jan 4 morning post!





Short Term Update:


Gold was up in the overnight session, reaching a high of 1075.90, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart the rally from 1057.50 to 1075.90 is looking impulsive, so we are leaning to the idea that wave ^ii^ of *c* is likely now complete at the 1057.50 low.

We want to see this market continue to rally impulsively, to well above the wave ^i^ high of 1081.20, to eliminate any possibility that wave ^ii^ is becoming more complex.

Once we break above the 1081.20 high, we will provide projections for the end wave ^iii^ and wave *c*.  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50, if complete;

^iii^ rally has started.


Longer Term Update:


We have revised our current retracements for the end of wave .b., based on wave .a. ended at 1045.40:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


Lots of gyrations in crude in the overnight session. Upon its opening crude rallied to a high of 38.28, and dropped back to 36.81, before rallying again. The rally to 38.28 does open up the possibility that wave ^ii^ did not end at 36.23, and could be becoming more complex that just a single !a!, !b!, !c! correction. What we now could have is:


!a! = 36.23,

!b! = 38.28;

!c! drop back to at least the 36.23 low, but possibly to our wave ^ii^ retracement zone of:   


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 36.15;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.62.


Only a clean break of the 38.28 high, NOW, would confirm that wave ^ii^ is complete at the 36.23 high and wave ^iii^ is now underway!


For the time being we will assume that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 36.23 low, and that wave ^iii^ is underway.


Long Term Update:


Our updated current wave (iv), looks like:


-a- = 49.33:


*a* = 43.21;

*b* = 50.91;

*c* ending diagonal triangle = 33.98, to complete all of wave -b-;



^i^ = 38.28;

^ii^ = 36.23, if complete:

^iii^ is underway.


Projections for the end of wave -c- are:


-c- = 1.618-a- = 52.72;

-c-= 2.618-a- =  64.30: Our preferred target.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P Futures are down sharply in the overnight session, by about 35 points at the time that this Post was being written.


This drop has eliminated our current short term count and we need to see how we trade during the day session, before we can comment further.


Long Term Update:




Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


The USDX reached 99.04 in the overnight session before reversing sharply reaching a low of 98.12.


On the Intraday Chart the drop from 99.04 to 98.12, look impulsive.


It looks like wave !c! and ^ii^ are complete at the 99.04 high, and we should now be falling in wave ^iii^ of *c*.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.35;


^i^ = 98.01;


!a! =98.66, if complete;

!b! = 97.84;

!c! = 99.04, to complete all of wave ^ii^. Note that the 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level is 99.06.


Wave ^iii^ drop has now begun. We have lowered our stops to 99.05


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions:  Short 5 at 99.25, risking to 99.05!




Short Term Update:


NG dropped to 2.240 in the overnight session, before rallying back to 2.329, at the time that this Post was being written. The drop from 2.385, on the Intraday Chart looks like an incomplete triangle, which suggests that we are still working on wave *iv* of -a-.


We suggested that all of wave -a- may not be complete at the 2.385 high in our last End of Week Post. Upon completion of our wave *iv* triangle we expect a thrust higher in wave *v* to complete all of wave -a- of (iv).


In terms of our trading strategy nothing has really changed as we plan to go long this market at the wave -b- low, which we expect to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally. We will provide the new retracement zone, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- = 2.385, if complete:

-b- drop is next

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels!!




Short Term Update:


With gold being higher we would expect the GDX and related stocks to be higher also. We are looking for confirmation that wave *ii* in the GDX has ended at 13.57, so this confirmation may come today.


Kinross and ABX should be moving higher today also. In terms of CRJ, if we break above the wave *b* high of 0.82, then our wave -iv- triangle option will be eliminated.


CRJ would still be moving higher in a subdividing wave -v-, however, with a target of 0.98.


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57, if complete;

*iii*higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!