jan 30 morning post

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments: There’s a lot happening with CORONA and DEBT.  It’s important to use the Captain’s Wave Counts as a part of your overall toolbox.  Most analysts try to make their systems fit into their views and other analysis.  The Captain doesn’t do that.  The wave counts aren’t engineered to fit into any particular view the Captain might have. They are just “there”.

 

Clearly, Corona is one of many reasons to own gold, and it “feels” like gold should go higher and the stock market should go lower IMMEDIATELY.  If the wave counts show gold have a little dip to $1536 $1529, or $1510, fundamentals like Corona may or may not change that count, but the count is what it is, until it isn’t!

 

Ewave “Marines” should allocate some capital to core positions based on the big gold Cwave that “rules the big picture roost”.  Some capital can go to the smaller wave counts, but Ewave Marines should not try to magically trade giant core position capital based on all the tiniest sub wave counts.  That’s for the smaller “trading account” capital.  Fundamental events ultimately create the wave counts, events that have happened, are happening, and are yet to happen!

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020gold.png

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session, up to 1582.50.            

 

For the time being we are working on the assumption that we are still in the middle of a developing 3 wave correction within wave $ii$ of *v*.

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave $ii$ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1529.80;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1510.00.

 

Wave $ii$ looks to now be forming a 3 wave corrective pattern with wave !a! ending at 1536.40, and likely all of wave !b! at the 1588.40 high, as shown on our Daily Gold Chart.

 

If wave !b! is complete at the 1588.40 high, then we should now be dropping in wave !c!, below the 1536.40 low, to complete all of wave $ii$.

 

Once wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in higher in wave $iii$.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020si.png

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was high in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 17.76.

 

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, although we are still working on a correction within wave $ii$ of ^iii^, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart.

 

The current drop to 17.28 has now exceeded our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level (17.46)  for all for wave $ii$, so we need to be ready for the completion of wave $ii$ and the start of a sharp wave $iii$ rally!!  

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave $iii$ when we are sure that all of wave $ii$ is complete.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved marginally higher in yesterday’s day session as we reached a high of 54.37, after which we started to move lower. That trend lower has continued in the overnight session as we have raced a low of 51.95.

 

We are now falling in wave *d* of our wave (b) bearish triangle, though we are now waiting for confirmation that it is complete at the 51.95 low. Wave *d* can still far further, but it cannot trade below the wave *b* low of 50.52 for this current triangle formation to remain valid. Once wave *d* ends we expect another rally in wave *e* to complete the wave (b) bearish triangle.

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is complete at the 34.56 high. If that is the case we are now starting to fall sharply in wave (iii).   

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Short Suncor risking to $35.00!                              

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020bond.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield was lower in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a low of 1.553{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We have now updated our wave (iv) count to indicate that it is likely becoming a pure bearish triangle, with wave *a* ending at 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. We are now falling in wave *b*.

 

Once wave *b* ends we should start to rally again in wave *c*, as shown graphically on our Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Wave *c* cannot rally above the wave *a* high of 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, for our current triangle formation to remain valid.

 

Once wave (iv) ends we should fall in wave (v) that has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 3293.47, but we closed lower. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are lower by about 27 points.  

 

On the Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we are not sure of the current wave count within wave (iii). We will update that count in a couple of days.

 

Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat

 

Active Positions: Flat! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020usd.png Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was marginally higher in yesterday’s day session as we reached a high of 98.01. In the overnight session we have moved lower to have reached a low of 97.68.

 

We are waiting patiently for a sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

It is starting to look like we are heading back to the 98.50 high in a complex irregular type wave ^ii^ correction, although we continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020cdnx.png  

 

 

The CDNX was marginally higher in yesterday’s trading session, reaching a high of 578.10.

 

On the Intraday Chart the drop from 591.23 to the current low of 571.42 looks corrective, which is suggesting higher prices lie, after this correction ends!

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts. We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv. Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020gdxd.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan3020gdx60.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session as we reached a high of 28.90.

 

It looks like all of wave -ii- is still underway and has become a flat correction as shown on the Daily and 60 in GDX Charts.

 

We should now be heading back to at least the 27.68 low to complete this wave -ii- correction.  

 

Our retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.35.

 

Upon the completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-, as the next big event in this market.   

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

These have been updated as of December 30th:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew