jan 6 morning post!





Short Term Update:


Gold has now broken higher, as expected, and we reached a high of 1088.60, at the time that this Post was being written.


This breakout above the 1083.00 high has now satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed impulsive wave sequence that started at the wave ^ii^ low of 1057.50.


Since we are now likely working on wave ^iii^ of *c* of .b., we do have a first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ at 1113.50, as shown below.


We do have resistance at 1088.30 and 1097.40 to overcome on our way to our 1113.50 target area. Our projections for the end of wave ^iii^ are, as shown below:


^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1113.50. Our preferred;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* = *a* = 1089.80;

*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20. Our preferred;

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ is underway….


It is interesting to note that gold is rallying with the USDX, at the moment!


Longer Term Update:


We have revised our current retracements for the end of wave .b., based on wave .a. ended at 1045.40:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




Short Term Update:


Crude was sharply lower in the overnight session, reaching 34.63, at the time that this Post was being written. This is well below the 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 35.62. Our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level is 34.90. Since we are well below the 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level we suspect that crude is heading back to the 33.98 low, at least one more time, before we see the end of wave *b* of (iv).  


Long Term Update:


Our updated current wave (iv), looks like:


-a- = 49.33:


*a* = 43.21;

*b* = 50.91;

*c*is still underway, complete all of wave -b-;

-c- rally is next.


We will provide updated projections for the end of wave -c-, when we sure that wave -b- is complete.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P Future are sharply lower again being down about 33 points at the time that this Post was being written. We will likely exceed Monday’s low, at least at the open of the day session.


We still do not have a valid alternate short term count to share with our Subscribers, at this time, but we are still looking at this drop to be part of a complex wave -iv-.  


On the 120 Min Chart (not attached), the wave patterns from our assumed wave -iii- high of 2116.48 are full of overlapping waves, which suggests this drop is corrective and when complete we should rally, as impossible as that seems, at least back to the 2116.48 high.  


Long Term Update:


Likely ending all of most of wave -iv-, with wave -v- higher to begin upon the completion of wave -iv-.


Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


The USDX rallied to 99.68, in the overnight session. We have no change to our current analysis, so we have repeated most of last End of day Post below:


“Our 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level is 99.94 so we are still below that level. A rally above that level would throw our current count into some doubt, but until that happens we are still working on the assumption that we are working on all or most of a complex wave *b* of .iv. We were filled on our 5 short positions at 99.45. Upon completion of wave *b* we expect  a sharp drop in wave *c*, to complete all of wave .iv.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.73, if complete.

*c* drop to at least the 97.59 low is next.

Retracement for the end of wave *b* are:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.10;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.44;

78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.94.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions: Short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 100.59!




Short Term Update:


So far, our current wave *iv* triangle pattern, shown below remains intact:


^a^ = 2.188;

^b^ = 2.376;

^c^ = 2.240;

^d^ = 2.372;

^e^ = 2.255, if complete, to complete all of wave *iv*.


We are now waiting for our wave *v* thrust higher, which has a minimum target of 2.385. This thrust higher will complete all of wave -a-.


Once wave -a- ends we expect a drop in wave -b- to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally, as the next big event.  


We will provide the new retracement zone, for the end of wave -b-, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


Of course we need to always be on guard for the possibility that our current triangle formation will expand further.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- is still underway;

-b- drop is next;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels!




Short Term Update:


With gold being up about $10, we would expect that the GDX and related gold stocks should be up, at least to start, today’s day session!


A break of 14.29, would give some additional confidence that all of wave *ii* ended at 13.57.


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57, if complete;

*iii*higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!   


Note: NO End of Day Post today, but will send out some key charts for you.