jan 8 morning post!

Captain Ewave Morning Post!

 

Editor Comments:

 

 

Gold:  

 

Daily Gold Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820gol.png Short Term Update: 

 

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session, and that trend continued early the overnight session as we spiked sharply higher on the Iran missile attack, as gold reached a high of 1613.00. We have pulled back since then, to the 1569.00 level.            

 

We are now rallying in wave *v*, and we have now shown its internal wave structure on the Daily Gold Chart.

 

We believe that we are now rallying !iii! of $iii$, which is still underway, although it could be complete at the overnight spike high of 1613.00.

 

Should we continue to rally in wave !iii!, our next projected endpoint is:

 

!iii! = 4.25!i!=1635.90.

 

Upon completion of wave !iii! we expect a correction in wave !iv!, before we rally again in wave !v! to complete all of wave $iii$.

 

One current projection for the end of wave *v* and wave .iii. is:

 

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 1704.40.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Silver:

 

Daily Silver Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820si.png Short Term Update:

 

Silver was higher in yesterday’s day session, and that trend continued early in the overnight  session, as with gold, as we reached a high of 18.89. We are now trading at the 18.26 level.    

                                                                                                                                              

We continue to rally in wave ^iii^, and are now getting close to completing all of wave $i$ of ^iii^, as shown on the Daily Silver Chart, as we have reached our 18.80/18.85 level.

 

Wave $i$ is likely complete at the 18.89 high, in high case we should now be falling in wave $ii$.

 

Our initial projection for the end of all of wave ^iii^ is:

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 25.44! 

 

Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

Crude Oil and Suncor:

 

Daily Crude Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820oil.png  

 

Short Term Update:

 

Crude was lower in yesterday’s day session as we reached a low of 62.12. In the overnight session we initially rallied sharply higher with the Iranian missile attack as we reached a high of 65.65.

 

We have since dropped off sharply, giving up all of the overnight gains, are trading at the 61.76 level!!

 

Our wave (b) of b bearish triangle is now extending, as shown on the Daily Crude Chart. We are now rallying in wave $c$ of *c*, which is likely now complete with the blow-off at the 65.65 high.  Our current wave (b) bearish triangle will be eliminated if we continue to rally above the 66.60 high. Once wave *c* ends we should expect a wave *d* drop that will be followed by a wave *e* rally to complete all of the wave (b) bearish triangle.   

 

Suncor: Wave (ii) is still underway, although we have now satisfied the minimum requirements for its completion at the 34.11 high. We have also now entered our 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level of 34.04, so wave (ii) is likely now complete. Once wave (ii) ends we should see Suncor start to drop sharply in wave (iii).

 

Trading Recommendation: Short with a 60.00 call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short with a 60 call as a stop!                                

  

US 10 Year Bond Yield:

 

Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820oil.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The US 10 Year Bond Yield moved high in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 1.828{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}. In the overnight session we dropped sharply initially to reach a low of 1.700{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but have since recovered all of those losses to be trading at the 1. 818{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

It is now looking like wave (iv) is still underway and becoming more complex. On the Daily US 10 Year Bond Yield Chart we have shown a possible internal wave count for wave (iv) which includes a bullish triangle that is getting close to ending.

 

Once wave *b* of (iv) ends we expect a rally back to at least the 1.971{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} high is wave *c* to complete all of wave (iv). For our current wave *b* triangle to remain valid we cannot drop below the 1.693{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} level.

 

Otherwise… this triangle is likely expanding and extending.  

 

Once wave (iv) ends we suspect that wave (v) has a minimum target of 1.336{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}, but we suspect a drop to 1.000{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} should be expected.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}

 

Active Positions: Short risking to 2.250{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1}!

 

S&P500: 

 

Daily SP500 Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820spd.png 120 Minute SP500 Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820sp120.png

Short Term Update:

 

The SP500 moved sideways in yesterday’s trading session. In the overnight session the SP500 Futures was initially down sharply but has recovered all of those losses to be up about 7 points!!

 

On the 120 Min SP500 Chart we have shown that we are now rallying in wave $v$ of -c-, if our bearish count alternate count is correct. It could finally be possible that all of wave $v$ of -c- is now complete at the 3258.14 high and that a sharp drop has now begun in wave (c) of iv.

 

The SP500 has continues to reach all time new highs, but we are still thinking that the bearish counts case is also possible. On our Daily and 120 Min SP500 Charts we have shown our alternate bearish count that is suggesting the wave -b- has become a double 3 corrective wave pattern.

 

For now, our current bullish is still preferred. Our subdividing wave (iii) that has initial projection of:

 

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 3711.83.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short at 2950.0, with a call as a stop.

 

Active Positions: Short at 2950.00, with a call as stop! 

 

USDX:

 

Daily USDX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820usd.png

Short Term Update:

 

The USDX was higher in yesterday’s day session and that trend has continued in the overnight session as we have reached high of 96.95.

 

On the Intraday Chart we have a 3 wave rally in place from 96.02 to the current high of 96.95, which is a bearish sign. We are waiting for sharp break below our lower red trend line connecting 95.17 and 95.36.

 

We have now reached our 61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement level for wave ^ii^, so we need to be on guard for its completion and the start of sharp wave ^iii^ lower. Our retracement levels for all wave ^ii^ are:

 

50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.11;

61.8{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} = 98.40.

 

We continue to work on the assumption that all of wave (ii) ended at 99.33. Once wave (ii) ends we expect a sharp wave (iii) drop will be the next big event in this market.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short, risking to 100.00.

 

Active Positions: Short, risking to 100.00! 

 

CDNX: 

 

120 Min CDNX Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820cdnx.png  

Daily CDNX Chart:

TBA

 

The CDNX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, after falling the previous day, as we reached a high of 585.63.

 

We have updated our count to now suggest that wave .iv. of -v- is still underway and has become flat type corrective pattern, as shown on the Daily and 120 Min CDNX Charts.

 

We should now be heading back to the wave -a- high of 641.50 to complete wave -c- of .iv.

 

Once wave .iv. ends we expect one final drop in wave .v. to complete all of wave -v- and B.

 

Longer term our ultimate target for the end of this wave -v- and B is the 487.01 low, which will mark the completion of wave B and the start of a massive wave C rally, as shown on the Weekly CNDX Chart.  

 

GDX & Gold Stocks:

 

GDX 60 Min Chart:

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820gdx60.png

GDX Daily Chart:  

https://captainewave.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ewjan820gdxd.png  

Short Term Update:

 

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session and we reached a high of 29.52.

 

We continue to rally in wave -i- of (v), with our detailed internal wave count for wave -i- being shown now on our 60 Min GDX Chart. Assuming that wave ^iv^ is complete at the 29.01 low, then we should still be working on wave ^v^ of $iii$ of -i-.  

 

A run to at least the 30.95 high still appears likely….

 

With our current gold count it could be possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart. In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:

 

(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42.

 

Longer term our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:

 

3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!!

 

These have been updated as of December 30th:

 

Kinross: We are now rallying in wave (iii), which has initial projection of 9.68, with a short term target of 5.82.

 

Barrick:  We are now rallying in wave (iii) rally, which has an initial projection of 37.10, with a short term target of 22.71.

 

HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:

 

iii = 1.618i = 225.92;

iii = 2.618i = 275.05.

 

In the short term a run to 286.05 seems likely.

 

XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:

 

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;

-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.

 

In the short term a run to 101.76 seems likely.

 

Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.

 

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!! 

 

 

Thanks!

Captain & Crew