jan 6 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

CDNX: 

 

CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621cdnx.png

 

The CDNX was higher again in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 900.64, closing at 899.85!!

 

As you can see on our Daily CDNX Chart, we have now adopted our very bullish alternate count that is suggesting that all of wave .i. ended at 758.11 and all of wave .ii. at 665.41. We are now rallying sharply higher in wave .iii., which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1357.04.

 

Within wave .iii. we are working on wave -iii-, which has an updated projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 984.77.

 

We still expect higher prices in the short term, with next major resistance at the 935.00/940 level.                                                                                                                

                                                                                        

Longer term after wave .iii. ends we expect a wave .iv. correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave .iii. rally.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long the GDXJ as a long term hold. 

 

Active Positions: Heavily long the GDXJ as a long term hold!   

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621gdx60.png

 

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was initially higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 39.01, after we which drifted sideways to close almost unchanged at 38.50.

 

It is starting to look like all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 33.25 low, although it is currently not clear on the 60 Min GDX whether the rally from 33.25 to the current high of 38.76 has an impulsive wave structure.

 

The 33.25 low is still very much above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave ^ii^. Nevertheless, prices are surging higher which we would expect for a wave ^iii^ type rally.

 

A big test will be if the GDX can sharply break and close above our green downtrend line. If this break occurs then it is likely that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 33.25 low and that we are now surging sharply higher in a multi month wave ^iii^ rally.

 

Failure to break above this line will suggest that wave ^ii^ is still underway and we are heading back to the 33.25 low, and likely lower to our retracement zone.                                                           

 

We will provide our initial projection for the end of wave ^iii^, when we believe all of wave ^ii^ is complete.

 

Our updated projection for the end of wave -3- is:

 

3 = 2.618 (1) = 66.37.

 

We have cancelled our “add to our long positions at 29.50” order.

 

We do have higher projections, however, as gold is likely heading well above $5000/oz.

 

We will be completing the updates of our analysis and charts as this week for the following:

 

Kinross(Updated December 03):

 

We continue to rally in subdividing wave -iii- of (iii), which has a updated projection for its completion of:

 

-iii- = 4.25-i- = 19.25.

 

Within wave -iii-, we completed wave .i. at 10.24 and are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 7.12;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 6.88.

 

We have now entered this retracement zone with a current low of 6.88, so we need to be on guard for the end of wave .ii., and the start of a very sharp rally in wave .iii. of -iii-.

 

Longer term our updated projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 4.25(i) = 21.55.

 

Wave -iii- and (iii) can extend higher also.

 

Barrick (Updated December 02):  We are now rallying in an extending wave iii rally which has the following projection for its completion:

 

iii = 2.618i = 53.94

 

Wave iii still has along way to go and within this wave we are now rallying in wave (iii). Wave (iii) is now subdividing also and it looks like we completed wave -i- at 31.01 and are now dropping in wave -ii- which that following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 21.83;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 19.66.

 

Our current low if 22.22 for our wave -ii- drop is 22.22, which is very close to our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level, so we need to be on guard for its completion at that low.  After wave -ii- ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-. We will provide our first projected endpoint for wave -iii when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 45.24.

 

Newmont Goldcorp: We are now rallying in (v) of iii, which has the following projected endpoint:

 

iii = 2.618i = 107.85.

 

After wave iii ends we expect a wave iv correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entre wave iii rally.

 

HUI (Updated December 01): We are now rallying in wave 3 which has the following projected endpoint:

 

3 = 2.618(1) = 620.32.

 

Within wave 3 we are rallying in wave iii, which has the following projected endpoints:

 

iii = 2.618i = 481.46.

 

Within wave iii, we are now subdividing with wave (i) of iii ending at the 373.85, and we are now correcting with wave (ii), which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 258.18;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 230.77.

 

XAU (Updated December 04): We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 226.55.

 

Within wave (iii), we are rallying in wave -iii- which is now subdividing with wave .i. of -iii- ending at 165.36. We are now falling in wave .ii., which has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 114.04

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 101.93.

 

Wave -iii- has a current projected endpoint of:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 201.84.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long Term hold of all gold stocks and indices.

 

Active Positions: We remain long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSRM, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621gold.png

 

 

Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1962.50. After that high was made we have moved sharply lower reaching allow of 1927.70.  

 

It is starting to look like all of wave ^ii^ ended at the 1767.20 low and if that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave ^iii^. The 1767.20 low is still a bit short of our minimum retracement levels for wave ^ii^ which are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1764.40;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1690.40.

 

We have now cleanly broken above our red downtrend line, but like the GDX the rally from 1767.20 to the current high of 1962.50 does not look clearly impulsive just yet, which is why we are being cautious.

 

A continued rally and close above the 1966.10 high would convince is that all of wave ^ii^ ended at the 1767.40 low.

 

This market is currently setting up for a key daily reversal lower today, and if that holds to the close then the overnight high of 1962.50 is likely the end of our second wave (b). If that is the case then we should now be heading lower in our second wave (c), back to at least the 1767.20 low to complete all of wave ^ii^.

 

Our current projected endpoint for all of wave *iii* is:

 

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 2306.30.

 

We have higher projections also.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops. 

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops! 

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621si.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher continued early in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 28.11. After that high was made we moved sharply lower reaching allow of 27.36.

 

We are currently working on the assumption that wave (i) ended at the 29.91 high, but we continue to work on our wave (ii) drop that has the following retracement levels:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 20.78;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 18.62.

 

We are still working on a complex wave (ii) that we believe is still underway, as we are still above our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for all of wave (ii).

 

Our preferred option is that our wave -b- of (ii) triangle is expanding as shown on the Daily Silver Chart. We should be close to finishing all of wave *c* of -b- if this count is correct. It could now be complete at the 28.11 high, and if it is then we should now be staring to drop in wave *d* of -b-.

 

A continuation of the current rally would suggest that our alternate count is correct and that all of wave (ii) ended at the 21.81 low, and that a sharp wave (iii) rally is now underway.

 

We will provide our initial projected endpoint for wave (iii), when we are sure that all of wave (ii) is complete.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long and using a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Long using a put as a stop.

 

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621bond.png

 

Short Term Update:                                                                      

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend higher has continued in the overnight session as we have reached a high of 1.036{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}.

 

Wave (v) lower is still underway and subdividing as shown on the Daily 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. We completed wave *i* of (v) at the 0.398{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low and likely all of wave *ii* at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. If that is the case we should now be falling in wave *iii*.

 

Within wave *iii* it looks we are subdividing with wave ^i^ ending at the 0.568{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low, but it now looks like wave ^ii^ is becoming a flat correction as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart. Within wave ^ii^ we completed wave -a- at the 0.957{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high and all of wave ^b^ at the 0.504{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} low.

 

It looks like wave ^ii^ is still underway, with our retracement zone for wave ^ii^ being:

 

50 {6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 0.92;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.00.

 

We have now exceeded our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level so we need to see this market turn lower soon, otherwise we will need to conclude that all of wave ^ii^ may not be complete at the 1.226{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high. Our retracement levels for wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.15{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1.33{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

This is our alternate count now as shown on the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart.

 

Our current analysis is still predicting negative rates in the USA in the future.

                                                                                                                                                                                              

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat.

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621spd.png

 

120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621sp120.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 was higher in yesterday’s trading session reaching a high of 3737.83. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures are down about 12 points.

 

Longer term we continue to rally in wave (iii), which has an initial projected endpoint of :

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 4001.14.

 

Our current projected high for all of wave -iii- of (iii) is:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 3710.44. 

 

Wave -iii- is still underway, but we think that we are getting pretty close to its final completion, as we note the ending diagonal triangle formation on the 120 Min SP500 Chart. We again reached the top of the ending diagonal triangle formation at the 3769.99 high after which we moved down to the lower end of that formation. A break now below that lower red line of this ending diagonal triangle formation would suggest that all of wave -iii- is finally complete at the 3769.99 high. This rally is getting rather long in the tooth we think, and we are due for a significant correction.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- drop that should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- rally, which we will provide once we believe wave -iii- is complete.           

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

                                                                                   

Active Positions: Flat.

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan621usd.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 89.17. In the overnight session we have moved higher reaching a high of 89.37.

 

We continue to fall in wave *v* and -iii-. It looks like we are now heading to our second projected endpoint for all of wave -iii- which is:

 

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 86.26.

 

After wave -iii- ends we expect a wave -iv- rally that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -iii- drop, and we will provide those levels when we believe all of wave -iii- is complete.

 

As a minimum a drop to 88.00 is appears likely before all of wave -iii- ends.

 

Trading Recommendation: Flat.

 

Active Positions: Flat. 

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ewjan6221oil.png

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was sharply higher in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 50.59. In the overnight session we moved lower reaching 49.52.

 

We are now working on the assumption that all of wave (ii) is complete at the 33.64 low. If that is the case then we are now starting to rally sharply higher in wave (iii), which the following projected endpoint:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 93.96.  

 

It may now be possible that all of wave $i$ of (iii) is complete at the 49.43 high and if that is the case we should now be falling in wave $ii$. We will give this market more time to confirm this, but if wave $ii$ is now underway then we should expect it to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave $i$ rally.  

 

Suncor: Within wave C we have modified our current count to now suggest that all of wave i ended at the 21.73 high and a very deep wave (ii) at the 10.67 low. If that is the case we should now be rallying in wave iii which has the following initial projected endpoint:

 

iii = 1.618i = 30.28.

 

We are watching to see if all of wave (i) of iii maybe complete at the 19.16 high, and if that is the case we should be falling in wave (ii) which should retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave (i) rally. We will provide those retracement levels when we believe all of wave (i) is complete.   

 

Trading Recommendation: Long crude with a put as a stop. Long Suncor.

 

Active Positions: Long crude with put as a stop! Long Suncor!                         

  

Thanks!

Captain & Crew