JAN 9 AM UPDATE

Gold:

 

Not much happened in the gold market in the overnight session. On the intraday charts, since the high of 1223.30, gold has many overlapping waves, which means this minor sell-off is a correction. The main trend line in gold is higher.

We will be adding 2 long positons at 1239.10, and at that time will be also raising our stops to the 1167 level.

We remain long all previous positions, risking to 1141.70.

Crude:

 

Crude was almost motionless in the overnight session, so yesterday's End of Day Post remains unchanged:

"Crude has rallied since hitting the low at 46.85, but the rally has been full of overlapping waves on the intraday chart. Now we know that if wave iii is now over at 46.85 that the wave iv rally will be corrective in nature...which means an overlapping wave structure should be expected. However, we would expect that after being so oversold that crude would signal the end of wave iii with a very large volume up day. This we have not seen, so we are a little skeptical that wave iii ended at 46.85. Based on that we will give this market a few more days to see if we get our sharp rally higher."

S&P:

 

See the updated 10 min S&P chart.

 

As we suggested in yesterday's End of Day Post and also have labelled on our updated 10 min S&P chart, all or most of wave (ii) should be complete at the current levels. On the 10 min chart you can see an ending diagonal triangle wave -c-. As we saw a few weeks or so ago, when the S&P was at the 2093 level, ending diagonal triangles can be very reliable in predicting trend changes.

Also as we stated yesterday, for this analysis to remain valid we would not want the S&P to rally very much above the 78.6{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} value of 2072.00.

In the overnight session the S&P was down about 8 points at the time that this post is being written.

 

If wave (ii) has ended or is about to end the next main event in S&P will be a PLUNGE in WAVE (iii).

Recommendation: We will short additional positions at the market when we break the lower trend line of the diagonal triangle. We will then lower our risk point to the wave (ii) high. An intraday post will be issued if this happens.

At the moment we are short 2 positions, risking to 2093.60.

USDX:

 

Nothing happened in the overnight session in this market either, although the USDX was down a little. Still no sign of a top.

 

NG:

 

Nothing more to add to this market, as it did nothing in the overnight session. We repeat: "Only a break of the down trend line connecting 4.53 and 3.94, would finally suggest that wave ii is complete at 2.81."

We are still long 4 positions, risking to 2.81.

HUI/GDX:

 

See the updated 60 min GDX chart.

If wave ^iv^ ended at 19.61, as we suspect then the HUI/GDX should move higher for next couple of days in wave ^v^. This last leg up should complete all of wave *iii*. Our minimum target for wave ^v^ is the wave ^iii^ high of 20.69.

 

No changes to the current count that is graphically shown on our  60 min GDX chart:

(i) = 18.91;

(ii) = 17.16;

(iii):

-i- = 18.48;

-ii- = 18.76

-iii-:

.i. = 18.71;

.ii.:

*a* = 18.05:

*b* = 18.60;

*c* = 17.95, to complete all of wave *ii*:

.iii.:

*i* = 18.80;

*ii* = 18.40. Note that 50{6662cb326f536db879050e93fbe8de36d93608a2a48b01f600643f4328fc39a1} retracement is 18.38:

*iii*:

^i^ = 19.26;

^ii^ = 18.76;

^iii^ = 20.69:

^iv^ = 19.61, if complete;

^v^ rally to go to at least the wave ^iii^ high of 20.69.

Thanks!