Gold broke out above the upper trend line of our expanding diagonal triangle, which confirms to us that wave ^c^ and .ii. are over at last Friday's low of 1167.70. We remain long this market and will move our stops to 1167.60, if/when we breach the high of 1239.00. This could happen this week. Our current stops are at 1141.70.



Crude was significantly lower today, reaching a low below 50.00 at 49.80, at the time this post was written. We have reached our original wave iii target of 50.03. At the current time we see no sign of an upturn except that crude is very oversold and the snap back rally is going to be very large, as we still believe that almost all of wave iii of C is complete.



Note the updated 10 min S&P chart that ST just posted on the site.


We suggested in our previous couple of posts that the S&P had a number of possible EWave counts within the setback that started at the wave B high of 2093.55. As the market started to fall we took the least bearish case, but indicated that more bearish EWave outcomes were available. Based on today's trading a more bearish outcome has presented itself and we have shared that count on the updated 10 min S&P chart, that will be emailed separately from this post.

Based on this updated analysis it looks like we completed all of wave -i- at 2048.78 and all of wave-ii- at 2062.30. We are now falling in wave -iii-, which does not appear to be over yet. The updated 10 min S&P charts provides projections for the end of wave -iii- at 2017.53 and 1989.86. There is an outside chance that wave -iii- could be over at the current market low of 2017.34.

I am short 2 positons, with profits approaching $70k.




The USDX hit a high of 91.78, in today's day session and has dropped back. We might be getting the first signs of our major top, but will give this market another 24/48 hours to see how things play out. This top is still our wave ii of C.




The large reversal in NG during today's day session has clouded or view for the moment, although we do remain long, rising to 2.81.



See the updated 60 min GDX chart.


The 60 min GDX chart tells the story as all rallies continue to be impulsive looking and all setbacks corrective looking, on the intraday charts. As you can see on the 60 min chart wave *iii* has subdivide today. Whenever you get subdivisions like this you should except that this market is going to start accelerating higher in the very near future. Our updated count is below:

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;


-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76


.i. = 18.71;


*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:


*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:


^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ rally is now underway.

It looks like gold has broken out above the top trend line of our expanding diagonal triangle wave ^c^ which could send the HUI/GDX vertical, for the rest of this week.