jan 4 end of day post!





Attached: the Daily Gold Chart.




Short Term Update:


Gold reached a high of 1083.00, in today’s day session. We can now likely say that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1057.50 low and that we are now rallying in wave ^iii^.


On the Intraday Chart, the rally from 1057.50 to 1083.00, looks like an INCOMPLETE impulsive sequence, so we do expect higher prices moving forward. Projections for the end of wave ^iii^ are:


^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1113.50. Our preferred;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* = *a* = 1089.80;

*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20. Our preferred;

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ rally has started.


Longer Term Update:


We have revised our current retracements for the end of wave .b., based on wave .a. ended at 1045.40:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


The gyrations in crude continued into today’s day session as we reached a high of 38.37, before falling back to a low of 36.34. We did say in today’s Morning Post:


Upon its opening crude rallied to a high of 38.28, and dropped back to 36.81, before rallying again. The rally to 38.28, does open up the possibility that wave ^ii^ did not end at 36.23, and could be becoming more complex that just a single !a!, !b!, !c! correction. What we now could have is:


!a! = 36.23,

!b! = 38.28;

!c! drop back to at least the 36.23 low, but possibly to our wave ^ii^ retracement zone of:   


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 36.15;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.62.


Only a clean break of the 38.28 high, NOW would confirm that wave ^ii^ is complete at the 36.23 high and wave ^iii^ is now underway. For the time being we will assume that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 36.23 low, and that wave ^iii^ is underway.”


We need to make 2 changes to the above statement. The first is that wave !b! ended at 38.37, not 38.28 and it appears that wave ^ii^ is NOT complete at the 36.23 low!


We now expect crude to at least reach that level, but more likely our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone (35.62 to 36.15) before we can say that this complex wave ^ii^ is complete.


Long Term Update:


Our updated current wave (iv), looks like:


-a- = 49.33:


*a* = 43.21;

*b* = 50.91;

*c* ending diagonal triangle = 33.98, to complete all of wave -b-;



^i^ = 38.28;

^ii^ is still underway;

^iii^ rally is next.


Projections for the end of wave -c- are:


-c- = 1.618-a- = 52.72;

-c-= 2.618-a- =  64.30: Our preferred target.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P was down over 50 points at one point today, before recovering somewhat at the close. We do not have a short term count to present tonight, but we could still be working on a complex wave -iv-, which we thought had ended at 1993.96.


Long Term Update:




Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


We were “stopped” out of our short USDX positions, for a small profit!


It appears that wave *b* of .iv. has become much more complex than we had originally thought. We had thought that all of wave *b* had ended at 99.35, but that is no longer the case.  Today’s high in the USDX was 99.30, but we expect that this market is going to at least rally to the previous high of 99.35, to complete all of wave *b*. Upon completion of wave *b* we expect to fall in wave *c* to at least the wave *a* low of 97.59, to complete all of wave .iv.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* rally is still underway with a minimum target of 99.35.


Retracement for the end of wave *b* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.10;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.44.


We plan to short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 100.59


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions:  We nailed a small profit on our shorts, and plan to short again at 99.45, risking to 100.59!




Short Term Update:


We mentioned in today’s Morning Post that NG was probably working on a wave *iv* triangle. That triangle would look like:


^a^ = 2.188;

^b^ = 2.376;

^c^ = 2.240;

^d^ = 2.372;

^e^ = 2.282, if complete.


Of course we know that triangles like to extend also.


Upon completion of this wave *iv* triangle, we expect a thrust higher to at least the 2.385 high, to complete all of wave -a-. Once wave -a- ends we expect a drop in wave -b- to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally, as the next big event.  


We will provide the new retracement zone, for the end of wave -b-, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- is still underway;

-b- drop is next;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels.




See the attached 120 Min GDX, Daily CRJ, Daily Kinross, Kinross Monthly and 120 Min ABX Charts:




Short Term Update:


The GDX was higher today, with gold. No change to our current thinking that wave *ii* ended at 13.57. We want to see this market continue to move higher, first above the 14. 29, then 14.73 highs to remove any doubt that this current rally is all part of some kind of complex wave *ii*.




In terms of our attached gold charts, CRJ reached 0.81, which is getting pretty close to our wave *b* high of 0.82. A rally above 0.82, would eliminate our wave -iv- triangle idea and suggest that CRJ is already rallying in a subdividing wave -v- to our likely target of 0.98.




The 120 Min ABX Charts shows a strong day for this stock, but we now need to break above strong resistance at 7.86/7.87.



Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62 for GDX, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57, if complete;

*iii*higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.






Kinross appears the weakest at the moment, but a break above the 1.97 level should get this market going also.

The attached Monthly Kinross Chart shows a market that is about to break above our upper red trendline. A break of this line should see a quick run to the 3.70/4.00 area.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!!