jan 7 morning post!





Short Term Update:


See the attached Daily Gold Chart.


Gold reached a high of 1104.60 in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.

In yesterday’s Morning Post we suggested that gold had completed the minimum requirements for a completed impulsive sequence from the wave ^ii^ low of 1057.50 and that overhead resistance at 1088.30 and 1097.40 needed to be overtaken to sustain the move higher.


We cleared the 1088.40 high in yesterday’s day session and we are now doing the same in the overnight session with the 1097.40 high. We expect higher prices!


Since we are in at least wave ^iii^ of *c*, as shown on the attached daily Gold Chart,  we should hit our first target of 1113.50 before we see a possible correction in wave ^iv^. Our projections for the end of wave ^iii^ are:


^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1113.50. Our preferred;

^iii^ = 2.618^i^ = 1148.10.


Projections of the end of wave *c* are:


*c* =1.618*a* = 1116.20. Our preferred;

*c* = 2.618*a* = 1159.10  


Our current count for wave .b. is as follows:


*a* = 1088.30;

*b* = 1046.80;


^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1057.50;

^iii^ is underway….


Should the USDX now be falling in an least wave *c* of .iv., as we suspect(see below), this gold rally may really start to accelerate.


Longer Term Update:


Our current retracement level for wave .b is:


50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1118.60;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 1135.80.


Wave .b. is expected to consist of at least one *a*, *b*, *c* pattern.


There is an outside chance that all of wave 4 or wave ii of 3 is complete at the 1045.40 low also.


A break above the upper red down trend line connecting waves -ii- and -iv-, as shown on the attached Daily Gold Chart would confirm that wave 4 or wave ii of 3 ended at 1045.40.


Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00.




Short Term Update:


In the overnight session crude traded to 32.10, which is now below the our wave A low of 33.55.


Our current count suggests that this continuing drop is all of wave *c* of -b- of (iv), but we are having our doubts, and now are thinking that this drop in crude is a much bigger low then what we are suggesting. More in today’s End of Day Post.  


Long Term Update:


Our updated current wave (iv), looks like:


-a- = 49.33:


*a* = 43.21;

*b* = 50.91;

*c*= 32.10, if complete, complete all of wave -b-;

-c- rally is next.


We will provide updated projections for the end of wave -c-, when we sure that wave -b- is complete.


Active Trading Positions: Long 15 positions, with 42.00 puts, as stops, plus long 5 positions with 37.00 puts, as stops!




Short Term Update:


The S&P Futures were crushed again in the overnight session being down about 47 points at the time that is Post was being written. We still do not have a valid alternate short term count to share with our Subscribers, at this time, but we are still looking at this drop to be part of a complex wave -iv-.  


We need to report this very important statement: “On the 120 Min Chart (not attached), the wave patterns from our assumed wave -iii- high of 2116.48 are full of overlapping waves, which suggests this drop is corrective and when complete we should rally at least back to the 2116.48 high.” 


Long Term Update:


Likely ending all of most of wave -iv-, with wave -v- higher to begin upon the completion of wave -iv-.

A rally in oil could see the SP “impossibly” make a marginal new high, and then crumple in a meltdown reminiscent of 1929! 

Active Trading Positions: None!




Short Term Update:


We are working on the assumption that all of wave *b* of .iv. ended at 99.73, and that we have started wave *c* lower. Our minimum target for the end of wave *c* is the wave *a* low of 97.59.


In the overnight session, the USDX reached a low of 98.71, at the time that this Post was being written. On the Intraday Chart is appears that the drop from the wave *b* high of 99.73 to the current low of 98.71 is an incomplete impulsive sequence, which supports our view that wave *b* likely ended at 99.73. We expect this drop to continue.


A return back to the 99.73 high, would suggest something else might be happening, so we have lowered our stops to 99.75.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our updated current count for wave .iv. is:


*a* = 97.59;

*b* = 99.73, if complete.

*c* should now be underway, with a target of at least the 97.59 wave *a* low.


Retracement for the end of wave *b* are:


78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 99.94.


Our current count for all of wave -v- is:


.i. = 96.64;

.ii. = 93.83;

.iii. = 100.58;

.iv. is still underway;

.v. rally to go to at least the 100.71, wave -iii- high.


We are also watching our alternate count, and need to see a drop below the 96.64 high for this alternate to become active.


Active Trading Positions: Short 5 positions at 99.45, risking to 99.75!




See the attached Daily NG Chart.


Short Term Update:


As you can see on the attached Daily NG Chart, we believe that we are still working on wave -a- of a possible -a-, -b-, -c-c rally that is all part of a larger wave (iv) corrective rally. Within wave -a-, we have been talking about a developing wave *iv* triangle. During our last Morning Post we suggested that this triangle looked like:


^a^ = 2.188;

^b^ = 2.376;

^c^ = 2.240;

^d^ = 2.372;

^e^ = 2.255, if complete, to complete all of wave *iv*.


We also said at the end of that last Morning Post: Of course we need to always be on guard for the possibility that our current triangle formation will expand further.”


Seems like we are getting our expanded triangle and it now looks like:


^a^ = 2.188;

^b^ = 2.376;

^c^ = 2.241;

^d^ rally is now, but cannot trade above the wave ^b^ high of 2.376;

^e^ drop is still coming, to complete all of wave *iv*.


Upon completion of this wave *iv* triangle we should expect a wave *v* thrust higher, which has a minimum target of 2.385. This thrust higher will complete all of wave -a-.


Once wave -a- ends we expect a drop in wave -b- to retrace between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -a- rally, as the next big event.  


We will provide the new retracement zone, for the end of wave -b-, once we are sure that wave -a- is complete.


There is an outside chance that all of this wave *iv* triangle is complete at the 2.2241 low. A break now above the 2.385 high, would confirm this.


Long Term Trading Update:


Our retracement levels for all of wave (iv):


38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 2.91;

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.29.


For the time being we will assume that wave (iv) is a simple -a-, -b-, -c- pattern, and within that count we have :


-a- is still underway;

-b- drop is next;

-c- rally to at least the wave -a- high, but more likely to our 38.2{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}/50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement zone shown above.


Active Trading Positions: Plan to buy again, when we drop into our yet to determined wave -b- retracement levels!


HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks:


See the attached 120 Min GDX, Daily Kinross, 120 Min ABX and Daily CRJ Chrats.









Short Term Update:


The GDX rallied above our first resistance point of 14.29, in yesterday’s session, but failed to close above it. We suspect that it will today, and we then should be easily heading to our next resistance target of 14.73. If our current count is correct, as shown on the attached 120 Min GDX Chart, then we should expect this market to start accelerating to the upside.  


In terms of some of our selected gold stocks, let’s talk about our current junior star: CRJ.


We had been working on the idea that we were in a wave -iv- triangle, but also indicated that is the 0.82 level had been breached that this option would be eliminated and that wave -iv would have ended at 0.51. In that case, we would now be working on a subdividing wave -v- of (iii).


As you can see on the attached Daily CRJ Chart, our wave -iv- triangle was eliminated as CRJ rose sharply in very heavy volume. We are still expecting higher prices as our next target is the 0.98 level. 


In terms of ABX, as the attached 120 Min Chart indicates we easy broke above a quadruple resistance area around the 7.86/7.87 area. We might come back and test the 7.86/7.87 area, but we are now looking for a run higher to our next resistance area of 8.31.


As you can see on the attached Daily Kinross Chart, this stock is still the weakest, but we expect it will start accelerating higher soon.


Canadian gold stocks are getting a double reward. A rising gold price, and a falling CD$. We are expecting a very major bottom in the CD$ is close.


Long Term Update:


It looks like wave B ended at 12.62, and we have started wave C higher. Within the initial stages of wave C, we have the following count:


-i- = 17.04;

-ii- = 12.92;


.i. = 13.95;

.ii. = 13.19;


*i* = 14.29;

*ii* = 13.57, if complete;

*iii*higher is next.


We need to see a break of 15.61, to confirm our current count for this market....wave B ending at 12.62.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!!!