jan 7 end of day post!





Short Term Update:


See the attached Daily Gold Chart.




Gold continued its expected trek higher as we reached 1109.90, in today’s day session, at the time that this Post was being written.


On the Intraday Chart the rallies are still impulsive looking and the setbacks look corrective, so we are still expecting higher prices. We are getting close to our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ at 1113.50, but now that the USDX has started to drop significantly, we could see wave ^iii^ head to our next projected target of 1148.10.  


Since we are in at least wave ^iii^ of *c*, as shown on the attached Daily Gold Chart,  we should hit our first target of 1113.50 before we see a possible correction in wave ^iv^. Our projections for the end of wave ^iii^ are:


^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1113.50. Our preferred;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20. Our preferred;

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ is underway….


Longer Term Update:


Our current retracement level for wave .b is:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also. A break above the upper red down trend line connecting waves -ii- and -iv-, as shown on the attached Daily Gold Chart would confirm that wave 4 or wave ii of 3 ended at 1045.40.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!




See the attached Daily Alternate Crude and Long Term Alternate Crude Charts.





Short Term Update:


We suggested in today’s Morning Post that our current count for crude is likely no longer valid and would to draw your attention to the attached Long Term Crude Alternate Count Chart.


In this particular Chart, you can see that crude is now completing wave b of B. If this is the case then we should soon embarking on a multi-year wave c rally that is going to see crude head back to the 147.27 level to complete all of wave B.


In order to confirm this analysis we would need to break above the upper red trend line of our wave (c) diagonal triangle.


The attached Daily Crude Alternate Count Chart, shows the detailed count of our wave (c) diagonal a triangle. We will talk more about this Chart in the days ahead.   


In today’s day session crude reached a low of 32.10, and then rebounded to a high of 34.22. We do NOT have an indication that the 32.10 low is the end of wave b, at the moment.


Long Term Update:


See the attached Long Term Crude Alternate Count Chart. We will talk more about this chart in the days ahead.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P was crushed again!!! We still do not have a valid alternate short term count to share with our Subscribers, at this time, but we are still looking at this drop to be part of a complex wave -iv-.  


We need to report this very important statement: “On the 120 Min Chart (not attached), the wave patterns from our assumed wave -iii- high of 2116.48 are full of overlapping waves, which suggests this drop is corrective and when complete we should rally at least back to the 2116.48 high.” 


Long Term Update:


Likely ending all of most of wave -iv-, with wave -v- higher to begin upon the completion of wave -iv-.


Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


The USDX was in free fall today, as we reached a low of 98.24, in today’s day session, at the time that this Post was being written. Although the pace of the drop is a bit surprising, we were still expecting the drop as we should be falling in at least wave *c* of .iv.


Our minimum target for this drop is the wave *a* low of 97.59. On the Intraday Chart, the drop from the wave *b* high of 99.73 to the current low of 98.24 looks like an INCOMPLETE impulsive sequence so we are expecting more downside, as the next big event.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.73;

*c* should now be underway, with a target of at least the 97.59 wave *a* low.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


This is becoming very important: We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions: Short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 99.75!




Short Term Update:


Looks like our wave *iv* triangle ended at 2.241 and our wave *v* thrust higher is now underway. Today’s day session high is 2.425. We have also satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed wave *v* thrust as we have exceeded the wave *iii* high of 2.385.


So far we have no indication that all of wave *v* and wave -a- are complete the 2.425 high, but the next big event in NG will be a drop in wave -b-. It is expected that this drop will retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally.  Wave -b- will consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


We will provide the retracement zone for the end of wave -b-, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- is still underway;

-b- drop is next;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels.


HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:


See the attached 120 Min GDX, Daily Kinross, 120 Min ABX, Long Term ABX, and Daily CRJ Chrats.












Short Term Update:


It was a very good day for the bulls in the GDX and related gold stocks sector.


In terms of the GDX we have now broken above the 14.73 high and appear to be booming ahead in wave *iii*. Our next target is the 15.61 resistance level.


A break above this line would confirm that wave B is complete at the 12.62 low and our multi-year wave C rally has finally begun, after a couple of false starts.


We started to accelerate higher as we indicated in today’s Morning Post where we said: “If our current count is correct, as shown on the attached 120 Min GDX Chart, then we should expect this market to start accelerating to the upside.” 


Now let’s look at CRJ, ABX and KGC.


As you can see on the attached Daily CRJ Chart we reached 0.95 at the open and then went quiet. For the time being we have labelled the 0.95 as the end of wave ^iii^ of *iii* of -v-.


If this analysis is correct, then we should expect a small correction in wave ^iv^ before we rally again to at least the wave ^iii^ high of 0.95, to complete all of wave ^v^ and wave *iii* of -v-. Our ultimate target for the end of wave (iii) is still 0.98.


As you can see on the attached 120 Min ABX Chart we crushed the resistance at 8.31. We reached a high today of 8.83, which is very close to our *iii*=1.618*i* projection of 8.78. If this analysis is correct, then we should correct is wave *iv*, before we rally again in wave *v*, to complete all of wave -iii-.


Of bigger significance on the attached Long Term ABX Chart is a possible break of the long term down trend line connecting waves -ii- and -iv. Wave C in ABX may now be underway!


As you can see on the attached Daily Kinross Chart, even it finally came to life today. We expect it will start accelerating higher also.


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57;

*iii* is now underway.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops.