jan 4 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session, challenging the Christmas break high of 1164.30, and then in the overnight session gold has broken above that level reaching a high of 1168.30, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

The rally in gold last week suggested to us that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 high and that we have started our wave -iii- rally. In yesterday’s morning Post we said this: “On the Intraday Chart The drop from 1164.30 to the current low of 1146.50 looks like a completed 3 wave correction of the rally from 1124.50 to 1164.30. If this observation is correct then a minimum gold is heading back to at least the 1164.30 high.”

Gold did do exactly this and we have now moved higher!

 

We now want to see gold start to accelerate higher to make sure that this current 3 wave rally off of the 1124.50 low becomes a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

Once we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.50 low we will provide projections for the end of wave -iii-. We expect that wave -iii- will be a very powerful move higher, but it will still consist of 5 distinct subdivisions…the impulsive sequence.

 

We will keep our added long trade in for one more day and will likely cancel it tomorrow, as we doubt it will be filled.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.50 low. If that is true then 2017 will see gold rally sharply in wave -iii-. We will keep our added long trade in place for another day or so, but we doubt it will get filled.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00, and plan to add at 1120.00

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher with gold in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 16.55, and in the overnight session after a small correction silver is back at those highs current sitting at 16.53, at the time that this Post was being written. In an Intraday Post yesterday we indicated that silver has reached the downtrend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29, and a break and close above that line should propel silver sharply higher.

 

That might happen today!!

 

Silver has now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii- as show on the Daily Silver Chart. In order to confirm that the 15.68 low is the end of wave -ii- will want to see silver break and close after the down trend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29. Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our projections for the end of wave -iii- when we are sure that wave -ii- is complete. It is not necessary for silver to make one more new low.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 14.50.

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 52.67, and a brief rally in the overnight session crude is back at those lower levels, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop. This final drop will complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

We are now working on the idea that all of wave ^i^ within a larger wave *iii* of .iii. ended at 54.51 and that we are now correcting in wave ^ii^. Retracement levels for then of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;

$c$ drop is now underway with a minimum target of 49.95 … the wave $a$ low, but more likely to our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement levels.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80.

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was higher in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 6 points, at the time that this Post was being written. In an Intraday Post yesterday we decided to go short the S&P risking to 2278.00.

 

We still do not have a clear picture as to whether all of wave -iii- is complete at the 2277.53 high, but we have taken a small short trade anyhow.

 

The S&P may now be showing signs of the end of wave -iii-, but we still are ready to confirm that all of wave -iii- is compete at the 2277.53 high. We will need to give this market another day before we confirm that wave -iv- lower has begun.

 

Projection points do not always work out so we need to warn that we have satisfied all of the minimum requirements for a completed wave -iii- rally at the current high. Wave -iv- could then start at any time. When wave -iv- begins it could take a number of weeks to unfold.

 

We could still see one more rally above 2277.53 before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Light shorts!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was initially higher in yesterday’s day session reaching 103.81, and after that high was made we have moved steadily lower and including the overnight session we have reached a low of 102.81, at the time that this Post was being written.    

 

On the Intraday Chart it now looks like wave *iv* ended at 102.06, and perhaps all of wave *v* at the 103.81 high. We were filled on our added short positions at 103.75.

 

On the Intraday Chart we have a clear five wave pattern from 102.06 to 103.81, and we now want to see the USDX start to accelerate lower. A return back to the 103.81 high would suggest that the USDX is going higher. We have lower our stops to 103.85.

 

We believe that a major top in the USDX may now be at hand.

 

Our current count for all of our third wave (c) is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, if complete, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

As you can see on the previously attached Weekly USDX Chart it looks like our multi-year wave ii correction has become a triple 3 wave pattern. We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and are looking for a major top in the next number of weeks or a month or so.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85.

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was crushed in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 3.268, and in the overnight session NG remains at those lows, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

We believe that wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 3.78 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which as minimum will be a 3 wave drop. Wave  *a* ended at 3.243 low and wave *b* of -ii- at 3.901.

 

On the Daily NG Chart we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii-, but we are still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 3.17, so we expect further downside before all of wave -ii- ends.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c* drop is now underway, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54.

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher and with gold in yesterday’s day session and we expect that trend to continue. We will need gold to confirm that its wave -ii- is complete at the 11124.50 low also, for our wave 3 plan to be correct. We will provide projections for the end of wave 3 once we are sure that gold has completed wave -ii-.

 

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

 

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, if complete to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Wave 3 rally is now begun.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 may now be complete at the 18.68 low also.  

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!