Gold was relatively quiet in the overnight session.  Our next challenge will be a break of the 1239 high, which when it occurs will really get the HUI/GDX going.

We will be adding 2 long positons as 1239.10, and at that time will be also raising our stops to the 1167 level..

We remain long all previous positions, with stops at 1141.70.



Crude hit a low of 46.85 in the overnight session, and then has rallied a couple of bucks. This rally on the intraday charts is looking impulsive which suggests that  wave iii might finally be over at the 46.85 low. We are going to wait for a  little more conformation, before going long this market. The next big event in the market is going to a multi month wave iv rally which should see crude rally between $15 and $25.



See the updated 10 min S&P chart.


We have repeated yesterday’s End of day Post below:


“We believe that wave -iii- ended at 1992.44, which is just a little short of our 1.618 target of 1989.86. We now expect the S&P to rally in wave -iv- to between 2008.93/2019.13, as shown on the updated 10 min chart. We should also trade to the down trend line which is also shown on this 10 min chart. Wave -iv- should consist of at least one 3 wave pattern, but could become more complex like a triangle also.”

After the above post was made the S&P rallied to within our 23.6 to 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement range and also challenged the red downtrend line before selling off at the close. In the overnight session the S&P has rallied back to 2016. We are not sure whether wave -iv- ended at 2016.58. If it has then we will be falling today in wave -v- to complete our first 5 wave sequence from the 2093.55 high. We will be taking profits on our 2 short S&P positons during this wave -v- drop.

If wave -iv- ended at 2016.58, some projections for the end of wave -v- are:

-v-= 0.618-i-=1988.91;



Also wave -v- will likely hit the lower red trend line also.

Upon completion of wave -v- and (i), expect the S&P to rally in a corrective fashion between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the wave (i) drop. We will provide those values when wave (i) ends.

We remain short 2 positions, and do not plan to take profits until we reach the end of wave -v-.



The USDX continued higher in the overnight session, reaching a high of 91.96. Still not sign of top here. Once this market tops, watch for gold to rally start to rally!




Nothing more to add to this market.

We are still long 4 positions, risking to 2.81.



We still like the idea that wave ^iii^ ended at 20.69 and likely all or most of wave ^iv^ at 20.30. We have labelled the updated 60 Min GDX chart accordingly. If this analysis is correct the GDX should rally above the 20.69 high to complete all of wave *iii*. At the moment his market is strong, so corrections will be brief in duration.


We have updated the count below, for waves ^iii^ and ^iv^:

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;


-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76


.i. = 18.71;


*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:


*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:


^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ = 20.69, if complete;

^iv^ = 20.30, if complete:

^v^ to go, to complete all of wave *iii*.

The Captain was able to provide this early morning at around 5:00 am MST, but will be travelling the northeast US until Sunday. There may not be an End of Day Post today, but the Captain will be monitoring the markets and provide intraday posts via iPhone based on market action.