jan 30 morning update

Captain Ewave Morning Update

Gold:

So, we are now working on the assumption that wave *ii* of ^iii^ ended at 1252.60.

In the overnight session gold has rallied, hitting a high of 1266.50. So far on the intraday chart, this rally, from the 1252.60 low is looking impulsive. We will wait until today’s End of Day Post to post our projections for the end of wave *iii* of ^iii^, but by now you know they will range from *iii*=*i* to *iii*=2.618*i*, as our initial targets.

 

Once we are certain that wave *iii* is over will be raising our stops to  1252.50.

 

No change to current 7 long positions, risking to 1225.00.

Crude:

 

Crude was higher in the overnight session, but more importantly we have broken above the upper trend line of our wave -c- diagonal triangle. Our next target will the wave .iv. high of 46.54.

Assuming that our current EWave count is correct for wave iv, then we need to declare that wave (b) ended yesterday at 43.59, and with that our targets for wave (c) are as we indicated in yesterday’s End of Day Post, below:

(c) = 51.20, the wave (a) high;

(c) = 1.618(a) = 54.92;

(c) = 2.618(a) = 61.92.

We are long 6 positions, with 44 puts as stops, same month expiry as futures.

S&P:

 

The S&P was lower in the overnight session, pretty much as expected. We are likely working on wave *b* of ^ii^, as shown in our 10 Min S&P chart that was included in yesterday’s End of Day Post. After the completion of wave *b* we should rally back to the wave *a* high of 2024.64 to complete wave *c* and all of wave ^ii^.

There is an outside chance that all of wave ^ii^ ended at 2024.64, and therefore we will be heading sharply lower from here. As indicated yesterday a break of 1988/1990, spells doom for the S&P.

Recommendation: Short 2 S&P at 2025, Short 2 S&P at 1987. Stops will be at 2064 for a short time, if any of this happens.

We are short 4 S&P at the market, risking to 2063.

USDX:

 

No change to yesterday’s End of Day Post, relative to the USDX, so we have repeated it here:

“The USDX rallied as expected, but the extent of the rally has created overlap with ^i^(94.95), with is not allowed in EWaves. Although we believe that we are still in wave .iv., we now have a 3 wave drop from 95.86, within wave *a* as follows:

^a^ = 94.95;

^b^ = 95.32;

^c^ = 93.96, to complete all of wave *a*.

The wave *b* rally continued today, hitting a high of 95.26. We are not sure that wave *b* is complete at that level, but what we are sure about is that on the intraday chart, wave *b* is fully of overlapping waves. Upon completion of wave *b* will drop in wave *c* to likely complete all of wave .iv.

We should point out that wave .iv. could also become a triangle, which would currently look like:

*a* = 93.96;

*b* = 95.26;

Waves *c*, *d* and *e* to go.

Remember our projections for the end of wave .iv. are:

23.6 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 93.96;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of wave .iii. = 92.79.”

 

NG:

 

An update this weekend.

HUI/GDX:

 

We assume that wave -iv- ended at 21.08, and we are now heading higher in a multi-week wave -v- rally which also complete all of wave (iii). Our current target is 30.00ish.

 

We remain long all GDX positions, with stops at 19.87.   

                                                                                                                                                                                

Thanks