JAN 31 WEEKLY CHARTS POST!

CAPTAIN EWAVE LONG TERM CHARTS UPDATE!

 

Gold: 

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan31l21gold.png  

Long Term Update:

 

Gold was initially higher this past week reaching a high of 1878.90, but we closed marginally lower at 1850.30.

                                                                          

We had a key weekly reversal higher 2 weeks ago, which might be telling us something about our current count.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that wave *iii* is subdividing with all of wave ^i^ of *iii* ending at 2077.90. We are now dropping in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1767.70;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1694.50.

 

Wave ^ii^ is still underway and has become a double 3 wave corrective pattern as shown on our Daily Gold Chart, with all of our second wave (b) ending at the 1962.50. We continue to fall in wave (c) which has a minimum target of 1767.20, but likely lower, somewhere within our retracement zone mentioned above.

 

We will be watching to see if we get any follow-through on the recent key weekly reversal higher again next week.

 

Longer term our current initial projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:                                                 

 

*iii* = 1.618*iii* = 2306.30.

 

We do have higher projections also.  

 

We plan to add to our long gold at 1735.00.       

                              

Active Positions: Long with puts as stops, and will add at 1735.00!   

 

Silver:

 

Weekly Silver Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121si.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Silver was sharply higher this past week reaching a high of 27.77, closing at 26.91. We had a key weekly reversal a few week weeks ago, as with gold,, that could be telling us something about our current count.  The Reddit factor is also in play.

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From a strict ewave perspective, we continue to believe that wave ii of 3 is still underway, with the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are working a 3 wave correction pattern with wave a ending at 21,81, and all of wave b at the 28.10 high. We are now falling in wave c which has a minimum target of the wave a low of 21.81, but likely lower…somewhere within our above mentioned retracement zone. We also have another projection of:

 

c = a = 20.00.

 

We will be watching to see if we get any follow through from the recent key weekly reversal higher again next week.

 

Longer term our initial projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 86.50   

 

In the very long term we completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 11.64;

3 = First projection is 86.50.

 

We plan to add to our long silver positions at 19.50.

 

Active Positions: Long at 14.85, with a put as a stop, and will add at 19.50!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Long Term Update:

 

The 10 Year US Bond Yield moved lower this past week reaching a low of 1.001{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but by the end of the week we had closed marginally higher at 1.093{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

It now looks like wave ^ii^ of (v) is not complete at the 1.226 high and that we should now be heading at least back to that high before all of wave ^ii^ ends. Within wave ^ii^, wave -a- ended at 1.226 and all of wave -b- at the 0.504 low.

 

We should now be rallying in wave -c-, which has minimum target of the wave ^a^ high of 1.226, our retracement levs for all of  wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.33{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

We should expect higher prices next week.

 

After wave ^ii^ ends we expect a sharp drop in rates in wave ^iii^, which should see rates go below zero.  

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

Crude Oil:

 

Weekly Crude Oil Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121oil.png

 

Long Term Update:                                                                          

             

Crude moved sideways this past week closing at 52.20.                                                                                      

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (iii), with all of wave (iii) having and initial projected endpoint of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.

 

A run to the 50.00/55.00 level still seems likely within wave -i-, before we get another larger correction in wave -ii- of (iii).

 

In the long term we are now rallying in wave C that has the following projections:

 

C= A = 153.77;

C= 1.618A = 244.78.

 

Suncor:                                                                   

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121su.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

Suncor moved lower this past week reaching a low of 16.61, closing at 16.73.

 

We continue to rally sharply higher in wave iii. Our initial projection for the end of wave iii is:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.73.

 

Within wave (i) of iii it looks like wave -i- ended at the 19.94 and possibly all of wave -ii- at the 16.29 low. If that is the case then we should now be rallying sharply higher in wave -iii-. Wave -ii- did not reach our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so it could still be possible that it is still developing.   

 

Active Positions: Long crude, with puts as a stop. Long Suncor!                             

 

SP500:

 

Weekly SP500 Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121sp.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The SP500 was initially higher this past week reaching another all-time new high at 3870.90, but by the end of the week we have closed sharply lower at 3714.24. We also had a key weekly reversal lower this week.

 

We are now working on the assumption that wave -iii- is now finally complete at the 3870.90 high and that we have started to fall in wave -iv-, which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3657.26;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3525.06.

 

We expect that wave -iv- should take a number of months to develop.

 

In the longer term our initial projected end point for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Weekly USDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121usd.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher this past week reaching a high of 90.88, closing at 90.57.

 

We are now sure whether wave -iii- is now complete at the 89.17 low of whether it is still heading to our next projected endpoint which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

We are watching whether this market is going to break above our upper red trendline that is shown on the Daily USDX Chart.

 

A break and sharp close above that trendline will likely confirm that all of wave -iii- is complete at the 89.17 low and that we have started to rally in wave -iv-. We expect our wave -iv- rally to retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

CDNX: 

 

Weekly CDNX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan31cdnx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The CDNX was initially higher this past week reaching ahigh of 967.03, but we closed sharply lower at 922.06. We also had a key weekly reversal lower.

 

Longer term we continue to rally sharply higher in wave .iii. which has an initial endpoint of:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.02    

 

It now looks like all of wave .iii. is complete at the 967.03 and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave .iv. which has the following retracement levels:

 

23.6 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 898.46;

38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 856.04.

 

After wave -iv- ends we expect another rally in wave -v-.                             

 

Our minimum long term target for the end of wave C is 3341.56.

 

Active Positions: Long the GDXJ, for a long term hold.

 

GDX: 

 

Weekly GDX Chart: https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ewjan3121gdx.png

 

Long Term Update:

 

The GDX was lower this past week reaching a low of 33.62, closing at 34.51.

 

As you can see in our Weekly GDX we now believe 3 is subdividing with all of wave *i* of 3 ended at the 45.78 high and that we are correcting in wave *ii* of 3, which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

Wave *ii* has become a double 3 wave pattern with our second wave ^b^ ending at the 39.01 high. If that is the case then we are now falling in our second wave ^c^, which has minimum target of 33.25, but more likely somewhere within our wave *ii* retracement  levels shown above.

 

Our updated projection for the end of 3 is:

 

3 = 2.618 (-1-) = 66.37.

 

We do have higher targets also.

 

We plan to add to our long positions at 29.75.  

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSSR, and TSX:XGD… with no stops and will add to the GDX at 29.75.

 

Thanks

Captain & Crew