jan 4 morning post!

 

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan420cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher again in Thursday’s trading session reaching a high of 875.36 and closing on its high of 875.36!!!

 

We continue to work on a subdividing wave (v), and within wave (v) it looks like wave $iii$ is still moving higher although we have now reached our second projected endpoint which is:

 

$iii$ = 2.618$i$ = 866.38.

 

We now need to be on guard for the completion of wave $iii$ and the start of our expected wave $iv$ correction which should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $iii$ rally.

 

We give it another day or so to see if all of wave $iii$ is complete or almost complete at the current high of 875.36. 

 

In the longer term our next projected endpoint for all of wave (v) and wave -iii- is:

 

-iii- = 6.25-i- = 870.15.                                                        

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally.

 

We are now watching for the possibility that this current rally is much more bullish then we had originally thought. In this alternate count, wave .i. ended at 758.11 and all of wave .ii. at 665.41 and we are now rallying sharply in the initial stages of wave .iii.  

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold! 

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421gdxd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX moved sideways in Thursday’s trading session, closing at 36.02.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of *i* of -3- ended at the 45.78 high and that we now falling in wave *ii*, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 30.98;                                                                                     

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 27.49.

 

The current low in the GDX remains well above its 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 30.98, so a continued drop in our incomplete wave *ii* would not be a surprise.

 

For the time being, however, we will still assume that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low, but our current confidence in this assumption still remains very low. If wave *ii* is complete at the 33.25 low then we are now rallying in wave -i- of *iii*, and within wave -i-, wave $i$ likely ended at the 36.92 high and all or most of wave $ii$ at the 34.26. low.

 

After wave $ii$ ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave $iii$.

 

This outcome would mean that gold and silver and going to move higher also and not return to their respective lows.

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave *iii*, when we believe all of wave *ii* is complete.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We will add to our long positions at 29.50.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be completing the updates of our analysis and charts as this week for the following:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices. Add more longs at 29.50.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! Adding longs at 29.50.

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421gold.png

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold moved sideways in Thursday’s day session.

 

In the overnight session we ripped higher, reaching a high of 1942.30!

 

We continue to work on the assumption that within wave *iii*, all of wave ^i^ ended at the 2077.90 high and that we now falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

In the overnight session we have gapped over our red downtrend line, which might be the signal that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1767.20 low and that we have started to move sharply higher now in wave ^iii^….

 

We will wait until we close above the 1966.10 level before we move to this exciting alternate count.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

We will add to our long positions at 1735.00.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. Add long at 1735.00

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! Add long at 1735.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver moved sideways in Thursday’s day session.

 

In the overnight session we have blasted higher, reaching a high of 27.56!

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still working on a complex wave (ii) that we believe is still underway, as we are still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave (ii).

 

Our preferred option is that our wave -b- of (ii) triangle is expanding as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We should be close to finishing all of wave *c* of -b- if this count is correct. It could now be complete at the 27.64 high, and if it is then we should now be dropping in wave *d* of -b-.

 

We will add to our long positions at 19.35.  

 

We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave (iii), when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop. Add long at 19.35.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop. Add longs at 19.35!

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421bond.png

  

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved sideways in Thursday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we are currently trading at the 0.933{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

We have finally reached our minimum projection for the completion of wave -c- and ^ii^ at the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. We have also reached our retracement zone for wave ^ii^, which is:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete the 0.986{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421spd.png  

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in Thursday’s trading session reaching another all-time high at 3760.20. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are up about 18 points!

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Our current projected high for all of wave -iii- of (iii) is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

Wave -iii- is still underway, but we think that we are getting pretty close to its final completion, as we note the ending diagonal triangle formation on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. We have reached the top of the ending diagonal triangle formation at the 3760.20 high.

 

This rally is getting rather long in the tooth we think, and we are due for a significant correction.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.           

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in Thursday’s day session reaching ahigh of 89.97. In the overnight session we have moved lower reaching allow of 89.39.

 

We continue to fall in wave *v* and -iii-. It looks like we are now heading to our second projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, and we will provide those levels when we believe all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

As a minimum a drop to 88.00 is appears likely before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan421oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude moved sideways in Thursday’s day session. In the overnight session we initially moved higher reaching ahigh of 49.83, although after reaching that high we have fallen back to currently be trading at the 48.37 level!

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It may now be possible that all of wave $i$ of (iii) is complete at the 49.43 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave $ii$. We will give this market another day or to confirm this, but if wave $ii$ is now underway then we should expect it to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally.

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

We are watching to see if all of wave (i) of iii maybe complete at the 19.16 high, and if that is the case we should be falling in wave (ii) which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe all of wave (i) is complete.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor.                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew