JAN 5 AM UPDATE

Gold:

In our last End of Day Post we provided a fairly detailed analysis and thought process around the gold market. During the overnight session, the conclusions of that thought process have not changed. We are not sure whether this wave ^c^ expanding diagonal triangle is complete at last Friday's low of 1167.70 is complete or whether we will have one more dip below that level the complete all of the ^c^ and wave .ii. Also a break of the top side of the expanding diagonal triangle, now, would confirm that the 1167.70 low is all of wave .ii. That top side trend line connects 1123.80 and 1221.00.

Unfortunately, based on the current strength in the USDX, we would not be surprised to see gold challenge the 1167.70 low one more time.

Crude:

Crude continues lower in the overnight session, hitting a low of 50.91, at the time of this Post. Looks like we are heading towards our target of 50.03. Crude is very oversold and the snap back rally is going to be very large, as we still believe that almost all of wave iii of C is complete.

We were stopped out of our spec positions, in the overnight session.

S&P:

So far it looks like wave .iv. ended on Friday at 2062.30, although it could be possible that wave .iv. is developing into a triangle. The S&P was a little lower in the overnight session. As we noted in our last End of day Post, the current drop in the S&P could have numerous EWave interpretations, with some being much more bearish that the one we have suggested. For the time being will be stay with our current one as shown in our 10 min S&P EWave Analysis Chart that we sent out last Friday.

We remain short 2 spec positons.

 

HUI/GDX:

 

We have repeated our last End of day Post below, and have nothing to add, which is good news!

We have undated our current thinking for the HUI/GDX from our wave ii low of 17.08 is as follows, to include today's trading (Note that the number of subdivisions, with rallies being impulsive and setbacks being corrective is incredible. This market is poised to move sharply higher, likely this week!

-i- = 18.91;

-ii- = 17.16;

-iii-:

.i. = 18.48;

.ii. = 18.76

.iii.:

*i* = 18.71;

*ii*:

^a^ = 18.05:

^b^ =18.60;

^c^ = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:

*ii*:

^i^ = 18.80;

^ii^ = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:

^iii^ rally is now.

This market is suggesting that wave .ii. in gold is over at 1167.70. There is also remote chance that the HUI/GDX is going to re-visit the wave *ii* low of 17.95, one more time in some kind of complex wave *ii* correction, that we are holding as our short term bearish alternate. Only a significant rally above 18.91 would eliminate this possibility.

USDX:

 

Nothing new to add to this market. Still going higher, but we believe this market is stretched very tight and a huge reversal will likely occur sometime this week.

 

NG:

 

The Friday low of 2.96 seems to be the end wave .ii.. As we indicated in our last End of Day Post, the sell-off from 3.09/3.10 was likely the wave .ii. correction. We had a retracement target of between 2.93 and 2.97, with the actual low being 2.96.

It appears that we are now heading higher in wave .iii.. Projections for wave .iii. are:

.iii. = .i. = 3.23;

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 3.40;

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 3.67.

Also a break of the down trend line connection waves -iii-(4.53) and -iv-(3.94) of wave (c) would eliminate any doubt that all of wave iii is complete at last week's low of 2.82.

We are long 4 spec positions, risking to last week's low.

Thanks