JAN 31 MORNING POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE DAILY CHARTS UPDATE

 

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan3118gold.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that wave ^i^ in gold is complete at the 1365.40 high, and we are now falling in wave ^ii^. We expect wave ^ii^ to last a number of weeks and retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally.

 

It is a bit too early to determine with corrective pattern gold is to develop into. Our wave ^ii^ retracement levels are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1301.90;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1286.90.

 

Our first projection of the end of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii*=1.618*i*=1495.20.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders that have taken profits can now wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends to re-enter long. We plan to stay long and add at the end of wave ^ii^.   

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops, and will add at the end of wave ^ii^!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan3118si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver traded lower in yesterday’s day session, but higher in the overnight session.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave ^i^ is complete at the 17.71 high, and that we are now falling in wave ^ii^. We expect wave ^i^ to take a number of weeks to develop.

 

We are not sure which corrective pattern wave ^ii^ is going to development into, but we are expecting it to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.68;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 16.43

17.71 high, or if wave ^ii^ is now underway.   

 

Our first projection for the end of wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. =  22.03.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short term traders who took profits can wait until wave ^ii^ develops and ends before entering long again. We plan to hold and add at the end of wave ^ii^.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops, and plan to add at the end of wave ^ii^.

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan3118oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session.

 

We suspect that all of wave *b* is now complete at the 66.66 high and our sharp wave *c* drop is now underway, as shown on the Daily Crude Chart.

We expect a sharp drop back to the lower red trendline in the near term. The drop in wave *c* could take a number of months and likely into the summer.

 

The rally from the wave *a* of .ii. low of 39.19 is not impulsive looking, so we are still expecting that we are correcting in a complex wave .ii. pattern. If this observation is correct then crude will be heading back to the 39.19 low again, once this current corrective pattern ends.

 

Suncor: We now believe that all of wave .b. is complete at the 38.39 high and that Suncor should now be moving lower in wave .c.. Our minimum target for the end of wave .c. is the wave .a. low of 27.73, but we do have lower retracement levels as shown on the Weekly Suncor Chart.

 

Trading Recommendation: Aggressive traders should be short crude now with a 65.00 call as stop.  

 

Active Positions: We are now short, with calls as a stops. We will go long Suncor at 26.00!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan3118sp.png
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was sharply lower in yesterday’s trading session, as we wait for confirmation that all of wave B is complete at the 2872.87 high. With Daily Sentiment also most at 97{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, a top is very near.

 

The S&P is due for a bit of corrective rally, but we suspect that once this rally ends the next drop in the S&P will much sharper that what we have seen in the last couple of days.

 

This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher. If our current analysis is correct, we should expect to see a very large drop in the S&P… 100 plus points in the near future.      

 

This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.

 

Trading Recommendation: Stay short and use calls as stops.

 

Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan3118usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave $iii$ is complete at the 88.25 low and that we have started our expected wave $iv$ rally. We expect wave $iv$ to retrace between 23.6 and 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ drop. Those retracement levels are:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 89.66;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 90.53

 

The wave $iv$ rally should take a number of weeks to develop. 

 

Active Positions: Flat

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan31ng.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session.

 

The rally from 2.57 to 3.63 is now a clear 3 wave pattern which is bearish and is suggesting that NG is now heading back to at least the 2.57 low, but possibility much lower than that…. maybe even to the 1.61 level, in a complex flat correction within a large wave (iv) pattern. We will provide an updated count in the days ahead.

 

Trading Recommendation: No trade recommendation for today, but a shorting opportunity may be at hand.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

GDX:  

 

GDX Daily Chart:

 

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ewjan31ng.png  

Short Term Update:

 

It now looks like all of wave -i- is now complete at the 24.49 high, and we are now falling in a complex irregular type wave -ii- correction, as shown on the Daily GDX Chart. Wave -ii- in the GDX seems well advanced compared to gold and silver, which we will need to watch as it might just become more complex than the expected gold and silver corrective patterns.

 

We expect wave -ii- to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. Those retracement levels are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 22.88;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 22.50.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 32.81.

 

We expect the wave iii will consist of a clear 5 wave impulsive pattern, of which we are now working on wave (i) of that pattern.   

 

Based on that we should expect the following from our current gold stocks/indices:

 

Kinross: Uncertain here. Nested bullish waves might be in play here. 

Barrick: Major low at 13.28, and we should now be heading sharply higher. 

Newmont: Higher with nested bullish waves in play here. 

SSR: Wave 2 still looks to be underway. Wave 1 ended at 19.53, back in July, 2016.  

HUI: Higher now. See Monthly Chart  

XAU: Higher now. See Monthly Chart.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!