jan 8 end of week post!





Daily Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38953926950&a=468982039&listNum=2


Weekly Gold Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51063824127&a=473460583&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Gold continued higher this week, as it appears that we can now confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1124.30 low, as shown on the Daily and Weekly Gold Chart.


In Friday’s day session, gold was lower reaching 1171.00.


Currently on the Intraday Chart, the rallies in gold look impulsive and the setbacks are corrective, which suggest higher prices are still ahead.


So far, the first impulsive sequence does NOT look complete at the 1185.60 high, so we are expecting gold will continue to move higher over the next couple of days. As you can see on the Daily Gold Chart, we have shown graphically what the current rally in gold looks like, as we are still just working on wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.  


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:




Longer Term Update:


Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low. We have updated the Weekly Gold Chart, showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-.


Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!




Daily Silver Chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p56845162743&a=465799974&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


Silver was higher this week, as we can now confirm that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 15.68 low, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart.


In Friday’s day session, silver was lower reaching 16.34.


What is also important for silver, is that this week, we broke and closed above the down trend line connecting 19.01 and 17.29.


Like gold, we should now expect silver to be rallying in a very sharp rally in wave -iii-, and should still be rallying in wave *i* of .i. of -iii-.


Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii- is:




Like gold, wave -iii- in silver will consist of a 5 wave impulsive sequence, but we have not shown it on the Silver Chart, as it will take the same form, as we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


Long Term Update:


We completed all of wave III at 49.00 in 1980, and all of wave IV at 3.55 in 1993.


We are now working on wave V, and within wave V, we have the following count:

1 = 49.82;

2 = 13.67. Note: Wave 2 retraced 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave 1 rally.

3 rally has now begun.


Active Trading Positions: Long risking to 15.67!




Daily Crude Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p14014561822&a=439269741&listNum=2


Weekly Suncor Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=W&yr=8&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70680970179&a=406131767&listNum=2 




Short Term Update:


Crude was generally unchanged this week.


In Friday’s day session, crude was stable.


As you can see on the Daily Crude Chart, we are showing a 3 wave corrective pattern within wave ^ii^, which we think is NOT complete.


We suspect that wave $b$ is now complete at the 55.24 high, and we are now falling in our expected wave $c$ drop. It is looking like wave $c$ is going to become a 5 wave impulsive sequence, which we have added to our labelling below.


The current rally is a correction of the wave !i! drop. This final wave $c$ drop should complete all of wave ^ii^.


Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 48.36;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 46.90.


Our updated count for all of wave .iii. is now:

*i* = 49.36;


^a^ = 43.06;

^b^ = 52.20;

^c^ = 42.20, to complete all of wave *ii*;


^i^ = 54.51;


$a$ = 49.95;

$b$ = 55.24;


!i! = 52.17;

!ii! = 54.30, if complete, with retracements levels of: 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} =53.70 and 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}=54.07. We have now entered that retracement zone, and we should start to turn down anytime, if our current analysis is correct.

!iii! drop will start after our wave !ii! corrective rally ends.

^iii^ rally is next after wave ^ii^ ends, and we will provide those projections when we believe that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.


Some other projections:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 80.34;

*iii* = 2.618*i* = 68.83.




Wave .v. and all of wave -i- may now be complete at the 33.79 high. If that is the case, then we should now expect a wave -ii- correction that retraces between 50 to 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} of the entire wave -i- rally. We will provide those retracement levels, when we are sure that wave -i- is complete.


Long Term Update:


We are now working on the assumption that a major low in wave b of B in crude was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27. We have attached our updated Weekly Crude Chart.


Active Trading Positions: Long crude with 48.00 puts as stops, and long Suncor, and we plan to add at 46.80!




Daily SP500 Chart:  https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23570242349&a=440381343&listNum=2  


Short Term Update:


The S&P was higher this week, making all-time new highs on Friday. We reached a high of 2282.10.


The S&P is now within a whisper of our projected end for all of wave -iii-, which is 2285.92, so we need to be on guard for end of the -iii-, and the start of a significant drop in wave -iv-.


This stock market appears to have many similarities to the 1987 top, and we know how that rally ended.


The final top in the S&P is still likely to occur, early in 2017.


Long Term Update:


Wave (v) has become a diagonal triangle. We could now complete all of wave .c. of -iii- at the 2282.10 high.


Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed, by a wave -v- rally.


Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!




Daily USDX Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p32844610873&a=444333428&listNum=2


Short Term Update:


The USDX was lower this week, as it looks like we can confirm that all of a multi-year wave ii rally is complete at the 103.81 low, and that we have now started a multi-year drop in wave iii.


In Friday’s day session, the USDX was higher reaching 102.29.


On the Intraday Chart, we can see a 5 wave impulsive drop from 103.81 to 101.30, so we now expect a corrective rally for that drop.


We have labeled the initial drop of 101.30 as: wave *i*, and the current rally wave *ii*.


Retracement levels for wave *ii* are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.56;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 102.85.


Since our current high for this corrective rally is 102.29, we expect some further upside before all of wave *ii* ends, and another sharp drop in wave *iii* begins.


We expect that the USDX will now move sharply lower in 2017, within a multi-year wave iii drop.


Our current count for wave (c), and the start of iii is:

-i- = 99.09;

-ii- = 97.56;

-iii- = 101.97;

-iv- = 99.24;


*i* = 101.77;

*ii* = 100.77;

*iii* = 103.57;

*iv*= 102.06;

*v*= 103.81, to complete all of wave -v-, our third wave (c) and all of wave ii.


*i* = 101.30;

*ii* rally is now, which should end with our retracement levels identified above.


Long Term Trading Update:


We have now satisfied the minimum requirements for that triple 3 wave pattern, and it looks like all of wave ii ended at the 103.81 high.


Active Trading Positions: Short at 102.45, and 103.75, risking all to 103.85!




Daily NG Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s={6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}24NATGAS&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=15&id=p65944864657&a=406131751&listNum=2 


Short Term Update:


NG was sharply lower this week, as we have now satisfied the minimum requirements for completed a wave -ii- correction at the 3.175 low.


In Friday’s day session, NG was higher reaching 3.345.


As you can see on the Daily NG Chart, we have a clear 5 wave impulsive rally from 1.61 to 3.37, which is then followed, by a 3 wave correction that ended at the 2.55 low.


We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has much higher to go. We have an initial projection for the end of wave (iii) at 5.40.  


The wave -ii- correction in NG could be complete at the 3.175 low, but we are still waiting for confirmation.


On The Intraday Chart, the rally from 3.174 to 3.345 looks like a 3 wave affair, which is bearish and is suggesting, that NG will revisit the 3.175 low again, before all of wave -ii- ends.


If wave -ii- is complete, then we should expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-, as the next big event in this market.


Retracement levels for all of wave -ii- are:

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.17;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 3.02.


Our current count for all of wave C is:





-i- = 3.777, if complete;


*a* = 3.243;

*b* = 3.901;

*c*= 3.175, if complete, to complete all of wave -ii-.


Long Term Trading Update:


It appears that all of wave B is complete at the 1.61 low. If this analysis is correct, then NG is heading back to the 15.78 high in the years ahead.


Active Trading Positions: Going long at 3.015, risking to 2.54!




GDX Daily Chart: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69428674460&listNum=2&a=462053792












Short Term Update:


The GDX was higher this week with gold, as we can now confirm that all of wave 2 is complete at the 18.68 low. A wave 3 rally sharply higher is now underway.


In Friday’s day session, the GDX was slightly lower with gold.


The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture, which is shown on the Daily Gold Chart.


Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:




As with gold and silver, this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions.  


Our updated count for wave 2 is:

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;


(i) = 22.50;

(ii) = 25.93;

(iii) = 20.14;

(iv) = 21.74;

(v) = 18.68, to complete all of wave c and wave 2;

Wave 3 rally is now begun.


Long Term Update:


See the attached Weekly Charts: for our selected gold charts, and the Daily Chart of Silver Standard. All appear to have satisfied the minimum requirements for their respective corrections, and are poised to move sharply higher with gold.


In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79, and wave 2 at the 18.68 low.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.


Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!