jan 6 morning post!

Gold: 

 

Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2

 

Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2

Short Term Update:

 

Gold continued higher in yesterday’s day session, as expected, as we reached a high of 1185.60. In the overnight session gold was lower reaching 1174.00, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

Currently on the Intraday Chart the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks corrective which suggest higher prices are still ahead. So far the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1185.60 high, so we are expecting gold will continue to move higher over the next couple of days. We now want to see gold start to accelerate higher to make sure that this current 3 wave rally off of the 1124.50 low becomes a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is :

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80.

 

We expect that wave -iii- will be a very powerful move higher, although it will still consist of 5 distinct subdivisions…the impulsive sequence.

 

We have cancelled our long positions adder trade.

 

Longer Term Update:

 

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.50 low. If that is true then 2017 will see gold rally sharply in wave -iii-.  

 

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session also reaching a high of 16.76. In the overnight session silver a had brief dip reaching 16.34, but in the overnight session silver has recovered…. to be trading around the 16.60 level, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

Silver has now completed all of its wave -ii- at the 15.68 low and we have now broken and closed above the down trend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29. Like gold we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-.

 

Our initial projections for the end of wave -iii- is:

 

-iii-=1.618-i-=27.91.

 

Like gold wave -iii- is silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence.

 

We have raised our stops to 15.67.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980 and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993. We are now working on wave V and within wave V we have the following count;

 

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note that wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!

 

Crude:

 

Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2

 

Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude reached a low of 52.80 in yesterday’s day session but then recovered and in the overnight session that recovery continued as we have reached a high of 54.29, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete. We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop. It is looking like wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive sequence, which we have added to our labelling below. The current rally is a correction of the wave !i! drop. This final wave $c$ drop should complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.

 

Our update count for all of wave .iii. is now:

 

*i* = 49.36;

*ii*:

^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 54.51;

^ii^:

$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;

$c$:

!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.29, if complete, with retracements levels of: 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} =53.70 and 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}=54.07. We have now entered that retracement zone, and we should start to turn down anytime, if our current analysis is correct.

!iii! drop will start after our wave !ii! corrective rally ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Some other projections:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83;

 

Suncor: Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement level when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

 

Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!

 

S&P: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2
 

Short Term Update:

 

The S&P was down slightly in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P are up about 5 points after the release of the Us Employment Report, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

It is now looking like the S&P is going to make one more new high above the current high of 2277.53, before all of our current wave -iii- ends. We did suggest that this could happen in previous posts. Upon completion of wave -iii- we expect a major drop in wave –iv- will begin as shown on the Daily S&P Chart.

 

The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur early in 2017.

                                                                                                  

Long Term Update:

 

Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now be complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2214.81 high. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was sharply lower in yesterday’s day session reaching 101.30 and in the overnight session we have rallied to a high of 101.94, at the time that this Post was being written.    

 

As you can see on the Daily USDX Chart we have now broken and closed below the 101.70, which confirms to us that a major in the USDX had been reached at the 103.81 high. In the very short term will we likely need to test the break below the 101.70 support line. On the Intraday Chart it looks like the USDX is doing that now. WE expect that the USDX will now move sharply lower in 2017, within a multi-year wave iii drop.

 

Our current count for all of our third wave (c) is:

 

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;

-v-:

*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c ) and all of wave ii.

iii drop is now underway and we will start to report on its subdivisions as they develop.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

As you can see on the previously attached Weekly USDX Chart it looks like our multi-year wave ii correction has become a triple 3 wave pattern. We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern and are looking for a major top in the next number of weeks or a month or so.

 

Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85!

 

NG: 

 

Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 

 

Short Term Update:

 

NG was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 3.175, and in the overnight session NG was higher reaching a high of 3.345. The market is currently trading at the 3.25 level, at the time that this Post was being written.

 

As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear five wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low. We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.

 

We believe that wave -i- of (iii) ended at the 3.78 high and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which as minimum will be a 3 wave drop. Wave  *a* ended at 3.243 low and wave *b* of -ii- at 3.901. On the Daily NG Chart we have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave -ii-, but we have now reached the 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 3.17.

 

The wave -ii- correction in NG could be complete at the 3.175 low, but we are still waiting for confirmation. If wave -ii- is complete then we should expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii- as the next big event in this market.

 

Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02

 

Our current count for all of wave C is:

1:

(i)=3.37;

(ii)=2.55;

(iii):

-i- = 3.777, if complete;

-ii-:

*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.175, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.

 

Long Term Trading Update:

 

It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.

 

Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54!

 

GDX:

 

GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792

 

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session with gold and if this first impulsive sequence is not complete then we still expect higher prices in the days ahead. Our first projection for end of wave 3 is:

 

3=1.618(1)=49.95.

 

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  

 

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

 

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c:

(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, to complete all of wave c and wave 2.

Wave 3 rally is now begun.

 

Long Term Update:

 

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 may now be complete at the 18.68 low also.  

 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!