jan 5 end of day post!




Short Term Update:


Gold traded sideways for most of today’s day session.

As we have indicated in the last couple of Post, we still do NOT have a complete impulsive sequence from the wave ^ii^ low of 1057.50!


In fact, on the Intraday Chart the drop from 1083.00 looks like an also complete bullish triangle.


If that observation is correct, then we should expect a sharp thrust higher, as the next big event!!


The minimum objective for the thrust is the 1083.00 high, but we expect it will be higher than that based on the size of the triangle formation.


This thrust higher will complete the minimum requirement for our impulsive sequence, and it could also be all of wave ^iii^. Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is 1113.50, as shown below:


^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1113.50. Our preferred;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* = *a* = 1089.80;

*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20. Our preferred;

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ rally has started.


It is interesting to note that gold is rallying with the USDX , at the moment.


Longer Term Update:


We have revised our current retracements for the end of wave .b., based on wave .a. ended at 1045.40:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


As expected crude has finally entered our 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone, which is:   


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 36.15;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 35.62.


The low in today’s day session is 35.76, at the time that this Post was being written. This drop should complete all of wave ^ii^. Upon completion of wave ^ii^, we should expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^.


We will provide projections for the end of wave ^iii^, upon completion of wave ^ii^.


Long Term Update:


Our updated current wave (iv), looks like:


-a- = 49.33:


*a* = 43.21;

*b* = 50.91;

*c* ending diagonal triangle = 33.98, to complete all of wave -b-;



^i^ = 38.28;

^ii^ = 35.76, if complete, to complete all of wave ^ii^;

^iii^ rally is next.


Projections for the end of wave -c- are:


-c- = 1.618-a- = 52.72;

-c-= 2.618-a- =  64.30: Our preferred target.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P up and own today, and closed about unchanged. We have not exceeded the lows of yesterday’s day session.


We still do not have a valid alternate short term count to share with our Subscribers, at this time, but we are still looking at this drop to be part of a complex wave -iv-.  


Long Term Update:


Likely ending all of most of wave -iv-, with wave -v- higher to begin upon the completion of wave -iv-.


Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


The USDX rallied to 99.73, in today’s day session.


This above our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 99.44. Our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level is 99.94 so we are still below that level.


A rally above that level would throw our current count into some doubt, but until that happens we are still working on the assumption that we are working on all or most of a complex wave *b* of .iv.


We were filled on our 5 short positions at 99.45!


Upon completion of wave *b* we expect  a sharp drop in wave *c*, to complete all of wave .iv.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.73, if complete.

*c* drop to at least the 97.59 low is next.

Retracement for the end of wave *b* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.10;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.44;

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.94.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions: Short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 100.59!




Short Term Update:


It looks like our wave *iv* triangle ended at today’s day session low of 2.255. Our updated wave *iv* looks like:


^a^ = 2.188;

^b^ = 2.376;

^c^ = 2.240;

^d^ = 2.372;

^e^ = 2.255, if complete, to complete all of wave *iv*.


This triangle formation could still extend, but the next big event should be sharp thrust higher in wave *v* of -a-, that has a minimum target of 2.385. This thrust higher will complete all of wave -a-.


Once wave -a- ends we expect a drop in wave -b- to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally, as the next big event.  


We will provide the new retracement zone, for the end of wave -b-, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have:


-a- is still underway;

-b- drop is next;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: We plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels!




See the attached 120 Min GDX Chart.




Short Term Update:


There wasn’t too much excitement in the GDX or related gold stocks today. We were hoping for break higher in gold today, but it seems that event will be delayed until tomorrow, we suspect.


As we indicated in our gold comments, above, we are expecting a sharp thrust higher in gold, which should drive the GDX and gold stocks higher in a thrust as well!


CRJ had a low today of 0.77, which is a bit shallow to be consider all of wave *e* of –iv-.   


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57, if complete;

*iii*higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!