of months. Let is focus on the first (a),(b),(c) for now.

We are long 6 positions, with 44 puts as stops.


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The S&P had another volatile day today, but at the end it looks like all of that action was associated with our wave *b* of ^ii^ correction. Our thinking is that all of wave *b* ended at 1993.38, as shown on the attached 10 Min S&P chart. If this analysis is correct we should now see one more push in wave *c* to complete all of wave ^ii^. It was kind of interesting how the S&P did not rally with the rally in crude!

St comments: it will get a lot more interesting, if the US stk mkt begins tanking as crude rallies, creating a severe panic. I think we’re on the cusp of that.

We cannot rule out the possibility that all of wave ^ii^ ended at 2023.32, as a wave *c* failure. The only reason this is not our preferred case is due to the “failure thing”.

The S&P down 100/150 next week would not be a surprise to the Captain.

(nor to st, and nor to Goldman Sachs’s top stk mkt analyst!)

Modified Recommendation: Short 2 S&P at 2025, Short 4 S&P at 1987. Stops will be at 2064 for a short time, if any of this happens.

We are short 4 S&P at the market, risking to 2063.


Nothing happened in today’s day session to alter our reviews in this market, so we repeated our view here, once again:

“The USDX rallied as expected, but the extent of the rally has created overlap with ^i^(94.95), with is not allowed in EWaves. Although we believe that we are still in wave .iv., we now have a 3 wave drop from 95.86, within wave *a* as follows:

^a^ = 94.95;

^b^ = 95.32;

^c^ = 93.96, to complete all of wave *a*.

The wave *b* rally continued today, hitting a high of 95.26. We are not sure that wave *b* is complete at that level, but what we are sure about is that on the intraday chart, wave *b* is fully of overlapping waves. Upon completion of wave *b* will drop in wave *c* to likely complete all of wave .iv.

We should point out that wave .iv. could also become a triangle, which would currently look like:

*a* = 93.96;

*b* = 95.26;

Waves *c*, *d* and *e* to go.

Remember our projections for the end of wave .iv. are:

23.6 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 93.96;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 92.79.”


An update this weekend.


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The GDX was up, as expected with gold today, as it appears that wave -iv- is over, just like we thought at 21.08. We expect to rally in a five wave impulsive sequence to complete all of wave .i. of -v-. A run to 23.22, would a logically place for wave .i. to end.

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 19.87!